Context-Aware Timewise VAEs for Real-Time Vehicle Trajectory Prediction
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Abstract (arXiv)
Real-time, accurate prediction of human steering behaviors has wide applications, from developing intelligent traffic systems to deploying autonomous driving systems in both real and simulated worlds. In this paper, we present ContextVAE, a context-aware approach for multi-modal vehicle trajectory prediction. Built upon the backbone architecture of a timewise variational autoencoder, ContextVAE observation encoding employs a dual attention mechanism that accounts for the environmental context and the dynamic agents' states, in a unified way. By utilizing features extracted from semantic maps during agent state encoding, our approach takes into account both the social features exhibited by agents on the scene and the physical environment constraints to generate map-compliant and socially-aware trajectories. We perform extensive testing on the nuScenes prediction challenge, Lyft Level 5 dataset and Waymo Open Motion Dataset to show the effectiveness of our approach and its state-of-the-art performance. In all tested datasets, ContextVAE models are fast to train and provide high-quality multi-modal predictions in real-time. Our code is available at: https://github.com/xupei0610/ContextVAE.
Key facts. Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 38 of its 47 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 21 Feb 2023.
Builds on
38 of 47 references.
References · 38
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- 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,485
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- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
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- 2018Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networkscited by 289
- 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 267
26 more
- 2019CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Setscited by 259
- 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
- 2020One Thousand and One Hours: Self-driving Motion Prediction Datasetcited by 239
- 2019Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Surveycited by 231
- 2018Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 221
- 2019PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settingscited by 178
- 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
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- 2021LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecastingcited by 112
- 2021Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversalscited by 112
- 2022M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Predictioncited by 81
- 2020What-If Motion Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 80
- 2019Social Ways: Learning Multi-Modal Distributions of Pedestrian Trajectories with GANscited by 78
- 2020Trajectory Forecasts in Unknown Environments Conditioned on Grid-Based Planscited by 72
- 2022SocialVAE: Human Trajectory Prediction using Timewise Latentscited by 65
- 2021LaPred: Lane-Aware Prediction of Multi-Modal Future Trajectories of Dynamic Agentscited by 64
- 2021Stepwise Goal-Driven Networks for Trajectory Predictioncited by 62
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- 2020Map-Adaptive Goal-Based Trajectory Predictioncited by 29
- 2021PredictionNet: Real-Time Joint Probabilistic Traffic Prediction for Planning, Control, and Simulationcited by 29
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- 2022Deep Interactive Motion Prediction and Planning: Playing Games with Motion Prediction Modelscited by 27
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2024: 4; 2025: 5; 2026: 3.
12 papers.
- 2024KiGRAS: Kinematic-Driven Generative Model for Realistic Agent Simulationcited by 17
- 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directionscited by 14
- 2024NEST: A Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction Model for Autonomous Drivingcited by 12
- 2025DRoPE: Directional Rotary Position Embedding for Efficient Agent Interaction Modelingcited by 9
- 2025AMD: Adaptive Momentum and Decoupled Contrastive Learning Framework for Robust Long-Tail Trajectory Predictioncited by 4
- 2024Perception Without Vision for Trajectory Prediction: Ego Vehicle Dynamics as Scene Representation for Efficient Active Learning in Autonomous Drivingcited by 2
- 2024Planning-Aware Diffusion Networks for Enhanced Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2025KoopCast: Trajectory Forecasting via Koopman Operatorscited by 0
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory predictioncited by 0
- 2026SAIL: Scene-aware Adaptive Iterative Learning for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehiclescited by 0
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026SWIFT: A Small-World Interaction Framework for Flow-Aware Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2026SWIFT: A Small-World Interaction Framework for Flow-Aware Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving3 Jul 2026
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Prediction12 Jun 2026
- 2026SAIL: Scene-aware Adaptive Iterative Learning for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehicles6 Apr 2026
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory prediction24 Nov 2025
- 2025KoopCast: Trajectory Forecasting via Koopman Operators19 Sep 2025
- 2025AMD: Adaptive Momentum and Decoupled Contrastive Learning Framework for Robust Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction2 Jul 2025
- 2025DRoPE: Directional Rotary Position Embedding for Efficient Agent Interaction Modeling19 Mar 2025
- 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions5 Mar 2025
- 2024NEST: A Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction Model for Autonomous Driving16 Dec 2024
- 2024Planning-Aware Diffusion Networks for Enhanced Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Driving25 Oct 2024
- 2024KiGRAS: Kinematic-Driven Generative Model for Realistic Agent Simulation17 Jul 2024
- 2024Perception Without Vision for Trajectory Prediction: Ego Vehicle Dynamics as Scene Representation for Efficient Active Learning in Autonomous Driving15 May 2024