mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting

arXiv 2310.10688 ↗First posted 14 Oct 2023cs.CL cs.AI cs.LGcited by 650

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Cited by 20 in LLM reasoning, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Key facts. Cited by 650 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 30 of its 59 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Oct 2023.

Builds on

30 of 59 references.

References · 30

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
  3. 2020Scaling Laws for Neural Language Modelscited by 6,411
  4. 2022Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Modelscited by 2,927
  5. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,141
  6. 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 1,981
  7. 2016WaveNet: A Generative Model for Raw Audiocited by 1,710
  8. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,654
  9. 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,400
  10. 2022FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 1,200
  11. 2018Model Cards for Model Reportingcited by 1,068
  12. 2017DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networkscited by 1,004
18 more
  1. 2019N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecastingcited by 744
  2. 2023One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LMcited by 615
  3. 2023Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasterscited by 491
  4. 2018Generating Wikipedia by Summarizing Long Sequencescited by 333
  5. 2023Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encodercited by 327
  6. 2021Monash Time Series Forecasting Archivecited by 256
  7. 2023TSMixer: An All-MLP Architecture for Time Series Forecastingcited by 232
  8. 2017A Multi-Horizon Quantile Recurrent Forecastercited by 211
  9. 2016Temporal Convolutional Networks: A Unified Approach to Action Segmentationcited by 199
  10. 2019Think Globally, Act Locally: A Deep Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Time Series Forecastingcited by 161
  11. 2023TimeGPT-1cited by 149
  12. 2013Gaussian Process Kernels for Pattern Discovery and Extrapolationcited by 131
  13. 2017Conditional Time Series Forecasting with Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 121
  14. 2021Darts: User-Friendly Modern Machine Learning for Time Seriescited by 90
  15. 2020Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecastingcited by 70
  16. 2023A Survey on Time-Series Pre-Trained Modelscited by 52
  17. 2023Feature Importance: A Closer Look at Shapley Values and LOCOcited by 23
  18. 2021On the benefits of maximum likelihood estimation for Regression and Forecastingcited by 8

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 2; 2024: 108; 2025: 224; 2026: 316.

650 papers.

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  1. 2024Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Seriescited by 712
  2. 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 588
  3. 2024MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Modelscited by 453
  4. 2024Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Expertscited by 280
  5. 2024Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Modelscited by 198
  6. 2024Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmarkcited by 191
  7. 2024GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluationcited by 188
  8. 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 168
  9. 2024Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 163
  10. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 158
  11. 2024Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Seriescited by 120
  12. 2025TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learningcited by 107
38 more
  1. 2024ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilitiescited by 104
  2. 2024Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Modelscited by 102
  3. 2024UniTS: A Unified Multi-Task Time Series Modelcited by 93
  4. 2024Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Expertscited by 88
  5. 2024VisionTS: Visual Masked Autoencoders Are Free-Lunch Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasterscited by 87
  6. 2024Large Language Model (LLM) for Telecommunications: A Comprehensive Survey on Principles, Key Techniques, and Opportunitiescited by 83
  7. 2024Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecastingcited by 83
  8. 2023GIVT: Generative Infinite-Vocabulary Transformerscited by 80
  9. 2024Large Scale Transfer Learning for Tabular Data via Language Modelingcited by 73
  10. 2024Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysiscited by 65
  11. 2025Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecastingcited by 59
  12. 2024Scaling Wearable Foundation Modelscited by 57
  13. 2025This Time is Different: An Observability Perspective on Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 57
  14. 2025fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecastingcited by 52
  15. 2023ImputeFormer: Low Rankness-Induced Transformers for Generalizable Spatiotemporal Imputationcited by 50
  16. 2025MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answeringcited by 50
  17. 2025From Tables to Time: Extending TabPFN-v2 to Time Series Forecastingcited by 49
  18. 2024Time Series Forecasting with LLMs: Understanding and Enhancing Model Capabilitiescited by 48
  19. 2024Position: What Can Large Language Models Tell Us about Time Series Analysiscited by 47
  20. 2024TimeSeriesExam: A time series understanding examcited by 47
  21. 2024Toto: Time Series Optimized Transformer for Observabilitycited by 44
  22. 2025DBLoss: Decomposition-based Loss Function for Time Series Forecastingcited by 44
  23. 2024Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecastingcited by 40
  24. 2025TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loopcited by 39
  25. 2025TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecastercited by 36
  26. 2024TimeDiT: General-purpose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series Foundation Modelcited by 33
  27. 2024Scaling Law for Time Series Forecastingcited by 31
  28. 2024Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfercited by 31
  29. 2024In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Modelscited by 31
  30. 2024Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 30
  31. 2025LightGTS: A Lightweight General Time Series Forecasting Modelcited by 28
  32. 2025Aurora: Towards Universal Generative Multimodal Time Series Forecastingcited by 28
  33. 2024Enhancing Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting via Wavelet-based Tokenizationcited by 26
  34. 2025Harnessing Vision Models for Time Series Analysis: A Surveycited by 26
  35. 2025OLinear: A Linear Model for Time Series Forecasting in Orthogonally Transformed Domaincited by 25
  36. 2026It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarkscited by 25
  37. 2026Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scalingcited by 24
  38. 2024Towards Urban General Intelligence: A Review and Outlook of Urban Foundation Modelscited by 23

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