Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions
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Abstract (arXiv)
As the potential for autonomous vehicles to be integrated on a large scale into modern traffic systems continues to grow, ensuring safe navigation in dynamic environments is crucial for smooth integration. To guarantee safety and prevent collisions, autonomous vehicles must be capable of accurately predicting the trajectories of surrounding traffic agents. Over the past decade, significant efforts from both academia and industry have been dedicated to designing solutions for precise trajectory forecasting. These efforts have produced a diverse range of approaches, raising questions about the differences between these methods and whether trajectory prediction challenges have been fully addressed. This paper reviews a substantial portion of recent trajectory prediction methods proposing a taxonomy to classify existing solutions. A general overview of the prediction pipeline is also provided, covering input and output modalities, modeling features, and prediction paradigms existing in the literature. In addition, the paper discusses active research areas within trajectory prediction, addresses the posed research questions, and highlights the remaining research gaps and challenges.
Key facts. Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 302 of its 563 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 Mar 2025.
Builds on
302 of 563 references.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 9.
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- 2025ResAD: Normalized Residual Trajectory Modeling for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 14
- 2025MindDrive: An All-in-One Framework Bridging World Models and Vision-Language Model for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 12
- 2025TrajEvo: Designing Trajectory Prediction Heuristics via LLM-driven Evolutioncited by 5
- 2026AGMA: Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Anchors for Prior-Guided Multimodal Human Trajectory Forecastingcited by 1
- 2025Great GATsBi: Hybrid, Multimodal, Trajectory Forecasting for Bicycles using Anticipation Mechanismcited by 0
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory predictioncited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Model for Multimodal Highway Trajectory Prediction via DDIM Samplingcited by 0
- 2026Digital-Twin Losses for Lane-Compliant Trajectory Prediction at Urban Intersectionscited by 0
- 2026TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2026Frozen LLMs as Map-Aware Spatio-Temporal Reasoners for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026ECTraj: Enhanced Consistency Training for Multi-Agent Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026PRISA: Proactive Infrastructure LiDAR Framework for Intersection Safety Assessment17 Jul 2026
- 2026Mind the Noise: Sensitivity of Transformer-based Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction Models to Noisy Data19 Jun 2026
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Prediction12 Jun 2026
- 2026ECTraj: Enhanced Consistency Training for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction9 May 2026
- 2026Frozen LLMs as Map-Aware Spatio-Temporal Reasoners for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction23 Apr 2026
- 2026TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Driving6 Mar 2026
- 2026Digital-Twin Losses for Lane-Compliant Trajectory Prediction at Urban Intersections4 Mar 2026
- 2026Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Model for Multimodal Highway Trajectory Prediction via DDIM Sampling24 Feb 2026
- 2026AGMA: Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Anchors for Prior-Guided Multimodal Human Trajectory Forecasting4 Feb 2026
- 2025MindDrive: An All-in-One Framework Bridging World Models and Vision-Language Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving4 Dec 2025
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory prediction24 Nov 2025
- 2025ResAD: Normalized Residual Trajectory Modeling for End-to-End Autonomous Driving9 Oct 2025
- 2025TrajEvo: Designing Trajectory Prediction Heuristics via LLM-driven Evolutioncited by 5
- 2026AGMA: Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Anchors for Prior-Guided Multimodal Human Trajectory Forecastingcited by 1
- 2025Great GATsBi: Hybrid, Multimodal, Trajectory Forecasting for Bicycles using Anticipation Mechanismcited by 0
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory predictioncited by 0
- 2026Digital-Twin Losses for Lane-Compliant Trajectory Prediction at Urban Intersectionscited by 0
- 2026TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
- 2026Mind the Noise: Sensitivity of Transformer-based Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction Models to Noisy Datacited by 0
- 2026PRISA: Proactive Infrastructure LiDAR Framework for Intersection Safety Assessmentcited by 0
- 2026PRISA: Proactive Infrastructure LiDAR Framework for Intersection Safety Assessment17 Jul 2026
- 2026Mind the Noise: Sensitivity of Transformer-based Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction Models to Noisy Data19 Jun 2026
- 2026A Comparative Study of Graph Neural Network Layer Selection for Interaction Modelling in Driving Trajectory Prediction12 Jun 2026
- 2026TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Driving6 Mar 2026
- 2026Digital-Twin Losses for Lane-Compliant Trajectory Prediction at Urban Intersections4 Mar 2026
- 2026AGMA: Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Anchors for Prior-Guided Multimodal Human Trajectory Forecasting4 Feb 2026
- 2025GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory prediction24 Nov 2025
- 2025Great GATsBi: Hybrid, Multimodal, Trajectory Forecasting for Bicycles using Anticipation Mechanism20 Aug 2025
- 2025TrajEvo: Designing Trajectory Prediction Heuristics via LLM-driven Evolution7 May 2025