mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets

arXiv 2108.09640 ↗First posted 22 Aug 2021cs.CV cs.ROcited by 292

Not on the map. Why?

Cited by 55 in End-to-end autonomous driving, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Due to the stochasticity of human behaviors, predicting the future trajectories of road agents is challenging for autonomous driving. Recently, goal-based multi-trajectory prediction methods are proved to be effective, where they first score over-sampled goal candidates and then select a final set from them. However, these methods usually involve goal predictions based on sparse pre-defined anchors and heuristic goal selection algorithms. In this work, we propose an anchor-free and end-to-end trajectory prediction model, named DenseTNT, that directly outputs a set of trajectories from dense goal candidates. In addition, we introduce an offline optimization-based technique to provide multi-future pseudo-labels for our final online model. Experiments show that DenseTNT achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking 1st on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark and being the 1st place winner of the 2021 Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.

Key facts. Cited by 292 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 33 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Aug 2021.

Builds on

33 of 41 references.

References · 33

  1. 2020End-to-End Object Detection with Transformerscited by 7,384
  2. 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 728
  3. 2018Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networkscited by 687
  4. 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
  5. 2020VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representationcited by 528
  6. 2019MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Predictioncited by 417
  7. 2020Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecastingcited by 380
  8. 2020TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Predictioncited by 345
  9. 2017DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agentscited by 310
  10. 2018Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networkscited by 289
  11. 2019CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Setscited by 259
  12. 2019PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settingscited by 178
21 more
  1. 2019Multiple Futures Predictioncited by 178
  2. 2021IntentNet: Learning to Predict Intention from Raw Sensor Datacited by 158
  3. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  4. 2019Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactionscited by 117
  5. 2020Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecastingcited by 116
  6. 2021LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecastingcited by 112
  7. 2021TPCN: Temporal Point Cloud Networks for Motion Forecastingcited by 94
  8. 2019Diverse Trajectory Forecasting with Determinantal Point Processescited by 80
  9. 2020TPNet: Trajectory Proposal Network for Motion Predictioncited by 80
  10. 2020What-If Motion Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 80
  11. 2019The Garden of Forking Paths: Towards Multi-Future Trajectory Predictioncited by 72
  12. 2020MANTRA: Memory Augmented Networks for Multiple Trajectory Predictioncited by 69
  13. 2020Recursive Social Behavior Graph for Trajectory Predictioncited by 66
  14. 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63
  15. 2018Egocentric Vision-based Future Vehicle Localization for Intelligent Driving Assistance Systemscited by 42
  16. 2019Discrete Residual Flow for Probabilistic Pedestrian Behavior Predictioncited by 34
  17. 2019Stochastic Prediction of Multi-Agent Interactions from Partial Observationscited by 26
  18. 2020Goal-driven Long-Term Trajectory Predictioncited by 24
  19. 2020STINet: Spatio-Temporal-Interactive Network for Pedestrian Detection and Trajectory Predictioncited by 22
  20. 2018MX-LSTM: mixing tracklets and vislets to jointly forecast trajectories and head posescited by 17
  21. 2019DROGON: A Trajectory Prediction Model based on Intention-Conditioned Behavior Reasoningcited by 10

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 6; 2022: 55; 2023: 80; 2024: 61; 2025: 60; 2026: 30.

292 papers.

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  1. 2024DriveVLM: The Convergence of Autonomous Driving and Large Vision-Language Modelscited by 482
  2. 2022ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learningcited by 365
  3. 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networkscited by 279
  4. 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 267
  5. 2022BEVerse: Unified Perception and Prediction in Birds-Eye-View for Vision-Centric Autonomous Drivingcited by 191
  6. 2023Rethinking the Open-Loop Evaluation of End-to-End Autonomous Driving in nuScenescited by 191
  7. 2023Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Researchcited by 158
  8. 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
  9. 2023GameFormer: Game-theoretic Modeling and Learning of Transformer-based Interactive Prediction and Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 141
  10. 2022PersFormer: 3D Lane Detection via Perspective Transformer and the OpenLane Benchmarkcited by 140
  11. 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 139
  12. 2025GoalFlow: Goal-Driven Flow Matching for Multimodal Trajectories Generation in End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 117
38 more
  1. 2022ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queriescited by 116
  2. 2022HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encodingcited by 109
  3. 2024Towards learning-based planning:The nuPlan benchmark for real-world autonomous drivingcited by 103
  4. 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
  5. 2023Recent Advancements in End-to-End Autonomous Driving using Deep Learning: A Surveycited by 101
  6. 2023ReasonNet: End-to-End Driving with Temporal and Global Reasoningcited by 92
  7. 2022M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Predictioncited by 81
  8. 2022BITS: Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulationcited by 80
  9. 2023Forecast-MAE: Self-supervised Pre-training for Motion Forecasting with Masked Autoencoderscited by 72
  10. 2022Differentiable Integrated Motion Prediction and Planning with Learnable Cost Function for Autonomous Drivingcited by 71
  11. 2022GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecastingcited by 68
  12. 2023FusionAD: Multi-modality Fusion for Prediction and Planning Tasks of Autonomous Drivingcited by 67
  13. 2022Physical Adversarial Attack meets Computer Vision: A Decade Surveycited by 66
  14. 2022Motion Inspired Unsupervised Perception and Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 59
  15. 2023TrafficBots: Towards World Models for Autonomous Driving Simulation and Motion Predictioncited by 56
  16. 2023CAT: Closed-loop Adversarial Training for Safe End-to-End Drivingcited by 52
  17. 2023LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraintscited by 50
  18. 2022GANet: Goal Area Network for Motion Forecastingcited by 49
  19. 2024BehaviorGPT: Smart Agent Simulation for Autonomous Driving with Next-Patch Predictioncited by 49
  20. 2022StretchBEV: Stretching Future Instance Prediction Spatially and Temporallycited by 47
  21. 2023ProphNet: Efficient Agent-Centric Motion Forecasting with Anchor-Informed Proposalscited by 47
  22. 2023Leveraging Future Relationship Reasoning for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 47
  23. 2023Traj-MAE: Masked Autoencoders for Trajectory Predictioncited by 42
  24. 2022FJMP: Factorized Joint Multi-Agent Motion Prediction over Learned Directed Acyclic Interaction Graphscited by 41
  25. 2022JFP: Joint Future Prediction with Interactive Multi-Agent Modeling for Autonomous Drivingcited by 40
  26. 2024UnO: Unsupervised Occupancy Fields for Perception and Forecastingcited by 40
  27. 2024Solving Motion Planning Tasks with a Scalable Generative Modelcited by 40
  28. 2023ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptationcited by 39
  29. 2024HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attentioncited by 37
  30. 2022Conditional Predictive Behavior Planning with Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Human-like Autonomous Drivingcited by 34
  31. 2024SmartRefine: A Scenario-Adaptive Refinement Framework for Efficient Motion Predictioncited by 33
  32. 2023MacFormer: Map-Agent Coupled Transformer for Real-time and Robust Trajectory Predictioncited by 32
  33. 2023Real-Time Motion Prediction via Heterogeneous Polyline Transformer with Relative Pose Encodingcited by 32
  34. 2024Producing and Leveraging Online Map Uncertainty in Trajectory Predictioncited by 32
  35. 2022SSL-Lanes: Self-Supervised Learning for Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 31
  36. 2024V2XPnP: Vehicle-to-Everything Spatio-Temporal Fusion for Multi-Agent Perception and Predictioncited by 31
  37. 2022Behavioral Intention Prediction in Driving Scenes: A Surveycited by 30
  38. 2023Implicit Occupancy Flow Fields for Perception and Prediction in Self-Drivingcited by 30

50 most cited of 292 All 292 (JSON)