Self-supervised Multi-future Occupancy Forecasting for Autonomous Driving
On the map: World models → World models for autonomous driving
Abstract (arXiv)
Environment prediction frameworks are critical for the safe navigation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in dynamic settings. LiDAR-generated occupancy grid maps (L-OGMs) offer a robust bird's-eye view for the scene representation, enabling self-supervised joint scene predictions while exhibiting resilience to partial observability and perception detection failures. Prior approaches have focused on deterministic L-OGM prediction architectures within the grid cell space. While these methods have seen some success, they frequently produce unrealistic predictions and fail to capture the stochastic nature of the environment. Additionally, they do not effectively integrate additional sensor modalities present in AVs. Our proposed framework, Latent Occupancy Prediction (LOPR), performs stochastic L-OGM prediction in the latent space of a generative architecture and allows for conditioning on RGB cameras, maps, and planned trajectories. We decode predictions using either a single-step decoder, which provides high-quality predictions in real-time, or a diffusion-based batch decoder, which can further refine the decoded frames to address temporal consistency issues and reduce compression losses. Our experiments on the nuScenes and Waymo Open datasets show that all variants of our approach qualitatively and quantitatively outperform prior approaches.
Key facts. Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in World models for autonomous driving, one of 11 directions in World models. Builds on 43 of its 53 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 30 Jul 2024.
Builds on
43 of 53 references.
Closest ancestors · 4
Same direction, newest first
- 2023OccWorld: Learning a 3D Occupancy World Model for Autonomous Driving27 Nov
- 2023GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving29 Sep
- 2023Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving27 Apr
- 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks12 Jul
Other references · 39
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- 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,523
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- 2019Scalability in Perception for Autonomous Driving: Waymo Open Datasetcited by 2,451
- 2022Video Diffusion Modelscited by 2,305
- 2023Consistency Modelscited by 1,822
- 2019Dream to Control: Learning Behaviors by Latent Imaginationcited by 1,653
27 more
- 2018Recurrent World Models Facilitate Policy Evolutioncited by 785
- 2021VideoGPT: Video Generation using VQ-VAE and Transformerscited by 658
- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 537
- 2019MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Predictioncited by 420
- 2015Autoencoding beyond pixels using a learned similarity metriccited by 407
- 2017Stochastic Variational Video Predictioncited by 234
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- 2020Latent Video Transformercited by 106
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- 2022Occupancy Flow Fields for Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 62
- 2020Shared Cross-Modal Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 31
- 2018Long-Term Occupancy Grid Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 29
- 2018Multi-Step Prediction of Occupancy Grid Maps with Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 24
- 2023Survey on LiDAR Perception in Adverse Weather Conditionscited by 24
- 2019Dynamic Environment Prediction in Urban Scenes using Recurrent Representation Learningcited by 18
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- 2022Dynamics-Aware Spatiotemporal Occupancy Prediction in Urban Environmentscited by 17
- 2023Scene Informer: Anchor-based Occlusion Inference and Trajectory Prediction in Partially Observable Environmentscited by 14
- 2020Dynamic Occupancy Grid Mapping with Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 13
- 2020Double-Prong ConvLSTM for Spatiotemporal Occupancy Prediction in Dynamic Environmentscited by 13
- 2020Attention Augmented ConvLSTM for Environment Predictioncited by 12
- 2021Multi-Agent Variational Occlusion Inference Using People as Sensorscited by 10
- 2023Predicting Future Spatiotemporal Occupancy Grids with Semantics for Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 4; 2026: 2.
7 papers.
- 20253D and 4D World Modeling: A Surveycited by 67
- 2025UniOcc: A Unified Benchmark for Occupancy Forecasting and Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 28
- 2024An Efficient Occupancy World Model via Decoupled Dynamic Flow and Image-assisted Trainingcited by 18
- 2025TrajEvo: Trajectory Prediction Heuristics Design via LLM-driven Evolutioncited by 5
- 2026Drive My Way: Preference Alignment of Vision-Language-Action Model for Personalized Drivingcited by 5
- 2026FreeOcc: Training-Free Embodied Open-Vocabulary Occupancy Predictioncited by 2
- 2025Dynamic Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles from Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Occupancy Heatmapscited by 1
- 2026FreeOcc: Training-Free Embodied Open-Vocabulary Occupancy Prediction30 Apr 2026
- 2026Drive My Way: Preference Alignment of Vision-Language-Action Model for Personalized Driving26 Mar 2026
- 20253D and 4D World Modeling: A Survey4 Sep 2025
- 2025TrajEvo: Trajectory Prediction Heuristics Design via LLM-driven Evolution7 Aug 2025
- 2025UniOcc: A Unified Benchmark for Occupancy Forecasting and Prediction in Autonomous Driving31 Mar 2025
- 2025Dynamic Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles from Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Occupancy Heatmaps27 Jan 2025
- 2024An Efficient Occupancy World Model via Decoupled Dynamic Flow and Image-assisted Training18 Dec 2024
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2024UnO: Unsupervised Occupancy Fields for Perception and Forecasting
- 2024Spatiotemporal Decoupling for Efficient Vision-Based Occupancy Forecasting
- 2026GaussianOcc3D: A Gaussian-Based Adaptive Multi-modal 3D Occupancy Prediction
- 2023LiDAR-based 4D Occupancy Completion and Forecasting
- 2025Diffusion-Based Generative Models for 3D Occupancy Prediction in Autonomous Driving
- 2024Driving in the Occupancy World: Vision-Centric 4D Occupancy Forecasting and Planning via World Models for Autonomous Driving
- 2024OccGen: Generative Multi-modal 3D Occupancy Prediction for Autonomous Driving
- 2026ForecastOcc: Vision-based Semantic Occupancy Forecasting