Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty
On the map: LLM reasoning → Reinforcement learning for reasoning
Abstract (arXiv)
When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models. Code, models, and further info is available at https://rl-calibration.github.io/.
Key facts. Cited by 117 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 39 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Jul 2025.
Builds on
39 of 56 references.
Closest ancestors · 5
Same direction, newest first
- 2025BNPO: Beta Normalization Policy Optimization3 Jun
- 2025Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future23 May
- 2025Open-Reasoner-Zero: An Open Source Approach to Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning on the Base Model31 Mar
- 2025Cognitive Behaviors that Enable Self-Improving Reasoners, or, Four Habits of Highly Effective STaRs3 Mar
- 2025Big-Math: A Large-Scale, High-Quality Math Dataset for Reinforcement Learning in Language Models24 Feb
Other references · 34
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
- 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 9,379
- 2021Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Datasetcited by 5,371
- 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,754
- 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,955
- 2023GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmarkcited by 2,879
- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
- 2018CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledgecited by 1,822
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
- 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
22 more
- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
- 2025Reasoning Models Don't Always Say What They Thinkcited by 415
- 2024Measuring short-form factuality in large language modelscited by 373
- 20242 OLMo 2 Furiouscited by 340
- 2024LLMs Know More Than They Show: On the Intrinsic Representation of LLM Hallucinationscited by 244
- 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 210
- 2025Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certaintycited by 187
- 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 162
- 2025AbstentionBench: Reasoning LLMs Fail on Unanswerable Questionscited by 145
- 2024Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyondcited by 121
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMscited by 113
- 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 112
- 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationalescited by 105
- 2019On the Weaknesses of Reinforcement Learning for Neural Machine Translationcited by 82
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 65
- 2025Are Reasoning Models More Prone to Hallucination?cited by 64
- 2025Reinforcement Learning Finetunes Small Subnetworks in Large Language Modelscited by 49
- 2025The Hallucination Tax of Reinforcement Finetuningcited by 40
- 2025Reasoning about Uncertainty: Do Reasoning Models Know When They Don't Know?cited by 38
- 2024Improving Uncertainty Estimation through Semantically Diverse Language Generationcited by 35
- 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Modelscited by 32
- 2025Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluationcited by 18
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 24; 2026: 93.
117 papers.
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- 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Modelscited by 19
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- 2026Understanding Reasoning in LLMs through Strategic Information Allocation under Uncertaintycited by 9
- 2025C2GSPG: Confidence-calibrated Group Sequence Policy Gradient towards Self-aware Reasoningcited by 8
- 2026VL-Calibration: Decoupled Confidence Calibration for Large Vision-Language Models Reasoningcited by 8
- 2026Knowledge Graphs are Implicit Reward Models: Path-Derived Signals Enable Compositional Reasoningcited by 7
- 2025Zero-Overhead Introspection for Adaptive Test-Time Computecited by 6
- 2026Reaching Beyond the Mode: RL for Distributional Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 6
- 2026Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization for Reasoning LLMscited by 5
- 2026Scaling Large Reasoning Models beyond Human Supervision: A Path toward Superintelligencecited by 5
- 2026FaithRL: Learning to Reason Faithfully through Step-Level Faithfulness Maximizationcited by 4
12 most cited of 40 All 40 (JSON)
- 2026Hallucination Across the Reasoning Lifecycle: Interface Visibility, Causal Evidence, and Release Control in Large Reasoning Models4 Oct 2026
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- 2026OpenJev-RLCD: A Working RLCD Implementation30 Sep 2026
- 2026Beyond Verbalized Confidence: Calibrating Reasoners with Differentiable Readouts28 Sep 2026
- 2026When Words Fall Short: Iterative Synergy Between Verbalized Reasoning and Hidden Features for LLM Confidence Estimation28 Sep 2026
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models27 Sep 2026
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models26 Sep 2026
- 2026Learning to Stop without Learning to Stop: Self-Supervised Confidence Training Improves Reasoning Efficiency25 Sep 2026
- 2026Scaling Large Reasoning Models beyond Human Supervision: A Path toward Superintelligence31 Aug 2026
- 2026What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness9 Jul 2026
- 2026Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling2 Jul 2026
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- 2026CAS: Conformalized Agentic Search via Adaptive Retrieval and Policy Weighting21 Aug 2026
- 2026From Sequence to Structure: Relational Uncertainty Propagation for LLM Agents17 Aug 2026
- 2026Closing the Reflection Gap: A Free Calibration Bonus for Agentic RL12 Jun 2026
- 2026GPU Forecasters: Language Models as Selective Surrogates for Kernel Runtime Optimization29 May 2026
- 2026GUITestScape: Towards Open-set Evaluation on Exploratory GUI Testing28 May 2026
- 2026TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters5 Apr 2026
- 2026Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidence6 Feb 2026
- 2026The Confidence Dichotomy: Analyzing and Mitigating Miscalibration in Tool-Use Agents12 Jan 2026
- 2025Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning for Interactive Multimodal Tool-Use Agents17 Sep 2025
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- 2025Why Language Models Hallucinatecited by 220
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- 2025BrokenMath: A Benchmark for Sycophancy in Theorem Proving with LLMscited by 27
- 2025Mitigating LLM Hallucination via Behaviorally Calibrated Reinforcement Learningcited by 18
- 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?cited by 8
- 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capabilitycited by 7
- 2026FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agentscited by 7
- 2025Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patternscited by 5
- 2025Honesty over Accuracy: Trustworthy Language Models through Reinforced Hesitationcited by 5
- 2025Self-Filtered Distillation with LLMs-generated Trust Indicators for Reliable Patent Classificationcited by 4
- 2025CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?cited by 4
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- 2026A Sense of Proprioception in Language Models12 Oct 2026
- 2026Strong yet Controllable LLM Abstention without Learning to Abstain12 Oct 2026
- 2026Can a System-One LLM Perform Knowledge Tracing When Few or No Learners Are Logged?8 Oct 2026
- 2026Not Until the Evidence Says So: Teaching LLM Investigators When to Close a Case2 Oct 2026
- 2026HARPO: Hallucination-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Faithful and Creative Language Generation2 Oct 2026
- 2026OmniMed-Jev: Calibrating LVLM Confidence for Trustworthy Medical Multimodal Decisions via System One30 Sep 2026
- 2026Bongard: Training Machine Intuition30 Sep 2026
- 2026Shared Experience, Separate Learning: Companion Confidence Calibration for LLMs27 Sep 2026
- 2026Typed Decision Models: An Early Evidence Audit and Evaluation Checklist26 Sep 2026
- 2026When the Reward Suite Is Leaky: A Preregistered Causal Contrast of Natural Verifier False Positives in RLVR13 Jul 2026
- 2026Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Physics: Post-training LLMs with Continuous Rewards11 Jul 2026
12 newest of 52 All 52 (JSON)
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