Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated
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Abstract (arXiv)
Counterfactual explanations are emerging as an attractive option for providing recourse to individuals adversely impacted by algorithmic decisions. As they are deployed in critical applications (e.g. law enforcement, financial lending), it becomes important to ensure that we clearly understand the vulnerabilities of these methods and find ways to address them. However, there is little understanding of the vulnerabilities and shortcomings of counterfactual explanations. In this work, we introduce the first framework that describes the vulnerabilities of counterfactual explanations and shows how they can be manipulated. More specifically, we show counterfactual explanations may converge to drastically different counterfactuals under a small perturbation indicating they are not robust. Leveraging this insight, we introduce a novel objective to train seemingly fair models where counterfactual explanations find much lower cost recourse under a slight perturbation. We describe how these models can unfairly provide low-cost recourse for specific subgroups in the data while appearing fair to auditors. We perform experiments on loan and violent crime prediction data sets where certain subgroups achieve up to 20x lower cost recourse under the perturbation. These results raise concerns regarding the dependability of current counterfactual explanation techniques, which we hope will inspire investigations in robust counterfactual explanations.
Key facts. Cited by 113 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 30 of its 47 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Jun 2021.
Builds on
30 of 47 references.
References · 30
- 2017A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictionscited by 6,488
- 2016"Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifiercited by 5,040
- 2017Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPRcited by 1,086
- 2019Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanationscited by 612
- 2019Fooling LIME and SHAP: Adversarial Attacks on Post hoc Explanation Methodscited by 440
- 2018Actionable Recourse in Linear Classificationcited by 327
- 2018Explanations based on the Missing: Towards Contrastive Explanations with Pertinent Negativescited by 261
- 2020Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventionscited by 250
- 2019FACE: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanationscited by 232
- 2019Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations Guided by Prototypescited by 223
- 2019Explainable Machine Learning in Deploymentcited by 210
- 2018A comparative study of fairness-enhancing interventions in machine learningcited by 208
18 more
- 2019Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanations for Consequential Decisionscited by 204
- 2019Predictive Multiplicity in Classificationcited by 162
- 2019Learning Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanations for Tabular Datacited by 146
- 2020Algorithmic recourse under imperfect causal knowledge: a probabilistic approachcited by 139
- 2020A survey of algorithmic recourse: definitions, formulations, solutions, and prospectscited by 118
- 2019The Hidden Assumptions Behind Counterfactual Explanations and Principal Reasonscited by 115
- 2016On Differentiating Parameterized Argmin and Argmax Problems with Application to Bi-level Optimizationcited by 108
- 2019Fairwashing: the risk of rationalizationcited by 81
- 2020On Counterfactual Explanations under Predictive Multiplicitycited by 73
- 2020Fairwashing Explanations with Off-Manifold Detergentcited by 71
- 2020On the Fairness of Causal Algorithmic Recoursecited by 69
- 2018The age of secrecy and unfairness in recidivism predictioncited by 53
- 2021The Use and Misuse of Counterfactuals in Ethical Machine Learningcited by 52
- 2019Equalizing Recourse across Groupscited by 51
- 2020Decisions, Counterfactual Explanations and Strategic Behaviorcited by 44
- 2020Gradient-based Analysis of NLP Models is Manipulablecited by 41
- 2020Can I Trust My Fairness Metric? Assessing Fairness with Unlabeled Data and Bayesian Inferencecited by 31
- 2020Active Bayesian Assessment for Black-Box Classifierscited by 16
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 6; 2022: 16; 2023: 35; 2024: 27; 2025: 14; 2026: 15.
113 papers.
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- 2022Text and Patterns: For Effective Chain of Thought, It Takes Two to Tangocited by 128
- 2023Faithfulness Tests for Natural Language Explanationscited by 107
- 2025Archetypal SAE: Adaptive and Stable Dictionary Learning for Concept Extraction in Large Vision Modelscited by 67
- 2021On the Adversarial Robustness of Causal Algorithmic Recoursecited by 56
- 2022Framework for Evaluating Faithfulness of Local Explanationscited by 55
- 2022Post-Hoc Explanations Fail to Achieve their Purpose in Adversarial Contextscited by 53
- 2023Sequential Integrated Gradients: a simple but effective method for explaining language modelscited by 52
- 2023Adversarial attacks and defenses in explainable artificial intelligence: A surveycited by 47
- 2023Fast Diffusion-Based Counterfactuals for Shortcut Removal and Generationcited by 41
- 2022Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recoursecited by 40
- 2021A Survey on the Robustness of Feature Importance and Counterfactual Explanationscited by 38
- 2022Don't Lie to Me! Robust and Efficient Explainability with Verified Perturbation Analysiscited by 38
38 more
- 2022On the Robustness of Sparse Counterfactual Explanations to Adverse Perturbationscited by 32
- 2022On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recoursecited by 32
- 2024On the Challenges and Opportunities in Generative AIcited by 31
- 2024Robust Counterfactual Explanations in Machine Learning: A Surveycited by 29
- 2021Transport-based Counterfactual Modelscited by 27
- 2023GLOBE-CE: A Translation-Based Approach for Global Counterfactual Explanationscited by 27
- 2022Formalising the Robustness of Counterfactual Explanations for Neural Networkscited by 24
- 2022On the Trade-Off between Actionable Explanations and the Right to be Forgottencited by 20
- 2023Finding Regions of Counterfactual Explanations via Robust Optimizationcited by 19
- 2024Graph Neural Network Explanations are Fragilecited by 18
- 2023Latent Diffusion Counterfactual Explanationscited by 17
- 2023Promoting Counterfactual Robustness through Diversitycited by 17
- 2023A Critical Survey on Fairness Benefits of Explainable AIcited by 16
- 2022Inferring Sensitive Attributes from Model Explanationscited by 15
- 2023Impact Of Explainable AI On Cognitive Load: Insights From An Empirical Studycited by 15
- 2024Understanding Visual Feature Reliance through the Lens of Complexitycited by 15
- 2021Bayesian Persuasion for Algorithmic Recoursecited by 14
- 2023Stability Guarantees for Feature Attributions with Multiplicative Smoothingcited by 14
- 2023Robustness Implies Fairness in Causal Algorithmic Recoursecited by 12
- 2025Explanation-Driven Counterfactual Testing for Faithfulness in Vision-Language Model Explanationscited by 12
- 2023Achieving Diversity in Counterfactual Explanations: a Review and Discussioncited by 11
- 2021When and How to Fool Explainable Models (and Humans) with Adversarial Examplescited by 10
- 2021Low-Cost Algorithmic Recourse for Users With Uncertain Cost Functionscited by 10
- 2025Can LLMs Explain Themselves Counterfactually?cited by 10
- 2022Global Counterfactual Explanations: Investigations, Implementations and Improvementscited by 9
- 2022"Explain it in the Same Way!" -- Model-Agnostic Group Fairness of Counterfactual Explanationscited by 9
- 2023GAM Coach: Towards Interactive and User-centered Algorithmic Recoursecited by 9
- 2023Explaining Groups of Instances Counterfactually for XAI: A Use Case, Algorithm and User Study for Group-Counterfactualscited by 9
- 2024Utilizing Human Behavior Modeling to Manipulate Explanations in AI-Assisted Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Scarycited by 9
- 2022Interpretability Guarantees with Merlin-Arthur Classifierscited by 8
- 2024Time Can Invalidate Algorithmic Recoursecited by 8
- 2024Feature Responsiveness Scores: Model-Agnostic Explanations for Recoursecited by 8
- 2023Manipulation Risks in Explainable AI: The Implications of the Disagreement Problemcited by 7
- 2024Interval Abstractions for Robust Counterfactual Explanationscited by 7
- 2022FASTER-CE: Fast, Sparse, Transparent, and Robust Counterfactual Explanationscited by 6
- 2023Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Counterfactual Estimationcited by 6
- 2023Counterfactuals of Counterfactuals: a back-translation-inspired approach to analyse counterfactual editorscited by 6
- 2023Flexible and Robust Counterfactual Explanations with Minimal Satisfiable Perturbationscited by 6
50 most cited of 113 All 113 (JSON)
- 2026Algorithmic Recourse Under Competition30 Sep 2026
- 2026EDCT-Bench: Uncovering Faithfulness Gaps in VLMs via Explanation-Driven Counterfactual Testing16 Sep 2026
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- 2026Taking the Whys Seriously: Limitations of Counterfactual Explanations in Justification and Recourse31 Aug 2026
- 2026From Student Risk Prediction to SC2R: Semantics-Constrained Counterfactual Recourse for Educational Decision Support18 Aug 2026
- 2026Structuring Sparsity: Block-Sparse Featurizers Capture Visual Concept Manifolds23 Jun 2026
- 2026Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST17 Jun 2026
- 2026We Need Explanation Cards to Connect Explanation Algorithms to the Real World15 Jun 2026
- 2026When Interpretability Is Unequally Distributed: Fairness in Hybrid Interpretable Models27 May 2026
- 2026Analyzing Fairness of Neural Network Prediction via Counterfactual Dataset Generation11 Feb 2026
- 2026Structure-Aware Robust Counterfactual Explanations via Conditional Gaussian Network Classifiers8 Feb 2026
- 2026ExplainerPFN: Towards tabular foundation models for model-free zero-shot feature importance estimations30 Jan 2026
38 more
- 2026GNN Explanations that do not Explain and How to find Them28 Jan 2026
- 2026Fair Recourse for All: Ensuring Individual and Group Fairness in Counterfactual Explanations28 Jan 2026
- 2026The Impact of Machine Learning Uncertainty on the Robustness of Counterfactual Explanations20 Jan 2026
- 2025Back to the Baseline: Examining Baseline Effects on Explainability Metrics12 Dec 2025
- 2025When LRP Diverges from Leave-One-Out in Transformers21 Oct 2025
- 2025Explanation-Driven Counterfactual Testing for Faithfulness in Vision-Language Model Explanations27 Sep 2025
- 2025Optimal Robust Recourse with Lp-Bounded Model Change25 Sep 2025
- 2025Explainability of Algorithms19 Aug 2025
- 2025Informative Post-Hoc Explanations Only Exist for Simple Functions15 Aug 2025
- 2025A New Approach to Backtracking Counterfactual Explanations: A Unified Causal Framework for Efficient Model Interpretability5 May 2025
- 2025Explanations as Bias Detectors: A Critical Study of Local Post-hoc XAI Methods for Fairness Exploration1 May 2025
- 2025When Counterfactual Reasoning Fails: Chaos and Real-World Complexity31 Mar 2025
- 2025Algebraic Adversarial Attacks on Explainability Models16 Mar 2025
- 2025Can LLMs Explain Themselves Counterfactually?25 Feb 2025
- 2025Archetypal SAE: Adaptive and Stable Dictionary Learning for Concept Extraction in Large Vision Models18 Feb 2025
- 2025ExpProof : Operationalizing Explanations for Confidential Models with ZKPs6 Feb 2025
- 2025Robust Counterfactual Explanations under Model Multiplicity Using Multi-Objective Optimization10 Jan 2025
- 2024Utilizing Human Behavior Modeling to Manipulate Explanations in AI-Assisted Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Scary2 Nov 2024
- 2024Feature Responsiveness Scores: Model-Agnostic Explanations for Recourse29 Oct 2024
- 2024FACEGroup: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations for Group Fairness29 Oct 2024
- 2024S-CFE: Simple Counterfactual Explanations21 Oct 2024
- 2024Rethinking Distance Metrics for Counterfactual Explainability18 Oct 2024
- 2024Time Can Invalidate Algorithmic Recourse10 Oct 2024
- 2024Understanding with toy surrogate models in machine learning8 Oct 2024
- 2024Perfect Counterfactuals in Imperfect Worlds: Modelling Noisy Implementation of Actions in Sequential Algorithmic Recourse3 Oct 2024
- 2024Learning-Augmented Robust Algorithmic Recourse2 Oct 2024
- 2024Review of Explainable Graph-Based Recommender Systems31 Jul 2024
- 2024AIDE: Antithetical, Intent-based, and Diverse Example-Based Explanations22 Jul 2024
- 2024CE-QArg: Counterfactual Explanations for Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (Technical Report)11 Jul 2024
- 2024Rigorous Probabilistic Guarantees for Robust Counterfactual Explanations10 Jul 2024
- 2024Understanding Visual Feature Reliance through the Lens of Complexity8 Jul 2024
- 2024Graph Neural Network Explanations are Fragile5 Jun 2024
- 2024Towards Understanding the Influence of Training Samples on Explanations5 Jun 2024
- 2024Mapping the Potential of Explainable AI for Fairness Along the AI Lifecycle29 Apr 2024
- 2024Why You Should Not Trust Interpretations in Machine Learning: Adversarial Attacks on Partial Dependence Plots29 Apr 2024
- 2024SIDEs: Separating Idealization from Deceptive Explanations in xAI25 Apr 2024
- 2024Interval Abstractions for Robust Counterfactual Explanations21 Apr 2024
- 2024Forward Learning for Gradient-based Black-box Saliency Map Generation22 Mar 2024
50 newest of 113 All 113 (JSON)
- 2022On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recoursecited by 32
- 2024The Effect of Data Poisoning on Counterfactual Explanationscited by 3
- 2024The Effect of Data Poisoning on Counterfactual Explanations13 Feb 2024
- 2022On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse10 Nov 2022
- 2023Latent Diffusion Counterfactual Explanationscited by 17
- 2023Latent Diffusion Counterfactual Explanations10 Oct 2023
- 2023Faithfulness Tests for Natural Language Explanationscited by 107
- 2025Archetypal SAE: Adaptive and Stable Dictionary Learning for Concept Extraction in Large Vision Modelscited by 67
- 2021On the Adversarial Robustness of Causal Algorithmic Recoursecited by 56
- 2022Framework for Evaluating Faithfulness of Local Explanationscited by 55
- 2022Post-Hoc Explanations Fail to Achieve their Purpose in Adversarial Contextscited by 53
- 2023Sequential Integrated Gradients: a simple but effective method for explaining language modelscited by 52
- 2023Adversarial attacks and defenses in explainable artificial intelligence: A surveycited by 47
- 2023Fast Diffusion-Based Counterfactuals for Shortcut Removal and Generationcited by 41
- 2022Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recoursecited by 40
- 2021A Survey on the Robustness of Feature Importance and Counterfactual Explanationscited by 38
- 2022Don't Lie to Me! Robust and Efficient Explainability with Verified Perturbation Analysiscited by 38
- 2022On the Robustness of Sparse Counterfactual Explanations to Adverse Perturbationscited by 32
12 most cited of 106 All 106 (JSON)
- 2026Algorithmic Recourse Under Competition30 Sep 2026
- 2026Explanations-Driven Active Feature Acquisition for Algorithmic Recourse10 Sep 2026
- 2026Taking the Whys Seriously: Limitations of Counterfactual Explanations in Justification and Recourse31 Aug 2026
- 2026From Student Risk Prediction to SC2R: Semantics-Constrained Counterfactual Recourse for Educational Decision Support18 Aug 2026
- 2026Structuring Sparsity: Block-Sparse Featurizers Capture Visual Concept Manifolds23 Jun 2026
- 2026Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST17 Jun 2026
- 2026We Need Explanation Cards to Connect Explanation Algorithms to the Real World15 Jun 2026
- 2026When Interpretability Is Unequally Distributed: Fairness in Hybrid Interpretable Models27 May 2026
- 2026Analyzing Fairness of Neural Network Prediction via Counterfactual Dataset Generation11 Feb 2026
- 2026Structure-Aware Robust Counterfactual Explanations via Conditional Gaussian Network Classifiers8 Feb 2026
- 2026ExplainerPFN: Towards tabular foundation models for model-free zero-shot feature importance estimations30 Jan 2026
- 2026GNN Explanations that do not Explain and How to find Them28 Jan 2026
12 newest of 106 All 106 (JSON)