Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactions
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Abstract (arXiv)
We focus on the problem of predicting future states of entities in complex, real-world driving scenarios. Previous research has used low-level signals to predict short time horizons, and has not addressed how to leverage key assets relied upon heavily by industry self-driving systems: (1) large 3D perception efforts which provide highly accurate 3D states of agents with rich attributes, and (2) detailed and accurate semantic maps of the environment (lanes, traffic lights, crosswalks, etc). We present a unified representation which encodes such high-level semantic information in a spatial grid, allowing the use of deep convolutional models to fuse complex scene context. This enables learning entity-entity and entity-environment interactions with simple, feed-forward computations in each timestep within an overall temporal model of an agent's behavior. We propose different ways of modelling the future as a distribution over future states using standard supervised learning. We introduce a novel dataset providing industry-grade rich perception and semantic inputs, and empirically show we can effectively learn fundamentals of driving behavior.
Key facts. Cited by 117 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 21 Jun 2019.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 28; 2022: 33; 2023: 25; 2024: 16; 2025: 9; 2026: 6.
117 papers.
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- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
- 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 292
- 2022Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networkscited by 279
- 2022Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinementcited by 267
- 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
- 2021FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Camerascited by 239
- 2021Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformerscited by 207
- 2021Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectoriescited by 165
- 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 154
- 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 139
- 2022ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queriescited by 116
- 2022HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encodingcited by 109
38 more
- 2022PlanT: Explainable Planning Transformers via Object-Level Representationscited by 105
- 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
- 2021Structured Bird's-Eye-View Traffic Scene Understanding from Onboard Imagescited by 98
- 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Drivingcited by 96
- 2022GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecastingcited by 68
- 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63
- 2022Occupancy Flow Fields for Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Drivingcited by 62
- 2022Motion Inspired Unsupervised Perception and Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 59
- 2022StretchBEV: Stretching Future Instance Prediction Spatially and Temporallycited by 47
- 2023Scenario Diffusion: Controllable Driving Scenario Generation With Diffusioncited by 46
- 2021Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywherecited by 39
- 2023ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptationcited by 39
- 2021Learnable Online Graph Representations for 3D Multi-Object Trackingcited by 38
- 2021Divide-and-Conquer for Lane-Aware Diverse Trajectory Predictioncited by 37
- 2021Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 36
- 2021Spatio-Temporal Graph Dual-Attention Network for Multi-Agent Prediction and Trackingcited by 35
- 2024LC-LLM: Explainable Lane-Change Intention and Trajectory Predictions with Large Language Modelscited by 35
- 2021Topology Preserving Local Road Network Estimation from Single Onboard Camera Imagecited by 34
- 2022Behavioral Intention Prediction in Driving Scenes: A Surveycited by 30
- 2023WOMD-LiDAR: Raw Sensor Dataset Benchmark for Motion Forecastingcited by 28
- 2023Dynamic Scenario Representation Learning for Motion Forecasting with Heterogeneous Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networkscited by 27
- 2023Grid-Centric Traffic Scenario Perception for Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Reviewcited by 25
- 2023PowerBEV: A Powerful Yet Lightweight Framework for Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye Viewcited by 24
- 2021Learning by Watchingcited by 22
- 2021Congestion-aware Multi-agent Trajectory Prediction for Collision Avoidancecited by 21
- 2022CRAT-Pred: Vehicle Trajectory Prediction with Crystal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks and Multi-Head Self-Attentioncited by 21
- 2022MotionCNN: A Strong Baseline for Motion Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 21
- 2021Deep Structured Reactive Planningcited by 18
- 2022CausalAgents: A Robustness Benchmark for Motion Forecasting using Causal Relationshipscited by 18
- 2023SCENE: Reasoning about Traffic Scenes using Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networkscited by 18
- 2021Collaborative Uncertainty in Multi-Agent Trajectory Forecastingcited by 17
- 2023Generating Driving Scenes with Diffusioncited by 16
- 2021Safety-aware Motion Prediction with Unseen Vehicles for Autonomous Drivingcited by 15
- 2022StopNet: Scalable Trajectory and Occupancy Prediction for Urban Autonomous Drivingcited by 14
- 2023Scene Informer: Anchor-based Occlusion Inference and Trajectory Prediction in Partially Observable Environmentscited by 14
- 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directionscited by 14
- 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory predictioncited by 13
- 2022MPA: MultiPath++ Based Architecture for Motion Predictioncited by 13
50 most cited of 117 All 117 (JSON)
- 2026Choose Your Game Wisely: Measuring Game-Theoretic Structures in Real-World Vehicle Interactions26 Aug 2026
- 2026Towards Metric-Agnostic Trajectory Forecasting1 Jul 2026
- 2026Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling21 May 2026
- 2026VL-DPO: Vision-Language-Guided Finetuning for Preference-Aligned Autonomous Driving19 May 2026
- 2026A Prediction-as-Perception Framework for 3D Object Detection13 Mar 2026
- 2026LLM-MLFFN: Multi-Level Autonomous Driving Behavior Feature Fusion via Large Language Model3 Mar 2026
- 2025Enhanced Motion Forecasting with Plug-and-Play Multimodal Large Language Models20 Oct 2025
- 2025Ensemble of Pre-Trained Models for Long-Tailed Trajectory Prediction17 Sep 2025
- 2025BEVTraj: Map-Free End-to-End Trajectory Prediction in Bird's-Eye View with Deformable Attention and Sparse Goal Proposals12 Sep 2025
- 2025ProgD: Progressive Multi-scale Decoding with Dynamic Graphs for Joint Multi-agent Motion Forecasting11 Sep 2025
- 2025ILNet: Trajectory Prediction with Inverse Learning Attention for Enhancing Intention Capture9 Jul 2025
- 2025DONUT: A Decoder-Only Model for Trajectory Prediction7 Jun 2025
38 more
- 2025CogAD: Cognitive-Hierarchy Guided End-to-End Autonomous Driving27 May 2025
- 2025Future-Aware Interaction Network For Motion Forecasting9 Mar 2025
- 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions5 Mar 2025
- 2024DECODE: Domain-aware Continual Domain Expansion for Motion Prediction26 Nov 2024
- 2024ModeSeq: Taming Sparse Multimodal Motion Prediction with Sequential Mode Modeling17 Nov 2024
- 2024Flow-guided Motion Prediction with Semantics and Dynamic Occupancy Grid Maps22 Jul 2024
- 2024FutureNet-LOF: Joint Trajectory Prediction and Lane Occupancy Field Prediction with Future Context Encoding20 Jun 2024
- 2024SocialFormer: Social Interaction Modeling with Edge-enhanced Heterogeneous Graph Transformers for Trajectory Prediction6 May 2024
- 2024GAD-Generative Learning for HD Map-Free Autonomous Driving1 May 2024
- 2024MoST: Multi-modality Scene Tokenization for Motion Prediction30 Apr 2024
- 2024SemanticFormer: Holistic and Semantic Traffic Scene Representation for Trajectory Prediction using Knowledge Graphs30 Apr 2024
- 2024Scaling Motion Forecasting Models with Ensemble Distillation5 Apr 2024
- 2024OFMPNet: Deep End-to-End Model for Occupancy and Flow Prediction in Urban Environment2 Apr 2024
- 2024LC-LLM: Explainable Lane-Change Intention and Trajectory Predictions with Large Language Models27 Mar 2024
- 2024TAFormer: A Unified Target-Aware Transformer for Video and Motion Joint Prediction in Aerial Scenes27 Mar 2024
- 2024ProIn: Learning to Predict Trajectory Based on Progressive Interactions for Autonomous Driving25 Mar 2024
- 2024Translating Images to Road Network: A Sequence-to-Sequence Perspective13 Feb 2024
- 2024LaneGraph2Seq: Lane Topology Extraction with Language Model via Vertex-Edge Encoding and Connectivity Enhancement31 Jan 2024
- 2024FIMP: Future Interaction Modeling for Multi-Agent Motion Prediction29 Jan 2024
- 2023Heterogeneous Graph-based Trajectory Prediction using Local Map Context and Social Interactions30 Nov 2023
- 2023Scenario Diffusion: Controllable Driving Scenario Generation With Diffusion5 Nov 2023
- 2023OSM vs HD Maps: Map Representations for Trajectory Prediction4 Nov 2023
- 2023Conditional Unscented Autoencoders for Trajectory Prediction30 Oct 2023
- 2023Exploring Driving Behavior for Autonomous Vehicles Based on Gramian Angular Field Vision Transformer21 Oct 2023
- 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modeling28 Sep 2023
- 2023Scene Informer: Anchor-based Occlusion Inference and Trajectory Prediction in Partially Observable Environments25 Sep 2023
- 2023RMP: A Random Mask Pretrain Framework for Motion Prediction16 Sep 2023
- 2023ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptation26 Jul 2023
- 2023Prior Based Online Lane Graph Extraction from Single Onboard Camera Image25 Jul 2023
- 2023Improving Online Lane Graph Extraction by Object-Lane Clustering20 Jul 2023
- 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying30 Jun 2023
- 2023Enhancing Mapless Trajectory Prediction through Knowledge Distillation25 Jun 2023
- 2023BiFF: Bi-level Future Fusion with Polyline-based Coordinate for Interactive Trajectory Prediction25 Jun 2023
- 2023PowerBEV: A Powerful Yet Lightweight Framework for Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View19 Jun 2023
- 2023SAPI: Surroundings-Aware Vehicle Trajectory Prediction at Intersections2 Jun 2023
- 2023Generating Driving Scenes with Diffusion29 May 2023
- 2023TSGN: Temporal Scene Graph Neural Networks with Projected Vectorized Representation for Multi-Agent Motion Prediction14 May 2023
- 2023FlowMap: Path Generation for Automated Vehicles in Open Space Using Traffic Flow2 May 2023
50 newest of 117 All 117 (JSON)
- 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Drivingcited by 96
- 2023Grid-Centric Traffic Scenario Perception for Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Reviewcited by 25
- 2021Learning by Watchingcited by 22
- 2025CogAD: Cognitive-Hierarchy Guided End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 4
- 2022Calibrating Perception Uncertainty for Autonomous Drivingcited by 3
- 2026VL-DPO: Vision-Language-Guided Finetuning for Preference-Aligned Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
- 2022Enhanced Behavioral Cloning with Environmental Losses for Self-Driving Vehiclescited by 0
- 2026LLM-MLFFN: Multi-Level Autonomous Driving Behavior Feature Fusion via Large Language Modelcited by 0
- 2026VL-DPO: Vision-Language-Guided Finetuning for Preference-Aligned Autonomous Driving19 May 2026
- 2026LLM-MLFFN: Multi-Level Autonomous Driving Behavior Feature Fusion via Large Language Model3 Mar 2026
- 2025CogAD: Cognitive-Hierarchy Guided End-to-End Autonomous Driving27 May 2025
- 2023Grid-Centric Traffic Scenario Perception for Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Review2 Mar 2023
- 2022Calibrating Perception Uncertainty for Autonomous Driving8 Nov 2022
- 2022Enhanced Behavioral Cloning with Environmental Losses for Self-Driving Vehicles4 Feb 2022
- 2021Learning by Watching10 Jun 2021
- 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Driving16 Jan 2021
- 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 154
- 2025Future-Aware Interaction Network For Motion Forecastingcited by 4
- 2025Future-Aware Interaction Network For Motion Forecasting9 Mar 2025
- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
- 2021DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Setscited by 292
- 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
- 2021FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Camerascited by 239
- 2021Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformerscited by 207
- 2023MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Queryingcited by 139
- 2022ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queriescited by 116
- 2022HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encodingcited by 109
- 2022PlanT: Explainable Planning Transformers via Object-Level Representationscited by 105
- 2021THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Samplingcited by 101
- 2021Structured Bird's-Eye-View Traffic Scene Understanding from Onboard Imagescited by 98
- 2022GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecastingcited by 68
12 most cited of 103 All 103 (JSON)
- 2026Choose Your Game Wisely: Measuring Game-Theoretic Structures in Real-World Vehicle Interactions26 Aug 2026
- 2026Towards Metric-Agnostic Trajectory Forecasting1 Jul 2026
- 2026Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling21 May 2026
- 2026A Prediction-as-Perception Framework for 3D Object Detection13 Mar 2026
- 2025Ensemble of Pre-Trained Models for Long-Tailed Trajectory Prediction17 Sep 2025
- 2025BEVTraj: Map-Free End-to-End Trajectory Prediction in Bird's-Eye View with Deformable Attention and Sparse Goal Proposals12 Sep 2025
- 2025ProgD: Progressive Multi-scale Decoding with Dynamic Graphs for Joint Multi-agent Motion Forecasting11 Sep 2025
- 2025ILNet: Trajectory Prediction with Inverse Learning Attention for Enhancing Intention Capture9 Jul 2025
- 2025DONUT: A Decoder-Only Model for Trajectory Prediction7 Jun 2025
- 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions5 Mar 2025
- 2024DECODE: Domain-aware Continual Domain Expansion for Motion Prediction26 Nov 2024
- 2024ModeSeq: Taming Sparse Multimodal Motion Prediction with Sequential Mode Modeling17 Nov 2024
12 newest of 103 All 103 (JSON)