mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting

arXiv 2012.01526 ↗First posted 2 Dec 2020cs.CV cs.AI cs.ROcited by 167

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Abstract (arXiv)

Human trajectory forecasting is an inherently multi-modal problem. Uncertainty in future trajectories stems from two sources: (a) sources that are known to the agent but unknown to the model, such as long term goals and (b)sources that are unknown to both the agent & the model, such as intent of other agents & irreducible randomness indecisions. We propose to factorize this uncertainty into its epistemic & aleatoric sources. We model the epistemic un-certainty through multimodality in long term goals and the aleatoric uncertainty through multimodality in waypoints& paths. To exemplify this dichotomy, we also propose a novel long term trajectory forecasting setting, with prediction horizons upto a minute, an order of magnitude longer than prior works. Finally, we presentY-net, a scene com-pliant trajectory forecasting network that exploits the pro-posed epistemic & aleatoric structure for diverse trajectory predictions across long prediction horizons.Y-net significantly improves previous state-of-the-art performance on both (a) The well studied short prediction horizon settings on the Stanford Drone & ETH/UCY datasets and (b) The proposed long prediction horizon setting on the re-purposed Stanford Drone & Intersection Drone datasets.

Key facts. Cited by 167 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2020.

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 14; 2022: 27; 2023: 41; 2024: 44; 2025: 25; 2026: 16.

167 papers.

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  1. 2022Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusioncited by 185
  2. 2023Think Twice before Driving: Towards Scalable Decoders for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 169
  3. 2021GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 146
  4. 2023Trace and Pace: Controllable Pedestrian Animation via Guided Trajectory Diffusioncited by 138
  5. 2023Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Predictioncited by 132
  6. 2023Vision Language Models in Autonomous Driving: A Survey and Outlookcited by 126
  7. 2021HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimationcited by 122
  8. 2022Joint Hand Motion and Interaction Hotspots Prediction from Egocentric Videoscited by 111
  9. 2022SocialVAE: Human Trajectory Prediction using Timewise Latentscited by 67
  10. 2022Human Trajectory Prediction via Neural Social Physicscited by 66
  11. 2022MUSE-VAE: Multi-Scale VAE for Environment-Aware Long Term Trajectory Predictioncited by 59
  12. 2021LOKI: Long Term and Key Intentions for Trajectory Predictioncited by 57
38 more
  1. 2022Adaptive Trajectory Prediction via Transferable GNNcited by 51
  2. 2023Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Predictioncited by 47
  3. 2021View Vertically: A Hierarchical Network for Trajectory Prediction via Fourier Spectrumscited by 45
  4. 2023EigenTrajectory: Low-Rank Descriptors for Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecastingcited by 41
  5. 2021Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspectivecited by 40
  6. 2022Social-Implicit: Rethinking Trajectory Prediction Evaluation and The Effectiveness of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimationcited by 40
  7. 2024SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Modelcited by 35
  8. 2023Social-Transmotion: Promptable Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 33
  9. 2023FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Predictioncited by 31
  10. 2024Can Language Beat Numerical Regression? Language-Based Multimodal Trajectory Predictioncited by 31
  11. 2025MoFlow: One-Step Flow Matching for Human Trajectory Forecasting via Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation based Distillationcited by 31
  12. 2024Multi-agent Long-term 3D Human Pose Forecasting via Interaction-aware Trajectory Conditioningcited by 30
  13. 2022Goal-driven Self-Attentive Recurrent Networks for Trajectory Predictioncited by 29
  14. 2022Quo Vadis: Is Trajectory Forecasting the Key Towards Long-Term Multi-Object Tracking?cited by 29
  15. 2024Divide-and-Conquer Posterior Sampling for Denoising Diffusion Priorscited by 28
  16. 2023Fast Inference and Update of Probabilistic Density Estimation on Trajectory Predictioncited by 27
  17. 2023SocialCircle: Learning the Angle-based Social Interaction Representation for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 27
  18. 2022SMEMO: Social Memory for Trajectory Forecastingcited by 26
  19. 2023NOPA: Neurally-guided Online Probabilistic Assistance for Building Socially Intelligent Home Assistantscited by 23
  20. 2023StillFast: An End-to-End Approach for Short-Term Object Interaction Anticipationcited by 23
  21. 2023Robots That Can See: Leveraging Human Pose for Trajectory Predictioncited by 23
  22. 2022End-to-End Trajectory Distribution Prediction Based on Occupancy Grid Mapscited by 22
  23. 2022Interpretable Self-Aware Neural Networks for Robust Trajectory Predictioncited by 22
  24. 2024ROADWork: A Dataset and Benchmark for Learning to Recognize, Observe, Analyze and Drive Through Work Zonescited by 22
  25. 2021MSN: Multi-Style Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 19
  26. 2021SSAGCN: Social Soft Attention Graph Convolution Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 19
  27. 2022LatentFormer: Multi-Agent Transformer-Based Interaction Modeling and Trajectory Predictioncited by 19
  28. 2025Trajectory Mamba: Efficient Attention-Mamba Forecasting Model Based on Selective SSMcited by 18
  29. 2023Unsupervised Sampling Promoting for Stochastic Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 17
  30. 2023Joint Metrics Matter: A Better Standard for Trajectory Forecastingcited by 17
  31. 2024Progressive Pretext Task Learning for Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 16
  32. 2022PoseBERT: A Generic Transformer Module for Temporal 3D Human Modelingcited by 15
  33. 2022Forecasting Human Trajectory from Scene Historycited by 14
  34. 2022STGlow: A Flow-based Generative Framework with Dual Graphormer for Pedestrian Trajectory Predictioncited by 14
  35. 2023Another Vertical View: A Hierarchical Network for Heterogeneous Trajectory Prediction via Spectrumscited by 14
  36. 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directionscited by 14
  37. 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory predictioncited by 13
  38. 2021HYPER: Learned Hybrid Trajectory Prediction via Factored Inference and Adaptive Samplingcited by 12

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