mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models

arXiv 2308.15560 ↗First posted 29 Aug 2023physics.ao-ph cs.AIcited by 236

Not on the map. Why?

Cited by 22 in Diffusion models, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Key facts. Cited by 236 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 65 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Aug 2023.

Builds on

21 of 65 references.

References · 21

  1. 2018GLUE: A Multi-Task Benchmark and Analysis Platform for Natural Language Understandingcited by 4,899
  2. 2020Learning Mesh-Based Simulation with Graph Networkscited by 868
  3. 2022FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 776
  4. 2023ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climatecited by 337
  5. 2020WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecastingcited by 275
  6. 2022GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecastingcited by 267
  7. 2021Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators: Efficient Token Mixers for Transformerscited by 248
  8. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 241
  9. 2023Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Spherecited by 233
  10. 2023FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Leadcited by 175
  11. 2022Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networkscited by 168
  12. 2020Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed spherecited by 96
9 more
  1. 2018Neural networks for post-processing ensemble weather forecastscited by 95
  2. 2023Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observationscited by 72
  3. 2020Deep Learning for Post-Processing Ensemble Weather Forecastscited by 52
  4. 2023SwinRDM: Integrate SwinRNN with Diffusion Model towards High-Resolution and High-Quality Weather Forecastingcited by 32
  5. 2023Scaling Spherical CNNscited by 21
  6. 2021Combining distribution-based neural networks to predict weather forecast probabilitiescited by 18
  7. 2022WeatherBench Probability: A benchmark dataset for probabilistic medium-range weather forecasting along with deep learning baseline modelscited by 17
  8. 2022ENS-10: A Dataset For Post-Processing Ensemble Weather Forecastscited by 13
  9. 2021Self-Attentive Ensemble Transformer: Representing Ensemble Interactions in Neural Networks for Earth System Modelscited by 7

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 10; 2024: 47; 2025: 82; 2026: 97.

236 papers.

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  1. 2023Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climatecited by 239
  2. 2023GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weathercited by 177
  3. 2023Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecastingcited by 110
  4. 2024ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEscited by 82
  5. 2025FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scalecited by 62
  6. 2024DiffDA: a Diffusion Model for Weather-scale Data Assimilationcited by 61
  7. 2025MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answeringcited by 55
  8. 2024ACE2: Accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responsescited by 54
  9. 2024ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Predictioncited by 43
  10. 2023Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Surveycited by 34
  11. 2025OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecastingcited by 34
  12. 2024On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Modelscited by 33
38 more
  1. 2024Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climatecited by 31
  2. 2024FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecastingcited by 30
  3. 2024Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networkscited by 30
  4. 2023Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Meshcited by 28
  5. 2025Fixing the Double Penalty in Data-Driven Weather Forecasting Through a Modified Spherical Harmonic Loss Functioncited by 28
  6. 2024Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather modelscited by 26
  7. 2024Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?cited by 26
  8. 2023ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learningcited by 25
  9. 2024A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Modelscited by 25
  10. 2023Graph-based Neural Weather Prediction for Limited Area Modelingcited by 22
  11. 2023FuXi-Extreme: Improving extreme rainfall and wind forecasts with diffusion modelcited by 22
  12. 2023Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting systemcited by 21
  13. 2024Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Modelcited by 21
  14. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  15. 2025Appa: Bending Weather Dynamics with Latent Diffusion Models for Global Data Assimilationcited by 20
  16. 2024Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 18
  17. 2025Probabilistic neural operators for functional uncertainty quantificationcited by 18
  18. 2024ORBIT: Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictabilitycited by 17
  19. 2025Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Surveycited by 16
  20. 2024Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Predictioncited by 15
  21. 2023WeatherGNN: Exploiting Meteo- and Spatial-Dependencies for Local Numerical Weather Prediction Bias-Correctioncited by 14
  22. 2024Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Eventscited by 14
  23. 2025CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired Transformercited by 14
  24. 2025Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremescited by 14
  25. 2024FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecastingcited by 13
  26. 2025Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamicscited by 13
  27. 2025Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecastingcited by 13
  28. 2025OmniCast: A Masked Latent Diffusion Model for Weather Forecasting Across Time Scalescited by 12
  29. 2026U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecastercited by 12
  30. 2024Uncertainty Quantification of Surrogate Models using Conformal Predictioncited by 11
  31. 2024FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applicationscited by 11
  32. 2026Recursive self-improvement of AI research agentscited by 11
  33. 2025Lossy Neural Compression for Geospatial Analytics: A Reviewcited by 10
  34. 2025ZAPBench: A Benchmark for Whole-Brain Activity Prediction in Zebrafishcited by 10
  35. 2025Zephyrus: An Agentic Framework for Weather Sciencecited by 10
  36. 2025ClimateLLM: Efficient Weather Forecasting via Frequency-Aware Large Language Modelscited by 9
  37. 2026Scaling Laws of Global Weather Modelscited by 9
  38. 2024EWMoE: An effective model for global weather forecasting with mixture-of-expertscited by 8

50 most cited of 236 All 236 (JSON)