mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planning

arXiv 2103.04027 ↗First posted 6 Mar 2021cs.CV cs.ROcited by 63

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Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting the future trajectories of on-road vehicles is critical for autonomous driving. In this paper, we introduce a novel prediction framework called PRIME, which stands for Prediction with Model-based Planning. Unlike recent prediction works that utilize neural networks to model scene context and produce unconstrained trajectories, PRIME is designed to generate accurate and feasibility-guaranteed future trajectory predictions. PRIME guarantees the trajectory feasibility by exploiting a model-based generator to produce future trajectories under explicit constraints and enables accurate multimodal prediction by utilizing a learning-based evaluator to select future trajectories. We conduct experiments on the large-scale Argoverse Motion Forecasting Benchmark, where PRIME outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy, feasibility, and robustness under imperfect tracking.

Key facts. Cited by 63 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 25 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Mar 2021.

Builds on

25 of 46 references.

References · 25

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,485
  3. 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 728
  4. 2018Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networkscited by 687
  5. 2020VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representationcited by 528
  6. 2019MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Predictioncited by 417
  7. 2018ChauffeurNet: Learning to Drive by Imitating the Best and Synthesizing the Worstcited by 391
  8. 2020Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecastingcited by 380
  9. 2020TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Predictioncited by 345
  10. 2017DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agentscited by 310
  11. 2018SoPhie: An Attentive GAN for Predicting Paths Compliant to Social and Physical Constraintscited by 296
  12. 2018Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networkscited by 289
13 more
  1. 2019CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Setscited by 259
  2. 2020It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Predictioncited by 235
  3. 2018Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 221
  4. 2019PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settingscited by 178
  5. 2019Multiple Futures Predictioncited by 178
  6. 2021IntentNet: Learning to Predict Intention from Raw Sensor Datacited by 158
  7. 2019Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion for Contextual Trajectory Predictioncited by 131
  8. 2019Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactionscited by 117
  9. 2020Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecastingcited by 116
  10. 2018Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Drivingcited by 90
  11. 2019Multi-Head Attention for Multi-Modal Joint Vehicle Motion Forecastingcited by 87
  12. 2020PiP: Planning-informed Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 80
  13. 2017Pedestrian Prediction by Planning using Deep Neural Networkscited by 11

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 7; 2022: 18; 2023: 20; 2024: 7; 2025: 8; 2026: 3.

63 papers.

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  1. 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 292
  2. 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
  3. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  4. 2022ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queriescited by 116
  5. 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
  6. 2023Recent Advancements in End-to-End Autonomous Driving using Deep Learning: A Surveycited by 101
  7. 2022M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Predictioncited by 81
  8. 2023Forecast-MAE: Self-supervised Pre-training for Motion Forecasting with Masked Autoencoderscited by 72
  9. 2023ProphNet: Efficient Agent-Centric Motion Forecasting with Anchor-Informed Proposalscited by 47
  10. 2022FJMP: Factorized Joint Multi-Agent Motion Prediction over Learned Directed Acyclic Interaction Graphscited by 41
  11. 2021Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywherecited by 39
  12. 2023ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptationcited by 39
38 more
  1. 2023PPAD: Iterative Interactions of Prediction and Planning for End-to-end Autonomous Drivingcited by 33
  2. 2023MacFormer: Map-Agent Coupled Transformer for Real-time and Robust Trajectory Predictioncited by 32
  3. 2022SSL-Lanes: Self-Supervised Learning for Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 31
  4. 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Reviewcited by 29
  5. 2024DriveGPT: Scaling Autoregressive Behavior Models for Drivingcited by 29
  6. 2023Dynamic Scenario Representation Learning for Motion Forecasting with Heterogeneous Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networkscited by 27
  7. 2022TrajGen: Generating Realistic and Diverse Trajectories with Reactive and Feasible Agent Behaviors for Autonomous Drivingcited by 23
  8. 2022Bootstrap Motion Forecasting With Self-Consistent Constraintscited by 23
  9. 2022R-Pred: Two-Stage Motion Prediction Via Tube-Query Attention-Based Trajectory Refinementcited by 23
  10. 2023Machine Learning for Autonomous Vehicle's Trajectory Prediction: A comprehensive survey, Challenges, and Future Research Directionscited by 23
  11. 2021Trajectory Prediction with Graph-based Dual-scale Context Fusioncited by 19
  12. 2025Advancing Multi-agent Traffic Simulation via R1-Style Reinforcement Fine-Tuningcited by 14
  13. 2022MPA: MultiPath++ Based Architecture for Motion Predictioncited by 13
  14. 2022Collaborative Uncertainty Benefits Multi-Agent Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecastingcited by 13
  15. 2021HYPER: Learned Hybrid Trajectory Prediction via Factored Inference and Adaptive Samplingcited by 12
  16. 2022Diverse Multiple Trajectory Prediction Using a Two-stage Prediction Network Trained with Lane Losscited by 12
  17. 2024MFTraj: Map-Free, Behavior-Driven Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 12
  18. 2022KEMP: Keyframe-Based Hierarchical End-to-End Deep Model for Long-Term Trajectory Predictioncited by 11
  19. 2024Intention-aware Denoising Diffusion Model for Trajectory Predictioncited by 11
  20. 2023Graph-Based Interaction-Aware Multimodal 2D Vehicle Trajectory Prediction using Diffusion Graph Convolutional Networkscited by 10
  21. 2022Interventional Behavior Prediction: Avoiding Overly Confident Anticipation in Interactive Predictioncited by 8
  22. 2022Exploiting map information for self-supervised learning in motion forecastingcited by 8
  23. 2023BiFF: Bi-level Future Fusion with Polyline-based Coordinate for Interactive Trajectory Predictioncited by 8
  24. 2025GoIRL: Graph-Oriented Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Multimodal Trajectory Predictioncited by 7
  25. 2023PBP: Path-based Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 6
  26. 2024Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Difficulty-Guided Feature Enhancement Networkcited by 6
  27. 2025Foresight in Motion: Reinforcing Trajectory Prediction with Reward Heuristicscited by 6
  28. 2023Adversarial Backdoor Attack by Naturalistic Data Poisoning on Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
  29. 2023KI-PMF: Knowledge Integrated Plausible Motion Forecastingcited by 5
  30. 2022Analyzing and Enhancing Closed-loop Stability in Reactive Simulationcited by 4
  31. 2023Interpretable Motion Planner for Urban Driving via Hierarchical Imitation Learningcited by 4
  32. 2023RESET: Revisiting Trajectory Sets for Conditional Behavior Predictioncited by 4
  33. 2022GIN: Graph-based Interaction-aware Constraint Policy Optimization for Autonomous Drivingcited by 3
  34. 2022Trajectory Forecasting on Temporal Graphscited by 3
  35. 2022Conditional Goal-oriented Trajectory Prediction for Interacting Vehicles with Vectorized Representationcited by 3
  36. 2023Multi-Predictor Fusion: Combining Learning-based and Rule-based Trajectory Predictorscited by 3
  37. 2023FFINet: Future Feedback Interaction Network for Motion Forecastingcited by 3
  38. 2025Hybrid Machine Learning Model with a Constrained Action Space for Trajectory Predictioncited by 3

50 most cited of 63 All 63 (JSON)