mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings

arXiv 1905.01296 ↗First posted 3 May 2019cs.CV cs.AI cs.LGcited by 178

Not on the map. Why?

Cited by 28 in End-to-end autonomous driving, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

For autonomous vehicles (AVs) to behave appropriately on roads populated by human-driven vehicles, they must be able to reason about the uncertain intentions and decisions of other drivers from rich perceptual information. Towards these capabilities, we present a probabilistic forecasting model of future interactions between a variable number of agents. We perform both standard forecasting and the novel task of conditional forecasting, which reasons about how all agents will likely respond to the goal of a controlled agent (here, the AV). We train models on real and simulated data to forecast vehicle trajectories given past positions and LIDAR. Our evaluation shows that our model is substantially more accurate in multi-agent driving scenarios compared to existing state-of-the-art. Beyond its general ability to perform conditional forecasting queries, we show that our model's predictions of all agents improve when conditioned on knowledge of the AV's goal, further illustrating its capability to model agent interactions.

Key facts. Cited by 178 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 3 May 2019.

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Citing papers per year: 2020: 2; 2021: 49; 2022: 40; 2023: 41; 2024: 23; 2025: 15; 2026: 8.

178 papers.

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  1. 2022Planning-oriented Autonomous Drivingcited by 1,068
  2. 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
  3. 2022TransFuser: Imitation with Transformer-Based Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Drivingcited by 477
  4. 2021Multi-Modal Fusion Transformer for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 372
  5. 2023GPT-Driver: Learning to Drive with GPTcited by 344
  6. 2021AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecastingcited by 327
  7. 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 292
  8. 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networkscited by 279
  9. 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 267
  10. 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
  11. 2021FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Camerascited by 239
  12. 2023Parting with Misconceptions about Learning-based Vehicle Motion Planningcited by 238
38 more
  1. 2022Safety-Enhanced Autonomous Driving Using Interpretable Sensor Fusion Transformercited by 211
  2. 2021TrafficSim: Learning to Simulate Realistic Multi-Agent Behaviorscited by 192
  3. 2021Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectoriescited by 165
  4. 2023Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Researchcited by 158
  5. 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 154
  6. 2022Model-Based Imitation Learning for Urban Drivingcited by 149
  7. 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 139
  8. 2022Imitation Is Not Enough: Robustifying Imitation with Reinforcement Learning for Challenging Driving Scenarioscited by 124
  9. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  10. 2021LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecastingcited by 112
  11. 2021Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversalscited by 112
  12. 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
  13. 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Drivingcited by 96
  14. 2023The Waymo Open Sim Agents Challengecited by 86
  15. 2022M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Predictioncited by 81
  16. 2022BITS: Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulationcited by 80
  17. 2021SimNet: Learning Reactive Self-driving Simulations from Real-world Observationscited by 77
  18. 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63
  19. 2022ScePT: Scene-consistent, Policy-based Trajectory Predictions for Planningcited by 63
  20. 2021Stepwise Goal-Driven Networks for Trajectory Predictioncited by 62
  21. 2021Trajectory Prediction with Latent Belief Energy-Based Modelcited by 60
  22. 2025A Survey of World Models for Autonomous Drivingcited by 60
  23. 2022MUSE-VAE: Multi-Scale VAE for Environment-Aware Long Term Trajectory Predictioncited by 59
  24. 2021LOKI: Long Term and Key Intentions for Trajectory Predictioncited by 57
  25. 2023TrafficBots: Towards World Models for Autonomous Driving Simulation and Motion Predictioncited by 56
  26. 2023LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraintscited by 50
  27. 2021On Exposing the Challenging Long Tail in Future Prediction of Traffic Actorscited by 48
  28. 2022AdvDO: Realistic Adversarial Attacks for Trajectory Predictioncited by 48
  29. 2021View Vertically: A Hierarchical Network for Trajectory Prediction via Fourier Spectrumscited by 44
  30. 2020Modeling Human Driving Behavior through Generative Adversarial Imitation Learningcited by 43
  31. 2022Hierarchical Model-Based Imitation Learning for Planning in Autonomous Drivingcited by 43
  32. 2022Social-Implicit: Rethinking Trajectory Prediction Evaluation and The Effectiveness of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimationcited by 40
  33. 2022JFP: Joint Future Prediction with Interactive Multi-Agent Modeling for Autonomous Drivingcited by 40
  34. 2023ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptationcited by 39
  35. 2024Can Vehicle Motion Planning Generalize to Realistic Long-tail Scenarios?cited by 38
  36. 2021Spatio-Temporal Graph Dual-Attention Network for Multi-Agent Prediction and Trackingcited by 35
  37. 2022On Transforming Reinforcement Learning by Transformer: The Development Trajectorycited by 35
  38. 2021Imagining The Road Ahead: Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Differentiable Simulationcited by 32

50 most cited of 178 All 178 (JSON)