mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction

arXiv 1910.05449 ↗First posted 12 Oct 2019cs.LG cs.CV cs.ROcited by 420

Not on the map. Why?

Cited by 73 in End-to-end autonomous driving, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving. Beyond single MAP trajectory prediction, obtaining an accurate probability distribution of the future is an area of active interest. We present MultiPath, which leverages a fixed set of future state-sequence anchors that correspond to modes of the trajectory distribution. At inference, our model predicts a discrete distribution over the anchors and, for each anchor, regresses offsets from anchor waypoints along with uncertainties, yielding a Gaussian mixture at each time step. Our model is efficient, requiring only one forward inference pass to obtain multi-modal future distributions, and the output is parametric, allowing compact communication and analytical probabilistic queries. We show on several datasets that our model achieves more accurate predictions, and compared to sampling baselines, does so with an order of magnitude fewer trajectories.

Key facts. Cited by 420 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 12 Oct 2019.

Builds on

No reference list yet.

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 74; 2022: 72; 2023: 87; 2024: 75; 2025: 61; 2026: 51.

420 papers.

Sort:

By area:

  1. 2022Planning-oriented Autonomous Drivingcited by 1,087
  2. 2023VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Drivingcited by 622
  3. 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 537
  4. 2021AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecastingcited by 331
  5. 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 295
  6. 2024VADv2: End-to-End Vectorized Autonomous Driving via Probabilistic Planningcited by 289
  7. 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networkscited by 280
  8. 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 270
  9. 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
  10. 2021FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Camerascited by 239
  11. 2024GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 225
  12. 2023MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusioncited by 213
38 more
  1. 2021MP3: A Unified Model to Map, Perceive, Predict and Plancited by 212
  2. 2021Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformerscited by 208
  3. 2021Stochastic Scene-Aware Motion Predictioncited by 203
  4. 2025ReCogDrive: A Reinforced Cognitive Framework for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 198
  5. 2021TrafficSim: Learning to Simulate Realistic Multi-Agent Behaviorscited by 193
  6. 2022Guided Conditional Diffusion for Controllable Traffic Simulationcited by 190
  7. 2025ORION: A Holistic End-to-End Autonomous Driving Framework by Vision-Language Instructed Action Generationcited by 178
  8. 2021Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectoriescited by 165
  9. 2023Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Researchcited by 160
  10. 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 156
  11. 2024Senna: Bridging Large Vision-Language Models and End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 156
  12. 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
  13. 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 140
  14. 2021Generating Useful Accident-Prone Driving Scenarios via a Learned Traffic Priorcited by 139
  15. 2023Trace and Pace: Controllable Pedestrian Animation via Guided Trajectory Diffusioncited by 138
  16. 2022Learning from All Vehiclescited by 135
  17. 2022Imitation Is Not Enough: Robustifying Imitation with Reinforcement Learning for Challenging Driving Scenarioscited by 129
  18. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  19. 2022ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queriescited by 117
  20. 2021LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecastingcited by 113
  21. 2021Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversalscited by 113
  22. 2023Language-Guided Traffic Simulation via Scene-Level Diffusioncited by 111
  23. 2022HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encodingcited by 110
  24. 2022PlanT: Explainable Planning Transformers via Object-Level Representationscited by 105
  25. 2021Shifts: A Dataset of Real Distributional Shift Across Multiple Large-Scale Taskscited by 101
  26. 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
  27. 2023EqMotion: Equivariant Multi-agent Motion Prediction with Invariant Interaction Reasoningcited by 97
  28. 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Drivingcited by 96
  29. 2021TPCN: Temporal Point Cloud Networks for Motion Forecastingcited by 94
  30. 2024OpenEMMA: Open-Source Multimodal Model for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 93
  31. 2022Differentiable Raycasting for Self-supervised Occupancy Forecastingcited by 84
  32. 2022M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Predictioncited by 81
  33. 2021SimNet: Learning Reactive Self-driving Simulations from Real-world Observationscited by 77
  34. 2023Forecast-MAE: Self-supervised Pre-training for Motion Forecasting with Masked Autoencoderscited by 73
  35. 2021SafetyNet: Safe planning for real-world self-driving vehicles using machine-learned policiescited by 69
  36. 2022GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecastingcited by 68
  37. 2021LaPred: Lane-Aware Prediction of Multi-Modal Future Trajectories of Dynamic Agentscited by 64
  38. 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63

50 most cited of 420 All 420 (JSON)