mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty

arXiv 2507.16806 ↗First posted 22 Jul 2025cs.LG cs.AI cs.CLcited by 117

On the map: LLM reasoning → Reinforcement learning for reasoning

also in 1 more
Abstract (arXiv)

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models. Code, models, and further info is available at https://rl-calibration.github.io/.

Key facts. Cited by 117 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 39 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Jul 2025.

Builds on

39 of 56 references.

Closest ancestors · 5

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025BNPO: Beta Normalization Policy Optimization3 Jun
  2. 2025Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future23 May
  3. 2025Open-Reasoner-Zero: An Open Source Approach to Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning on the Base Model31 Mar
  4. 2025Cognitive Behaviors that Enable Self-Improving Reasoners, or, Four Habits of Highly Effective STaRs3 Mar
  5. 2025Big-Math: A Large-Scale, High-Quality Math Dataset for Reinforcement Learning in Language Models24 Feb

Other references · 34

  1. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
  2. 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 9,379
  3. 2021Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Datasetcited by 5,371
  4. 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,754
  5. 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,955
  6. 2023GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmarkcited by 2,879
  7. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  8. 2018CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledgecited by 1,822
  9. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
  10. 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
  11. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
  12. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
22 more
  1. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
  2. 2025Reasoning Models Don't Always Say What They Thinkcited by 415
  3. 2024Measuring short-form factuality in large language modelscited by 373
  4. 20242 OLMo 2 Furiouscited by 340
  5. 2024LLMs Know More Than They Show: On the Intrinsic Representation of LLM Hallucinationscited by 244
  6. 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 210
  7. 2025Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certaintycited by 187
  8. 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 162
  9. 2025AbstentionBench: Reasoning LLMs Fail on Unanswerable Questionscited by 145
  10. 2024Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyondcited by 121
  11. 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMscited by 113
  12. 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 112
  13. 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationalescited by 105
  14. 2019On the Weaknesses of Reinforcement Learning for Neural Machine Translationcited by 82
  15. 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 65
  16. 2025Are Reasoning Models More Prone to Hallucination?cited by 64
  17. 2025Reinforcement Learning Finetunes Small Subnetworks in Large Language Modelscited by 49
  18. 2025The Hallucination Tax of Reinforcement Finetuningcited by 40
  19. 2025Reasoning about Uncertainty: Do Reasoning Models Know When They Don't Know?cited by 38
  20. 2024Improving Uncertainty Estimation through Semantically Diverse Language Generationcited by 35
  21. 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Modelscited by 32
  22. 2025Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluationcited by 18

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 24; 2026: 93.

117 papers.

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  1. 2025Why Language Models Hallucinatecited by 220
  2. 2025Time Is a Feature: Exploiting Temporal Dynamics in Diffusion Language Modelscited by 33
  3. 2025TruthRL: Incentivizing Truthful LLMs via Reinforcement Learningcited by 27
  4. 2025BrokenMath: A Benchmark for Sycophancy in Theorem Proving with LLMscited by 27
  5. 2025Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Futurecited by 21
  6. 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Modelscited by 19
  7. 2025Mitigating LLM Hallucination via Behaviorally Calibrated Reinforcement Learningcited by 18
  8. 2026The Confidence Dichotomy: Analyzing and Mitigating Miscalibration in Tool-Use Agentscited by 16
  9. 2026Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewardscited by 14
  10. 2025Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning for Interactive Multimodal Tool-Use Agentscited by 12
  11. 2025Calibrating LLM Judges: Linear Probes for Fast and Reliable Uncertainty Estimationcited by 9
  12. 2026Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidencecited by 9
38 more
  1. 2026Understanding Reasoning in LLMs through Strategic Information Allocation under Uncertaintycited by 9
  2. 2026The Illusion of Certainty: Decoupling Capability and Calibration in On-Policy Distillationcited by 9
  3. 2025C2GSPG: Confidence-calibrated Group Sequence Policy Gradient towards Self-aware Reasoningcited by 8
  4. 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?cited by 8
  5. 2026VL-Calibration: Decoupled Confidence Calibration for Large Vision-Language Models Reasoningcited by 8
  6. 2026Just Ask Jev: Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions as a Zero-Shot Detector of AI Alignment Failurescited by 8
  7. 2026Knowledge Graphs are Implicit Reward Models: Path-Derived Signals Enable Compositional Reasoningcited by 7
  8. 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capabilitycited by 7
  9. 2026FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agentscited by 7
  10. 2025Zero-Overhead Introspection for Adaptive Test-Time Computecited by 6
  11. 2026NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systemscited by 6
  12. 2026Reaching Beyond the Mode: RL for Distributional Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 6
  13. 2025Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patternscited by 5
  14. 2025Honesty over Accuracy: Trustworthy Language Models through Reinforced Hesitationcited by 5
  15. 2026Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization for Reasoning LLMscited by 5
  16. 2026Scaling Large Reasoning Models beyond Human Supervision: A Path toward Superintelligencecited by 5
  17. 2025Self-Filtered Distillation with LLMs-generated Trust Indicators for Reliable Patent Classificationcited by 4
  18. 2025CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?cited by 4
  19. 2025EmoCaliber: Advancing Reliable Visual Emotion Comprehension via Confidence Verbalization and Calibrationcited by 4
  20. 2026FaithRL: Learning to Reason Faithfully through Step-Level Faithfulness Maximizationcited by 4
  21. 2026Blockwise Advantage Estimation for Multi-Objective RL with Verifiable Rewardscited by 4
  22. 2026StreamingClaw Technical Reportcited by 4
  23. 2026When the Reward Suite Is Leaky: A Preregistered Causal Contrast of Natural Verifier False Positives in RLVRcited by 4
  24. 2025Judging with Confidence: Calibrating Autoraters to Preference Distributionscited by 3
  25. 2025When Bias Pretends to Be Truth: How Spurious Correlations Undermine Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 3
  26. 2025Let the Model Distribute Its Doubt: Confidence Estimation through Verbalized Probability Distributioncited by 3
  27. 2026Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learningcited by 3
  28. 2026PRISM: Festina Lente Proactivity -- Risk-Sensitive, Uncertainty-Aware Deliberation for Proactive Agentscited by 3
  29. 2026Confidence Before Answering: A Paradigm Shift for Efficient LLM Uncertainty Estimationcited by 3
  30. 2026Reinforcement Learning-based Semi-supervised Knowledge Distillation with LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 3
  31. 2026Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inferencecited by 3
  32. 2026Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generationcited by 3
  33. 2026Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecastingcited by 3
  34. 2026Closing the Reflection Gap: A Free Calibration Bonus for Agentic RLcited by 3
  35. 2026Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scalingcited by 3
  36. 2026Abstention as an Action Can Kill Both the Reward Gradient and the KL Anchor: Collapse Law and Repair for Error-Penalized Reinforcement Learningcited by 3
  37. 2026Typed Decision Models: An Early Evidence Audit and Evaluation Checklistcited by 3
  38. 2025Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?cited by 2

50 most cited of 117 All 117 (JSON)

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Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025Beyond Correctness: Confidence-Aware Reward Modeling for Enhancing Large Language Model Reasoning
  2. 2025ConfClip: Confidence-Weighted and Clipped Reward for Reinforcement Learning in LLMs
  3. 2025Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards Implicitly Incentivizes Correct Reasoning in Base LLMs
  4. 2026RL-ARC: Calibrating Large Reasoning Models via Reasoning-guided Uncertainty
  5. 2025The Climb Carves Wisdom Deeper Than the Summit: On the Noisy Rewards in Learning to Reason
  6. 2026Likelihood-Based Reward Designs for General LLM Reasoning
  7. 2026ConSteer-RL: Steering Reasoning Capabilities in Large Language Models via Confidence-Aware Reinforcement Learning
  8. 2025TinyV: Reducing False Negatives in Verification Improves RL for LLM Reasoning