mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion

arXiv 2203.13777 ↗First posted 25 Mar 2022cs.CV cs.LGcited by 185

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Cited by 52 in Diffusion models, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Human behavior has the nature of indeterminacy, which requires the pedestrian trajectory prediction system to model the multi-modality of future motion states. Unlike existing stochastic trajectory prediction methods which usually use a latent variable to represent multi-modality, we explicitly simulate the process of human motion variation from indeterminate to determinate. In this paper, we present a new framework to formulate the trajectory prediction task as a reverse process of motion indeterminacy diffusion (MID), in which we progressively discard indeterminacy from all the walkable areas until reaching the desired trajectory. This process is learned with a parameterized Markov chain conditioned by the observed trajectories. We can adjust the length of the chain to control the degree of indeterminacy and balance the diversity and determinacy of the predictions. Specifically, we encode the history behavior information and the social interactions as a state embedding and devise a Transformer-based diffusion model to capture the temporal dependencies of trajectories. Extensive experiments on the human trajectory prediction benchmarks including the Stanford Drone and ETH/UCY datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/gutianpei/MID.

Key facts. Cited by 185 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 43 of its 55 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2022.

Builds on

43 of 55 references.

References · 43

  1. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 21,076
  2. 2015U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentationcited by 19,713
  3. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 9,122
  4. 2021Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesiscited by 8,255
  5. 2015Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamicscited by 7,058
  6. 2022Generative Adversarial Networkscited by 5,627
  7. 2021Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 3,761
  8. 2020DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesiscited by 1,354
  9. 2021Diffusion Probabilistic Models for 3D Point Cloud Generationcited by 735
  10. 2018Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networkscited by 690
  11. 2021ILVR: Conditioning Method for Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 635
  12. 2020WaveGrad: Estimating Gradients for Waveform Generationcited by 622
31 more
  1. 20213D Shape Generation and Completion through Point-Voxel Diffusioncited by 516
  2. 2021Grad-TTS: A Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Text-to-Speechcited by 447
  3. 2020TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Predictioncited by 347
  4. 2020Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 325
  5. 2017DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agentscited by 310
  6. 2018SoPhie: An Attentive GAN for Predicting Paths Compliant to Social and Physical Constraintscited by 298
  7. 2020It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Predictioncited by 236
  8. 2019Social-BiGAT: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting using Bicycle-GAN and Graph Attention Networkscited by 229
  9. 2021Gotta Go Fast When Generating Data with Score-Based Modelscited by 219
  10. 2020Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 218
  11. 2017Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowdscited by 186
  12. 2019Multiple Futures Predictioncited by 178
  13. 2020From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecastingcited by 167
  14. 2019Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion for Contextual Trajectory Predictioncited by 131
  15. 2021Learning to Efficiently Sample from Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 129
  16. 2019SR-LSTM: State Refinement for LSTM towards Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 111
  17. 2021Noise Estimation for Generative Diffusion Modelscited by 94
  18. 2020TPNet: Trajectory Proposal Network for Motion Predictioncited by 80
  19. 2019Conditional Generative Neural System for Probabilistic Trajectory Predictioncited by 76
  20. 2019The Garden of Forking Paths: Towards Multi-Future Trajectory Predictioncited by 72
  21. 2020Trajectory Forecasts in Unknown Environments Conditioned on Grid-Based Planscited by 72
  22. 2020Recursive Social Behavior Graph for Trajectory Predictioncited by 66
  23. 2021MG-GAN: A Multi-Generator Model Preventing Out-of-Distribution Samples in Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 61
  24. 2021Trajectory Prediction with Latent Belief Energy-Based Modelcited by 60
  25. 2020Social NCE: Contrastive Learning of Socially-aware Motion Representationscited by 58
  26. 2021Three Steps to Multimodal Trajectory Prediction: Modality Clustering, Classification and Synthesiscited by 46
  27. 2017Soft + Hardwired Attention: An LSTM Framework for Human Trajectory Prediction and Abnormal Event Detectioncited by 42
  28. 2021Human Trajectory Prediction via Counterfactual Analysiscited by 42
  29. 2020Reciprocal Learning Networks for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 30
  30. 2021Personalized Trajectory Prediction via Distribution Discriminationcited by 30
  31. 2021You Mostly Walk Alone: Analyzing Feature Attribution in Trajectory Predictioncited by 23

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 10; 2023: 36; 2024: 50; 2025: 57; 2026: 32.

185 papers.

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  1. 2023MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusioncited by 213
  2. 2022Guided Conditional Diffusion for Controllable Traffic Simulationcited by 190
  3. 2023Trace and Pace: Controllable Pedestrian Animation via Guided Trajectory Diffusioncited by 138
  4. 2023Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Predictioncited by 132
  5. 2023Language-Guided Traffic Simulation via Scene-Level Diffusioncited by 111
  6. 2022DiffPose: Toward More Reliable 3D Pose Estimationcited by 100
  7. 2023EqMotion: Equivariant Multi-agent Motion Prediction with Invariant Interaction Reasoningcited by 97
  8. 2022BeLFusion: Latent Diffusion for Behavior-Driven Human Motion Predictioncited by 82
  9. 2023Spatio-temporal Diffusion Point Processescited by 52
  10. 2022Learning Pedestrian Group Representations for Multi-modal Trajectory Predictioncited by 44
  11. 2023EigenTrajectory: Low-Rank Descriptors for Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecastingcited by 41
  12. 2023SAFE-SIM: Safety-Critical Closed-Loop Traffic Simulation with Diffusion-Controllable Adversariescited by 38
38 more
  1. 2024SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Modelcited by 35
  2. 2023Social-Transmotion: Promptable Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 33
  3. 2024Can Language Beat Numerical Regression? Language-Based Multimodal Trajectory Predictioncited by 31
  4. 2025MoFlow: One-Step Flow Matching for Human Trajectory Forecasting via Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation based Distillationcited by 31
  5. 2022Dynamic-Group-Aware Networks for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoningcited by 28
  6. 2022Human Joint Kinematics Diffusion-Refinement for Stochastic Motion Predictioncited by 28
  7. 2023Stochastic Multi-Person 3D Motion Forecastingcited by 28
  8. 2024Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling for Denoising Diffusion Priorscited by 28
  9. 2023Fast Inference and Update of Probabilistic Density Estimation on Trajectory Predictioncited by 27
  10. 2023Diffusion-based Image Translation with Label Guidance for Domain Adaptive Semantic Segmentationcited by 27
  11. 2023Distribution-Aligned Diffusion for Human Mesh Recoverycited by 27
  12. 2023SocialCircle: Learning the Angle-based Social Interaction Representation for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 27
  13. 2022GATraj: A Graph- and Attention-based Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Modelcited by 26
  14. 2024LG-Traj: LLM Guided Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 25
  15. 2023SceneDM: Scene-level Multi-agent Trajectory Generation with Consistent Diffusion Modelscited by 24
  16. 20236D-Diff: A Keypoint Diffusion Framework for 6D Object Pose Estimationcited by 24
  17. 2024Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 22
  18. 2023EquiDiff: A Conditional Equivariant Diffusion Model For Trajectory Predictioncited by 21
  19. 2024MART: MultiscAle Relational Transformer Networks for Multi-agent Trajectory Predictioncited by 21
  20. 2024Multi-Transmotion: Pre-trained Model for Human Motion Predictioncited by 21
  21. 2023Unsupervised Domain Adaptation via Domain-Adaptive Diffusioncited by 20
  22. 2024Multi-Agent Dynamic Relational Reasoning for Social Robot Navigationcited by 20
  23. 2024AdvDiffuser: Generating Adversarial Safety-Critical Driving Scenarios via Guided Diffusioncited by 20
  24. 2024Sports-Traj: A Unified Trajectory Generation Model for Multi-Agent Movement in Sportscited by 19
  25. 2023DICE: Diverse Diffusion Model with Scoring for Trajectory Predictioncited by 18
  26. 2024Optimizing Diffusion Models for Joint Trajectory Prediction and Controllable Generationcited by 18
  27. 2023Unsupervised Sampling Promoting for Stochastic Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 17
  28. 2024Progressive Pretext Task Learning for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 16
  29. 2024Geometric Trajectory Diffusion Modelscited by 15
  30. 2025Unified Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion for Multi-Agent Trajectory Modelingcited by 15
  31. 2022STGlow: A Flow-based Generative Framework with Dual Graphormer for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 14
  32. 2023Another Vertical View: A Hierarchical Network for Heterogeneous Trajectory Prediction via Spectrumscited by 14
  33. 2024Diffusion-Based Environment-Aware Trajectory Predictioncited by 14
  34. 2025DDAT: Diffusion Policies Enforcing Dynamically Admissible Robot Trajectoriescited by 14
  35. 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directionscited by 14
  36. 2022Collaborative Uncertainty Benefits Multi-Agent Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecastingcited by 13
  37. 2023Uncertainty-Aware Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction via Distributional Diffusioncited by 13
  38. 2024Intention-aware Denoising Diffusion Model for Trajectory Predictioncited by 11

50 most cited of 185 All 185 (JSON)

Similar, not cited

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  1. 2025Intention-Aware Diffusion Model for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction
  2. 2024Predicting Long-Term Human Behaviors in Discrete Representations via Physics-Guided Diffusion
  3. 2024MDMP: Multi-modal Diffusion for supervised Motion Predictions with uncertainty
  4. 2025Dynamic Population Distribution Aware Human Trajectory Generation with Diffusion Model
  5. 2026DD-MDN: Human Trajectory Forecasting with Diffusion-Based Dual Mixture Density Networks and Uncertainty Self-Calibration
  6. 2026Diverse Yet Consistent: Context-Guided Diffusion with Energy-Based Joint Refinement for Multi-Agent Motion Prediction
  7. 2024Resonance: Learning to Predict Social-Aware Pedestrian Trajectories as Co-Vibrations
  8. 2025SocialTraj: Two-Stage Socially-Aware Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving via Conditional Diffusion Model