mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning

arXiv 2601.13284 ↗First posted 19 Jan 2026cs.LGcited by 1

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-making tasks, where not only accuracy but also reliable confidence estimates are essential. Well-calibrated confidence enables downstream systems to decide when to trust a model and when to defer to fallback mechanisms. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of calibration in two widely used fine-tuning paradigms: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). We show that while RLVR improves task performance, it produces extremely overconfident models, whereas SFT yields substantially better calibration, even under distribution shift, though with smaller performance gains. Through targeted experiments, we diagnose RLVR's failure, showing that decision tokens act as extraction steps of the decision in reasoning traces and do not carry confidence information, which prevents reinforcement learning from surfacing calibrated alternatives. Based on this insight, we propose a calibration-aware reinforcement learning formulation that directly adjusts decision-token probabilities. Our method preserves RLVR's accuracy level while mitigating overconfidence, reducing ECE scores up to 9 points.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 19 Jan 2026.

Builds on

24 of 41 references.

References · 24

  1. 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 8,851
  2. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  3. 2018Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answeringcited by 2,114
  4. 2018CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledgecited by 1,793
  5. 2023Llama Guard: LLM-based Input-Output Safeguard for Human-AI Conversationscited by 1,124
  6. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
  7. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
  8. 2024WildGuard: Open One-Stop Moderation Tools for Safety Risks, Jailbreaks, and Refusals of LLMscited by 460
  9. 2025Open-Reasoner-Zero: An Open Source Approach to Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning on the Base Modelcited by 450
  10. 2019Measuring Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 443
  11. 2019Verified Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 307
  12. 2022Towards Understanding Chain-of-Thought Prompting: An Empirical Study of What Matterscited by 221
12 more
  1. 2024Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similaritiescited by 156
  2. 2025Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertaintycited by 107
  3. 2024Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHFcited by 105
  4. 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationalescited by 102
  5. 2023Batch Calibration: Rethinking Calibration for In-Context Learning and Prompt Engineeringcited by 91
  6. 2024Determinants of LLM-assisted Decision-Makingcited by 55
  7. 2024MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 45
  8. 2025Restoring Calibration for Aligned Large Language Models: A Calibration-Aware Fine-Tuning Approachcited by 25
  9. 2024Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 23
  10. 2024On Calibration of LLM-based Guard Models for Reliable Content Moderationcited by 21
  11. 2025Calibrated Language Models and How to Find Them with Label Smoothingcited by 7
  12. 2025Uncertainty as Feature Gaps: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of LLMs in Contextual Question-Answeringcited by 6

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.

1 paper.

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  1. 2026Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards
  2. 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning
  3. 2026Scaling with Confidence: Calibrating Confidence of LLMs for Adaptive Test Time Scaling
  4. 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models
  5. 2026On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models
  6. 2026Calibration Collapse Under Sycophancy Fine-Tuning: How Reward Hacking Breaks Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
  7. 2026Test-time Calibration Learning for Large Language Model Reasoning
  8. 2025Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Models