mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

arXiv 2212.12794 ↗First posted 24 Dec 2022cs.LG physics.ao-phcited by 267

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Abstract (arXiv)

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Key facts. Cited by 267 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 34 of its 54 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Dec 2022.

Builds on

34 of 54 references.

References · 34

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22 more
  1. 2020Lagrangian Neural Networkscited by 398
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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 72; 2024: 90; 2025: 62; 2026: 43.

267 papers.

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  1. 2023ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climatecited by 337
  2. 2023Geometry-Informed Neural Operator for Large-Scale 3D PDEscited by 303
  3. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 241
  4. 2023WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather modelscited by 236
  5. 2023PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solverscited by 216
  6. 2023GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weathercited by 177
  7. 2023FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Leadcited by 175
  8. 2024The Well: a Large-Scale Collection of Diverse Physics Simulations for Machine Learningcited by 145
  9. 2023Scalable Transformer for PDE Surrogate Modelingcited by 128
  10. 2023An Expert's Guide to Training Physics-informed Neural Networkscited by 126
  11. 2023Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlookcited by 110
  12. 2023DYffusion: A Dynamics-informed Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Forecastingcited by 109
38 more
  1. 2023PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Modelscited by 98
  2. 2023Score-based Data Assimilationcited by 96
  3. 2024ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEscited by 82
  4. 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
  5. 2023Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observationscited by 72
  6. 2024PirateNets: Physics-informed Deep Learning with Residual Adaptive Networkscited by 72
  7. 20253D and 4D World Modeling: A Surveycited by 67
  8. 2023Towards Stability of Autoregressive Neural Operatorscited by 59
  9. 2023ACE: A fast, skillful learned global atmospheric model for climate predictioncited by 56
  10. 2023ClimateLearn: Benchmarking Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Modelingcited by 47
  11. 2024Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for Satellite Image Classification in Remote Sensingcited by 47
  12. 2024ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Predictioncited by 43
  13. 2023AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learningcited by 40
  14. 2023Geometric Clifford Algebra Networkscited by 38
  15. 2025Walrus: A Cross-Domain Foundation Model for Continuum Dynamicscited by 36
  16. 2023Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Surveycited by 34
  17. 2024On the Benefits of Memory for Modeling Time-Dependent PDEscited by 31
  18. 2024Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climatecited by 31
  19. 2024DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systemscited by 30
  20. 2023W-MAE: Pre-trained weather model with masked autoencoder for multi-variable weather forecastingcited by 29
  21. 2023Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Meshcited by 28
  22. 2024Foundation Models for the Electric Power Gridcited by 28
  23. 2024Recent Advances on Machine Learning for Computational Fluid Dynamics: A Surveycited by 28
  24. 2025Generative Latent Neural PDE Solver using Flow Matchingcited by 28
  25. 2023AI-GOMS: Large AI-Driven Global Ocean Modeling Systemcited by 27
  26. 2024Universal Physics Transformers: A Framework For Efficiently Scaling Neural Operatorscited by 27
  27. 2024Differentiability in Unrolled Training of Neural Physics Simulators on Transient Dynamicscited by 27
  28. 2024Generative Data Assimilation of Sparse Weather Station Observations at Kilometer Scalescited by 27
  29. 2024Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather modelscited by 26
  30. 2024Hierarchical Classification Auxiliary Network for Time Series Forecastingcited by 26
  31. 2023ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learningcited by 25
  32. 2023Dynamical Tests of a Deep-Learning Weather Prediction Modelcited by 24
  33. 2023OceanNet: A principled neural operator-based digital twin for regional oceanscited by 24
  34. 2025Foundation Models for Spatio-Temporal Data Science: A Tutorial and Surveycited by 24
  35. 2023FengWu-4DVar: Coupling the Data-driven Weather Forecasting Model with 4D Variational Assimilationcited by 23
  36. 2023Graph-based Neural Weather Prediction for Limited Area Modelingcited by 22
  37. 2023FuXi-Extreme: Improving extreme rainfall and wind forecasts with diffusion modelcited by 22
  38. 2023AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementationcited by 21

50 most cited of 267 All 267 (JSON)