mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

UniUncer: Unified Dynamic Static Uncertainty for End to End Driving

arXiv 2603.07686 ↗First posted 8 Mar 2026cs.RO cs.CVcited by 2

On the map: End-to-end autonomous driving → End-to-end system architecture

Abstract (arXiv)

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only ~0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in End-to-end system architecture, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving. Builds on 46 of its 49 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Mar 2026.

Builds on

46 of 49 references.

Closest ancestors · 18

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025World4Drive: End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Intention-aware Physical Latent World Model1 Jul
  2. 2025UncAD: Towards Safe End-to-end Autonomous Driving via Online Map Uncertainty17 Apr
  3. 2025End-to-End Driving with Online Trajectory Evaluation via BEV World Model2 Apr
  4. 2025Hydra-MDP++: Advancing End-to-End Driving via Expert-Guided Hydra-Distillation17 Mar
  5. 2025HiP-AD: Hierarchical and Multi-Granularity Planning with Deformable Attention for Autonomous Driving in a Single Decoder11 Mar
  6. 2025DriveTransformer: Unified Transformer for Scalable End-to-End Autonomous Driving7 Mar
  7. 2025Don't Shake the Wheel: Momentum-Aware Planning in End-to-End Autonomous Driving5 Mar
  8. 2024Navigation-Guided Sparse Scene Representation for End-to-End Autonomous Driving26 Sep
  9. 2024NAVSIM: Data-Driven Non-Reactive Autonomous Vehicle Simulation and Benchmarking21 Jun
  10. 2024Enhancing End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Latent World Model12 Jun
  11. 2024Bench2Drive: Towards Multi-Ability Benchmarking of Closed-Loop End-To-End Autonomous Driving6 Jun
  12. 2024SparseDrive: End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Sparse Scene Representation30 May
6 more
  1. 2023Is Ego Status All You Need for Open-Loop End-to-End Autonomous Driving?5 Dec
  2. 2023DriveAdapter: Breaking the Coupling Barrier of Perception and Planning in End-to-End Autonomous Driving1 Aug
  3. 2023Think Twice before Driving: Towards Scalable Decoders for End-to-End Autonomous Driving10 May
  4. 2022ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning15 Jul
  5. 2022Trajectory-guided Control Prediction for End-to-end Autonomous Driving: A Simple yet Strong Baseline16 Jun
  6. 2022TransFuser: Imitation with Transformer-Based Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Driving31 May

Other references · 28

  1. 20233D Gaussian Splatting for Real-Time Radiance Field Renderingcited by 6,141
  2. 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,485
  3. 2017CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulatorcited by 2,431
  4. 2017What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?cited by 2,335
  5. 2022Planning-oriented Autonomous Drivingcited by 1,068
  6. 2023VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Drivingcited by 613
  7. 2024DiffusionDrive: Truncated Diffusion Model for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 324
  8. 2024GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 225
  9. 2023Scene as Occupancycited by 208
  10. 2020On the uncertainty of self-supervised monocular depth estimationcited by 182
  11. 2025ORION: A Holistic End-to-End Autonomous Driving Framework by Vision-Language Instructed Action Generationcited by 177
  12. 2025Pseudo-Simulation for Autonomous Drivingcited by 141
16 more
  1. 2019LaserNet: An Efficient Probabilistic 3D Object Detector for Autonomous Drivingcited by 133
  2. 2025GoalFlow: Goal-Driven Flow Matching for Multimodal Trajectories Generation in End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 117
  3. 2018Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networkscited by 77
  4. 2025DiffVLA: Vision-Language Guided Diffusion Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 64
  5. 2025Impromptu VLA: Open Weights and Open Data for Driving Vision-Language-Action Modelscited by 60
  6. 2025Bridging Past and Future: End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Historical Prediction and Planningcited by 48
  7. 2024TOD3Cap: Towards 3D Dense Captioning in Outdoor Scenescited by 40
  8. 2025DiST-4D: Disentangled Spatiotemporal Diffusion with Metric Depth for 4D Driving Scene Generationcited by 39
  9. 2023PPAD: Iterative Interactions of Prediction and Planning for End-to-end Autonomous Drivingcited by 33
  10. 2024Hint-AD: Holistically Aligned Interpretability in End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 33
  11. 2024Producing and Leveraging Online Map Uncertainty in Trajectory Predictioncited by 32
  12. 2025AVD2: Accident Video Diffusion for Accident Video Descriptioncited by 20
  13. 2025Chameleon: Fast-slow Neuro-symbolic Lane Topology Extractioncited by 16
  14. 2025ReAL-AD: Towards Human-Like Reasoning in End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 15
  15. 2025Reusing Attention for One-stage Lane Topology Understandingcited by 9
  16. 2025Delving into Mapping Uncertainty for Mapless Trajectory Predictioncited by 6

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025SUPER-AD: Semantic Uncertainty-aware Planning for End-to-End Robust Autonomous Driving
  2. 2023Uncertainty-Aware Decision Transformer for Stochastic Driving Environments
  3. 2026CRUISE: Vision-Language Model-Guided Uncertainty-Aware Cross-Modal Sensor Fusion for Robust Autonomous Driving
  4. 2026Bridging Predictive Uncertainty and Safe Action: Sample-Conditioned Differentiable Planning for Autonomous Driving
  5. 2025Using Ensemble Diffusion to Estimate Uncertainty for End-to-End Autonomous Driving
  6. 2026MORPH-U: Multi-Objective Resilient Motion Planning for V2X-Enabled Autonomous Driving in High-Uncertainty Environments via Simulation
  7. 2025An Uncertainty-Weighted Decision Transformer for Navigation in Dense, Complex Driving Scenarios
  8. 2026SafeDrive: Fine-Grained Safety Reasoning for End-to-End Driving in a Sparse World