mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

arXiv 2306.12873 ↗First posted 22 Jun 2023physics.ao-ph cs.AI cs.LGcited by 241

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Abstract (arXiv)

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

Key facts. Cited by 241 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 56 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Jun 2023.

Builds on

28 of 56 references.

References · 28

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16 more
  1. 2021Swin Transformer V2: Scaling Up Capacity and Resolutioncited by 1,228
  2. 2021Cascaded Diffusion Models for High Fidelity Image Generationcited by 1,163
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  16. 2022WeatherBench Probability: A benchmark dataset for probabilistic medium-range weather forecasting along with deep learning baseline modelscited by 17

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Citing papers per year: 2023: 14; 2024: 72; 2025: 78; 2026: 77.

241 papers.

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  1. 2023WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather modelscited by 236
  2. 2023GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weathercited by 177
  3. 2023Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscalingcited by 110
  4. 2023Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecastingcited by 110
  5. 2024A Comprehensive Survey of Scientific Large Language Models and Their Applications in Scientific Discoverycited by 96
  6. 2025FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scalecited by 62
  7. 2024ACE2: Accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responsescited by 54
  8. 2023AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learningcited by 40
  9. 2023Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Surveycited by 34
  10. 2025OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecastingcited by 34
  11. 2024On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Modelscited by 33
  12. 2024FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecastingcited by 30
38 more
  1. 2024Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion modelscited by 30
  2. 2024Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather modelscited by 26
  3. 2024Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?cited by 26
  4. 2023ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learningcited by 25
  5. 2024A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Modelscited by 25
  6. 2024Generative Diffusion-based Downscaling for Climatecited by 25
  7. 2023FengWu-4DVar: Coupling the Data-driven Weather Forecasting Model with 4D Variational Assimilationcited by 23
  8. 2024Generalizing Weather Forecast to Fine-grained Temporal Scales via Physics-AI Hybrid Modelingcited by 23
  9. 2023FuXi-Extreme: Improving extreme rainfall and wind forecasts with diffusion modelcited by 22
  10. 2024WeatherQA: Can Multimodal Language Models Reason about Severe Weather?cited by 22
  11. 2023Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting systemcited by 21
  12. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  13. 2024FuXi Weather: A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weathercited by 21
  14. 2024Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-gridcited by 21
  15. 2025Appa: Bending Weather Dynamics with Latent Diffusion Models for Global Data Assimilationcited by 20
  16. 2024ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecastcited by 19
  17. 2024Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observationscited by 18
  18. 2024Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 18
  19. 2025Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Surveycited by 16
  20. 2024Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Predictioncited by 15
  21. 2025SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulatorscited by 15
  22. 2023WeatherGNN: Exploiting Meteo- and Spatial-Dependencies for Local Numerical Weather Prediction Bias-Correctioncited by 14
  23. 2024Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Eventscited by 14
  24. 2025CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired Transformercited by 14
  25. 2025Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremescited by 14
  26. 2024FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecastingcited by 13
  27. 2025A Survey of Large Language Model-Powered Spatial Intelligence Across Scales: Advances in Embodied Agents, Smart Cities, and Earth Sciencecited by 12
  28. 2025NeuralOM: Neural Ocean Model for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Simulationcited by 12
  29. 2025OmniCast: A Masked Latent Diffusion Model for Weather Forecasting Across Time Scalescited by 12
  30. 2026U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecastercited by 12
  31. 2024FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applicationscited by 11
  32. 2025Diffusion-LAM: Probabilistic Limited Area Weather Forecasting with Diffusioncited by 11
  33. 2024Weather Prediction with Diffusion Guided by Realistic Forecast Processescited by 10
  34. 2024Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNetcited by 10
  35. 2024KARINA: An Efficient Deep Learning Model for Global Weather Forecastcited by 9
  36. 2025AtmosSci-Bench: Evaluating the Recent Advance of Large Language Model for Atmospheric Sciencecited by 9
  37. 2025ClimateLLM: Efficient Weather Forecasting via Frequency-Aware Large Language Modelscited by 9
  38. 2026Scaling Laws of Global Weather Modelscited by 9

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