Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-making tasks, where not only accuracy but also reliable confidence estimates are essential. Well-calibrated confidence enables downstream systems to decide when to trust a model and when to defer to fallback mechanisms. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of calibration in two widely used fine-tuning paradigms: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). We show that while RLVR improves task performance, it produces extremely overconfident models, whereas SFT yields substantially better calibration, even under distribution shift, though with smaller performance gains. Through targeted experiments, we diagnose RLVR's failure, showing that decision tokens act as extraction steps of the decision in reasoning traces and do not carry confidence information, which prevents reinforcement learning from surfacing calibrated alternatives. Based on this insight, we propose a calibration-aware reinforcement learning formulation that directly adjusts decision-token probabilities. Our method preserves RLVR's accuracy level while mitigating overconfidence, reducing ECE scores up to 9 points.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 19 Jan 2026.
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24 of 41 references.
References · 24
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12 more
- 2024Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similaritiescited by 156
- 2025Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertaintycited by 107
- 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 105
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.
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- 2026Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards
- 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning
- 2026Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models
- 2026On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models
- 2026Calibration Collapse Under Sycophancy Fine-Tuning: How Reward Hacking Breaks Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
- 2026Test-time Calibration Learning for Large Language Model Reasoning
- 2025Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Models