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Interweaving Marginals into Multivariate Sample Paths: Training-Free Dependence Construction for Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv 2609.25980 ↗First posted 22 Sep 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Probabilistic time series foundation models (TSFMs) provide coordinate-wise predictive distributions, but these marginals do not determine a joint distribution over multivariate future trajectories. We study training-free coupling of frozen TSFM marginals into multivariate forecast sample paths. Our primary evaluation fixes the empirical marginal sample multiset at every channel--horizon coordinate across methods, isolating the effect of coupling alone. Historical temporal and channel relations substantially improve their corresponding dependence diagnostics. The same pattern persists when the fixed-marginal constraint is removed and paths are sampled directly, and remains present under native multivariate backbone inference. These results support treating dependence reconstruction as a distinct post-processing problem for probabilistic TSFMs.

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References · 7

  1. 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 692
  2. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 194
  3. 2025fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecastingcited by 64
  4. 2013Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Couplingcited by 22
  5. 2019Deep Generative Quantile-Copula Models for Probabilistic Forecastingcited by 18
  6. 2025AdaPTS: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 15
  7. 2025Efficiently Generating Correlated Sample Paths from Multi-step Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 4

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