Towards Foundation Models for Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detection: Leveraging Synthetic Data and Relative Context Discrepancy
On the map: Synthetic data and self-improvement for LLMs → Model collapse from synthetic data
Abstract (arXiv)
Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains challenging. Existing foundation models for TSAD often rely on reconstruction-error scoring at inference time, which can miss subtle anomalies that are well reconstructed and can falsely flag complex but normal patterns in unseen domains. We introduce TimeRCD, a foundation model for TSAD built on Relative Context Discrepancy (RCD), a pre-training paradigm that trains the model to detect anomalies by comparing a query pattern with its surrounding context. This relational formulation, implemented with a standard Transformer architecture, enables the model to infer normality from the input context rather than relying on fixed global normal patterns. We further construct a large-scale synthetic corpus with context-dependent anomaly labels to provide supervised pre-training signals for RCD. Experiments across diverse benchmarks show that TimeRCD outperforms existing general-purpose and anomaly-specific foundation models in most zero-shot TSAD settings, while remaining competitive with dataset-specific full-shot baselines. These results provide empirical evidence that RCD is an effective direction for building robust and generalizable TSAD models.
Key facts. Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Model collapse from synthetic data, one of 13 directions in Synthetic data and self-improvement for LLMs. Builds on 29 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Sep 2025.
Builds on
29 of 46 references.
Closest ancestors · 1
Same direction, newest first
- 2024ChatTS: Aligning Time Series with LLMs via Synthetic Data for Enhanced Understanding and Reasoning4 Dec
Other references · 28
- 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
- 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 2,039
- 2024Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Seriescited by 759
- 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 692
- 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 614
- 2024MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Modelscited by 482
- 2021Anomaly Transformer: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Association Discrepancycited by 394
- 2024Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Expertscited by 287
- 2022TranAD: Deep Transformer Networks for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Datacited by 214
- 2018A Deep Neural Network for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection and Diagnosis in Multivariate Time Series Datacited by 182
- 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 180
- 2019Time-Series Anomaly Detection Service at Microsoftcited by 165
16 more
- 2022Deep Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection: A Surveycited by 131
- 2023ForecastPFN: Synthetically-Trained Zero-Shot Forecastingcited by 104
- 2023DCdetector: Dual Attention Contrastive Representation Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detectioncited by 103
- 2024UniTS: A Unified Multi-Task Time Series Modelcited by 94
- 2024CATCH: Channel-Aware multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Frequency Patchingcited by 94
- 2022Local Evaluation of Time Series Anomaly Detection Algorithmscited by 79
- 2024TimeSeriesExam: A time series understanding examcited by 49
- 2024Towards a General Time Series Anomaly Detector with Adaptive Bottlenecks and Dual Adversarial Decoderscited by 38
- 2025TimePFN: Effective Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Synthetic Datacited by 29
- 2021CALDA: Improving Multi-Source Time Series Domain Adaptation with Contrastive Adversarial Learningcited by 23
- 2024Position: Quo Vadis, Unsupervised Time Series Anomaly Detection?cited by 17
- 2024Mamba4Cast: Efficient Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting with State Space Modelscited by 17
- 2022AER: Auto-Encoder with Regression for Time Series Anomaly Detectioncited by 8
- 2024DACAD: Domain Adaptation Contrastive Learning for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Seriescited by 7
- 2025Patch-based Memory Gate Model in Time Series Foundation Modelcited by 4
- 2025CICADA: Cross-Domain Interpretable Coding for Anomaly Detection and Adaptation in Multivariate Time Seriescited by 3
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 9.
10 papers.
- 2026From Zero to Hero: Advancing Zero-Shot Foundation Models for Tabular Outlier Detectioncited by 9
- 2025AXIS: Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection with Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2026OATS: Online Data Augmentation for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 3
- 2026Tabby: An Open Pretraining Recipe for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 1
- 2026VETime: Vision Enhanced Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detectioncited by 0
- 2026LLM-Generated Feature Pools for Time Series Anomaly Detectioncited by 0
- 2026Beyond Empirical Support: Structured Outlier Generation via Sinkhorn Optimal Transportcited by 0
- 2026Supervision Recovery for Time Series Anomaly Detection via Context-Anchored Pairingcited by 0
- 2026Generalist Representation, Specialist Detection: TS-Router for Time-Series Anomaly Detectioncited by 0
- 2026Anlu: Enabling In-Context Time Series Anomaly Detection in Foundation Models via Counterfactual Supervisioncited by 0
- 2026Anlu: Enabling In-Context Time Series Anomaly Detection in Foundation Models via Counterfactual Supervision5 Oct 2026
- 2026Generalist Representation, Specialist Detection: TS-Router for Time-Series Anomaly Detection1 Oct 2026
- 2026Supervision Recovery for Time Series Anomaly Detection via Context-Anchored Pairing27 Sep 2026
- 2026Beyond Empirical Support: Structured Outlier Generation via Sinkhorn Optimal Transport25 Sep 2026
- 2026LLM-Generated Feature Pools for Time Series Anomaly Detection18 Sep 2026
- 2026Tabby: An Open Pretraining Recipe for Time Series Foundation Models12 Sep 2026
- 2026VETime: Vision Enhanced Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detection18 Feb 2026
- 2026From Zero to Hero: Advancing Zero-Shot Foundation Models for Tabular Outlier Detection3 Feb 2026
- 2026OATS: Online Data Augmentation for Time Series Foundation Models26 Jan 2026
- 2025AXIS: Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection with Large Language Models29 Sep 2025
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
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- 2026Detecting Time Series Anomalies Like an Expert: A Multi-Agent LLM Framework with Specialized Analyzers
- 2026BoundAD: Boundary-Aware Negative Generation for Time Series Anomaly Detection
- 2023Contaminated Multivariate Time-Series Anomaly Detection with Spatio-Temporal Graph Conditional Diffusion Models
- 2024See it, Think it, Sorted: Large Multimodal Models are Few-shot Time Series Anomaly Analyzers
- 2024Large Language Models can Deliver Accurate and Interpretable Time Series Anomaly Detection
- 2026AnomaMind: Agentic Time Series Anomaly Detection with Tool-Augmented Reasoning