mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models

arXiv 2607.04332 ↗First posted 5 Jul 2026cs.LGcited by 2

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Abstract (arXiv)

In this paper, we consider the setting where large language models (LLMs) are trained using reinforcement learning (RL) to simultaneously improve reasoning accuracy and verbalize their confidence. Our reward scheme uses two functions for rewarding confidence verbalized by the LLM: one for correct answers and the other for incorrect answers. If poorly designed, such a scheme may incentivize an LLM to answer incorrectly in order for its confidence to be calibrated, a phenomenon we term confidence reward hacking. We introduce the notion of non-hackable confidence reward schemes and provide methods for constructing them. We show that selective confidence reward hacking can arise in practical datasets under hackable reward schemes while non-hackable reward schemes are resistant to hacking. Finally, we place some of these schemes along an overconfidence-underconfidence spectrum for RL-based confidence calibration and demonstrate experimentally that they tend to exhibit the corresponding calibration biases relative to other schemes in the spectrum. The code of our experiments is available in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/rl-confidence-calibration-9ED4/README.md.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 23 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 Jul 2026.

Builds on

23 of 41 references.

References · 23

  1. 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 8,851
  2. 2023Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttentioncited by 5,767
  3. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  4. 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,686
  5. 2024Qwen2 Technical Reportcited by 2,076
  6. 2025Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspectivecited by 1,276
  7. 2025SFT Memorizes, RL Generalizes: A Comparative Study of Foundation Model Post-trainingcited by 655
  8. 2025DeepMath-103K: A Large-Scale, Challenging, Decontaminated, and Verifiable Mathematical Dataset for Advancing Reasoningcited by 261
  9. 2025A Survey of Reinforcement Learning for Large Reasoning Modelscited by 175
  10. 2025RL's Razor: Why Online Reinforcement Learning Forgets Lesscited by 162
  11. 2025Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertaintycited by 107
  12. 2025Big-Math: A Large-Scale, High-Quality Math Dataset for Reinforcement Learning in Language Modelscited by 104
11 more
  1. 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationalescited by 102
  2. 2025Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Modelscited by 48
  3. 2025It Takes Two: Your GRPO Is Secretly DPOcited by 25
  4. 2025Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Futurecited by 21
  5. 2025Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomescited by 21
  6. 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Modelscited by 16
  7. 2025Mitigating LLM Hallucination via Behaviorally Calibrated Reinforcement Learningcited by 13
  8. 2025Firm or Fickle? Evaluating Large Language Models Consistency in Sequential Interactionscited by 12
  9. 2026Know When You're Wrong: Aligning Confidence with Correctness for LLM Error Detectioncited by 8
  10. 2026Consistency of Large Reasoning Models Under Multi-Turn Attackscited by 4
  11. 2026Confidence Before Answering: A Paradigm Shift for Efficient LLM Uncertainty Estimationcited by 3

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

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  1. 2025Beyond Correctness: Confidence-Aware Reward Modeling for Enhancing Large Language Model Reasoning
  2. 2026Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling
  3. 2026Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards
  4. 2025ConfClip: Confidence-Weighted and Clipped Reward for Reinforcement Learning in LLMs
  5. 2025The Climb Carves Wisdom Deeper Than the Summit: On the Noisy Rewards in Learning to Reason
  6. 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning
  7. 2025Confidence as a Reward: Transforming LLMs into Reward Models
  8. 2026ConSteer-RL: Steering Reasoning Capabilities in Large Language Models via Confidence-Aware Reinforcement Learning