mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Prediction

arXiv 2202.11884 ↗First posted 24 Feb 2022cs.RO cs.AI cs.CVcited by 81

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Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting future motions of road participants is an important task for driving autonomously in urban scenes. Existing models excel at predicting marginal trajectories for single agents, yet it remains an open question to jointly predict scene compliant trajectories over multiple agents. The challenge is due to exponentially increasing prediction space as a function of the number of agents. In this work, we exploit the underlying relations between interacting agents and decouple the joint prediction problem into marginal prediction problems. Our proposed approach M2I first classifies interacting agents as pairs of influencers and reactors, and then leverages a marginal prediction model and a conditional prediction model to predict trajectories for the influencers and reactors, respectively. The predictions from interacting agents are combined and selected according to their joint likelihoods. Experiments show that our simple but effective approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset interactive prediction benchmark.

Key facts. Cited by 81 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 41 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2022.

Builds on

41 of 45 references.

References · 41

  1. 2014Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognitioncited by 15,267
  2. 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 728
  3. 2018Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networkscited by 687
  4. 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
  5. 2020VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representationcited by 528
  6. 2019MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Predictioncited by 417
  7. 2020Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecastingcited by 380
  8. 2020TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Predictioncited by 345
  9. 2020Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 324
  10. 2017DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agentscited by 310
  11. 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 292
  12. 2018Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networkscited by 289
29 more
  1. 2020It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Predictioncited by 235
  2. 2019INTERACTION Dataset: An INTERnational, Adversarial and Cooperative moTION Dataset in Interactive Driving Scenarios with Semantic Mapscited by 231
  3. 2019Social-BiGAT: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting using Bicycle-GAN and Graph Attention Networkscited by 228
  4. 2019PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settingscited by 178
  5. 2019Multiple Futures Predictioncited by 178
  6. 2021Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectoriescited by 165
  7. 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
  8. 2019Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion for Contextual Trajectory Predictioncited by 131
  9. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  10. 2020Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecastingcited by 116
  11. 2019Spatially-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Relational Behavior Forecasting from Sensor Datacited by 104
  12. 2019Diverse Trajectory Forecasting with Determinantal Point Processescited by 80
  13. 2020TPNet: Trajectory Proposal Network for Motion Predictioncited by 80
  14. 2020What-If Motion Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 80
  15. 2018Multi-Modal Trajectory Prediction of Surrounding Vehicles with Maneuver based LSTMscited by 77
  16. 2021LaPred: Lane-Aware Prediction of Multi-Modal Future Trajectories of Dynamic Agentscited by 64
  17. 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63
  18. 2020Trajectron++: Dynamically-Feasible Trajectory Forecasting With Heterogeneous Datacited by 58
  19. 2020End-to-end Contextual Perception and Prediction with Interaction Transformercited by 54
  20. 2021Identifying Driver Interactions via Conditional Behavior Predictioncited by 48
  21. 2019DiversityGAN: Diversity-Aware Vehicle Motion Prediction via Latent Semantic Samplingcited by 40
  22. 2019Joint Interaction and Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving using Graph Neural Networkscited by 17
  23. 2020Interaction-Based Trajectory Prediction Over a Hybrid Traffic Graphcited by 17
  24. 2020Multi-agent Trajectory Prediction with Fuzzy Query Attentioncited by 16
  25. 2021Trajectory Prediction with Linguistic Representationscited by 13
  26. 2021HYPER: Learned Hybrid Trajectory Prediction via Factored Inference and Adaptive Samplingcited by 12
  27. 2020Fast Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles Using Learned Models of Agent Futurescited by 9
  28. 2021AIR2 for Interaction Predictioncited by 9
  29. 2019SafeCritic: Collision-Aware Trajectory Predictioncited by 3

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 11; 2023: 31; 2024: 18; 2025: 14; 2026: 7.

81 papers.

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  1. 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 267
  2. 2023MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusioncited by 210
  3. 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 154
  4. 2023GameFormer: Game-theoretic Modeling and Learning of Transformer-based Interactive Prediction and Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 141
  5. 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 139
  6. 2023CAT: Closed-loop Adversarial Training for Safe End-to-End Drivingcited by 52
  7. 2023Traj-MAE: Masked Autoencoders for Trajectory Predictioncited by 42
  8. 2022FJMP: Factorized Joint Multi-Agent Motion Prediction over Learned Directed Acyclic Interaction Graphscited by 41
  9. 2022JFP: Joint Future Prediction with Interactive Multi-Agent Modeling for Autonomous Drivingcited by 40
  10. 2022Conditional Predictive Behavior Planning with Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Human-like Autonomous Drivingcited by 34
  11. 2023Real-Time Motion Prediction via Heterogeneous Polyline Transformer with Relative Pose Encodingcited by 32
  12. 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Reviewcited by 29
38 more
  1. 2023Data-driven Traffic Simulation: A Comprehensive Reviewcited by 29
  2. 2024DriveGPT: Scaling Autoregressive Behavior Models for Drivingcited by 29
  3. 2022GATraj: A Graph- and Attention-based Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Modelcited by 25
  4. 2024CMP: Cooperative Motion Prediction with Multi-Agent Communicationcited by 25
  5. 2025Critique of World Modelcited by 24
  6. 2023Large Trajectory Models are Scalable Motion Predictors and Plannerscited by 23
  7. 2023Open-sourced Data Ecosystem in Autonomous Driving: the Present and Futurecited by 22
  8. 2024Optimizing Diffusion Models for Joint Trajectory Prediction and Controllable Generationcited by 18
  9. 2023Unsupervised Sampling Promoting for Stochastic Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 17
  10. 2023Joint Metrics Matter: A Better Standard for Trajectory Forecastingcited by 17
  11. 2023A Diffusion-Model of Joint Interactive Navigationcited by 16
  12. 2023IPCC-TP: Utilizing Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient for Joint Multi-Agent Trajectory Predictioncited by 13
  13. 2024AMP: Autoregressive Motion Prediction Revisited with Next Token Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 13
  14. 2023Context-Aware Timewise VAEs for Real-Time Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 12
  15. 2025Dream to Drive with Predictive Individual World Modelcited by 11
  16. 2025CurricuVLM: Towards Safe Autonomous Driving via Personalized Safety-Critical Curriculum Learning with Vision-Language Modelscited by 11
  17. 2023Editing Driver Character: Socially-Controllable Behavior Generation for Interactive Traffic Simulationcited by 10
  18. 2022Domain Knowledge Driven Pseudo Labels for Interpretable Goal-Conditioned Interactive Trajectory Predictioncited by 9
  19. 2023Vision-based Multi-future Trajectory Prediction: A Surveycited by 8
  20. 2023Occupancy Prediction-Guided Neural Planner for Autonomous Drivingcited by 8
  21. 2023BiFF: Bi-level Future Fusion with Polyline-based Coordinate for Interactive Trajectory Predictioncited by 8
  22. 2023Uncertainty-Aware Decision Transformer for Stochastic Driving Environmentscited by 8
  23. 2024MoST: Multi-modality Scene Tokenization for Motion Predictioncited by 8
  24. 2025Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Vehicles: A Surveycited by 8
  25. 2024JointMotion: Joint Self-Supervision for Joint Motion Predictioncited by 7
  26. 2024ModeSeq: Taming Sparse Multimodal Motion Prediction with Sequential Mode Modelingcited by 7
  27. 2025TrajFlow: Multi-modal Motion Prediction via Flow Matchingcited by 7
  28. 2022VectorFlow: Combining Images and Vectors for Traffic Occupancy and Flow Predictioncited by 6
  29. 2024Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Difficulty-Guided Feature Enhancement Networkcited by 6
  30. 2023Bringing Diversity to Autonomous Vehicles: An Interpretable Multi-vehicle Decision-making and Planning Frameworkcited by 5
  31. 2023Self-Aware Trajectory Prediction for Safe Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
  32. 2024Blending Data-Driven Priors in Dynamic Gamescited by 5
  33. 2023XVTP3D: Cross-view Trajectory Prediction Using Shared 3D Queries for Autonomous Drivingcited by 4
  34. 2023InteractionNet: Joint Planning and Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Transformerscited by 4
  35. 2024MS-Net: A Multi-Path Sparse Model for Motion Prediction in Multi-Scenescited by 4
  36. 2024SceneMotion: From Agent-Centric Embeddings to Scene-Wide Forecastscited by 4
  37. 2024Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimizationcited by 4
  38. 2025CoPlanner: An Interactive Motion Planner with Contingency-Aware Diffusion for Autonomous Drivingcited by 4

50 most cited of 81 All 81 (JSON)