mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

This Time is Different: An Observability Perspective on Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv 2505.14766 ↗First posted 20 May 2025cs.LG cs.AIcited by 68

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Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce Toto, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters. Toto uses a modern decoder-only architecture coupled with architectural innovations designed to account for specific challenges found in multivariate observability time series data. Toto's pre-training corpus is a mixture of observability data, open datasets, and synthetic data, and is 4-10× larger than those of leading time series foundation models. Additionally, we introduce BOOM, a large-scale benchmark consisting of 350 million observations across 2,807 real-world time series. For both Toto and BOOM, we source observability data exclusively from Datadog's own telemetry and internal observability metrics. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that Toto achieves state-of-the-art performance on both BOOM and on established general purpose time series forecasting benchmarks. Toto's model weights, inference code, and evaluation scripts, as well as BOOM's data and evaluation code, are all available as open source under the Apache 2.0 License available at https://huggingface.co/Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0 and https://github.com/DataDog/toto.

Key facts. Cited by 68 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 46 of its 98 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 20 May 2025.

Builds on

46 of 98 references.

References · 46

  1. 2020An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scalecited by 30,186
  2. 2021RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embeddingcited by 4,703
  3. 2019Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Frameworkcited by 2,501
  4. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
  5. 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 2,039
  6. 2020GLU Variants Improve Transformercited by 1,804
  7. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,676
  8. 2021ViViT: A Video Vision Transformercited by 1,620
  9. 2019Root Mean Square Layer Normalizationcited by 1,480
  10. 2022TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysiscited by 1,058
  11. 2017DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networkscited by 1,013
  12. 2023iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecastingcited by 931
34 more
  1. 2020On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecturecited by 922
  2. 2024MiniCPM: Unveiling the Potential of Small Language Models with Scalable Training Strategiescited by 723
  3. 2023Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Modelscited by 700
  4. 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 692
  5. 2023One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LMcited by 632
  6. 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 614
  7. 2024FlashAttention-3: Fast and Accurate Attention with Asynchrony and Low-precisioncited by 519
  8. 2023Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasterscited by 500
  9. 2024MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Modelscited by 482
  10. 2023Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encodercited by 332
  11. 2019On the Relationship between Self-Attention and Convolutional Layerscited by 300
  12. 2024Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Expertscited by 287
  13. 2021Monash Time Series Forecasting Archivecited by 267
  14. 2024TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methodscited by 249
  15. 2024GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluationcited by 212
  16. 2024Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Modelscited by 208
  17. 2022A Length-Extrapolatable Transformercited by 127
  18. 2024Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Expertscited by 95
  19. 2024UniTS: A Unified Multi-Task Time Series Modelcited by 94
  20. 2024VisionTS: Visual Masked Autoencoders Are Free-Lunch Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasterscited by 88
  21. 2017Deep and Confident Prediction for Time Series at Ubercited by 50
  22. 2024SAMformer: Unlocking the Potential of Transformers in Time Series Forecasting with Sharpness-Aware Minimization and Channel-Wise Attentioncited by 44
  23. 2024Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 33
  24. 2021Learning Quantile Functions without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecastingcited by 32
  25. 2024Specialized Foundation Models Struggle to Beat Supervised Baselinescited by 24
  26. 2023Pushing the Limits of Pre-training for Time Series Forecasting in the CloudOps Domaincited by 23
  27. 2023AutoMixer for Improved Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting on Business and IT Observability Datacited by 17
  28. 2024xLSTMTime : Long-term Time Series Forecasting With xLSTMcited by 14
  29. 2023How Does It Function? Characterizing Long-term Trends in Production Serverless Workloadscited by 10
  30. 2025Performance of Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models on Cloud Datacited by 10
  31. 2023Maat: Performance Metric Anomaly Anticipation for Cloud Services with Conditional Diffusioncited by 8
  32. 2025RoCA: Robust Contrastive One-class Time Series Anomaly Detection with Contaminated Datacited by 4
  33. 2018A mixture autoregressive model based on Student's t-distributioncited by 2
  34. 2023Enhancements of Discretization Approaches for Non-Convex Mixed-Integer Quadratically Constraint Quadratic Programming: Part IIcited by 1

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 15; 2026: 53.

68 papers.

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  1. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 194
  2. 2025TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learningcited by 120
  3. 2026It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarkscited by 33
  4. 2026Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Eracited by 30
  5. 2025Rethinking Evaluation in the Era of Time Series Foundation Models: (Un)known Information Leakage Challengescited by 16
  6. 2026Reverso: Efficient Time Series Foundation Models for Zero-shot Forecastingcited by 13
  7. 2026TiRex-2: Generalizing TiRex to Multivariate Data and Streamingcited by 13
  8. 2026Revisiting the Generic Transformer: Deconstructing a Strong Baseline for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 12
  9. 2026SleepLM: Natural-Language Intelligence for Human Sleepcited by 12
  10. 2026OSF: On Pre-training and Scaling of Sleep Foundation Modelscited by 12
  11. 2026MantisV2: Closing the Zero-Shot Gap in Time Series Classification with Synthetic Data and Test-Time Strategiescited by 11
  12. 2026Falcon-X: A Time Series Foundation Model for Heterogeneous Multivariate Modelingcited by 10
38 more
  1. 2025Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 9
  2. 2025Pre-trained Forecasting Models: Strong Zero-Shot Feature Extractors for Time Series Classificationcited by 9
  3. 2025Synapse: Adaptive Arbitration of Complementary Expertise in Time Series Foundational Modelscited by 7
  4. 2026ARFBench: Benchmarking Time Series Question Answering Ability for Software Incident Responsecited by 6
  5. 2026Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecastingcited by 6
  6. 2025TelecomTS: A Multi-Modal Observability Dataset for Time Series and Language Analysiscited by 5
  7. 2026Baguan-TS: A Sequence-Native In-Context Learning Model for Time Series Forecasting with Covariatescited by 4
  8. 2026TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecastingcited by 4
  9. 2026Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 4
  10. 2025TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platformcited by 3
  11. 2026Thermal-GEMs: Generalized Models for Building Thermal Dynamicscited by 3
  12. 2026TimeRFT: Stimulating Generalizable Time Series Forecasting for TSFMs via Reinforcement Finetuningcited by 3
  13. 2026Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Frameworkcited by 3
  14. 2026Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Modelscited by 3
  15. 2025Beyond Accuracy: Are Time Series Foundation Models Well-Calibrated?cited by 2
  16. 2026A Foundation Model for Instruction-Conditioned In-Context Time Series Taskscited by 2
  17. 2026Sonata: A Hybrid World Model for Inertial Kinematics under Clinical Data Scarcitycited by 2
  18. 2026Dr-CiK: A Benchmark testing Deep Research for Context-Aided Forecastingcited by 2
  19. 2026CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecastingcited by 2
  20. 2026Zeus: Towards Tuning-Free Foundation Model for Time Series Analysiscited by 2
  21. 2026Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metricscited by 2
  22. 2026OpenMHC: Accelerating the Science of Wearable Foundation Modelscited by 2
  23. 2026WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecastingcited by 2
  24. 2025Time Series Forecasting Through the Lens of Dynamicscited by 1
  25. 2025A Comparative Study on How Data Normalization Affects Zero-Shot Generalization in Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 1
  26. 2026Chronicle: A Multimodal Foundation Model for Joint Language and Time Series Understandingcited by 1
  27. 2026Crypto x AI, AI x Crypto: A Surveycited by 1
  28. 2026Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependencecited by 1
  29. 2026RMISC: A Large-scale Real-world Multivariate Corpus for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 1
  30. 2026Forecast Collapse in Time-Series Foundation Modelscited by 1
  31. 2025THEMIS: Unlocking Pretrained Knowledge with Foundation Model Embeddings for Anomaly Detection in Time Seriescited by 0
  32. 2025There is No "apple" in Timeseries: Rethinking TSFM through the Lens of Invariancecited by 0
  33. 2025Cisco Time Series Model Technical Reportcited by 0
  34. 2025Mod`eles de Fondation et Ajustement : Vers une Nouvelle G'en'eration de Mod`eles pour la Pr'evision des S'eries Temporellescited by 0
  35. 2026Feature to Dynamics: Feature-space to Autoregression strategy for Zero-shot Time Series Forecastingcited by 0
  36. 2026Time Series as Language: A Universal Tokenizer for General-Purpose Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 0
  37. 2026CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidationcited by 0
  38. 2026Evaluating the Generalizability of Foundation Models for Extreme Environmental Events: Case Study of California Wildfire PM2.5cited by 0

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