mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

ACE: A fast, skillful learned global atmospheric model for climate prediction

arXiv 2310.02074 ↗First posted 3 Oct 2023physics.ao-ph cs.LGcited by 53

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Abstract (arXiv)

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

Key facts. Cited by 53 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 25 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Oct 2023.

Builds on

9 of 25 references.

References · 9

  1. 2022FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 748
  2. 2022Fourier Neural Operator with Learned Deformations for PDEs on General Geometriescited by 416
  3. 2023ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climatecited by 325
  4. 2022GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecastingcited by 261
  5. 2023Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Spherecited by 225
  6. 2023FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Leadcited by 170
  7. 2022Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networkscited by 165
  8. 2020Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed spherecited by 95
  9. 2021Climate-Invariant Machine Learningcited by 24

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 19; 2025: 20; 2026: 13.

53 papers.

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  1. 2023Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climatecited by 232
  2. 2025FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scalecited by 56
  3. 2024ACE2: Accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responsescited by 53
  4. 2024On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Modelscited by 31
  5. 2024LUCIE: A Lightweight Uncoupled ClImate Emulator with long-term stability and physical consistency for O(1000)-member ensemblescited by 30
  6. 2024DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systemscited by 29
  7. 2024Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?cited by 26
  8. 2024Samudra: An AI Global Ocean Emulator for Climatecited by 26
  9. 2024Generative Diffusion-based Downscaling for Climatecited by 25
  10. 2024WeatherQA: Can Multimodal Language Models Reason about Severe Weather?cited by 21
  11. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  12. 2025Thermalizer: Stable autoregressive neural emulation of spatiotemporal chaoscited by 21
38 more
  1. 2024Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Modelcited by 20
  2. 2024Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 17
  3. 2025SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulatorscited by 15
  4. 2026Demystifying Data-Driven Probabilistic Medium-Range Weather Forecastingcited by 12
  5. 2024The impact of internal variability on benchmarking deep learning climate emulatorscited by 11
  6. 2025Binned Spectral Power Loss for Improved Prediction of Chaotic Systemscited by 10
  7. 2024DiffObs: Generative Diffusion for Global Forecasting of Satellite Observationscited by 9
  8. 2025Hierarchical Implicit Neural Emulatorscited by 9
  9. 2025Probing forced responses and causality in data-driven climate emulators: conceptual limitations and the role of reduced-order modelscited by 6
  10. 2026Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecastingcited by 6
  11. 2024Improving Global Weather and Ocean Wave Forecast with Large Artificial Intelligence Modelscited by 5
  12. 2024A probabilistic framework for learning non-intrusive corrections to long-time climate simulations from short-time training datacited by 5
  13. 2025Geometric and Physical Constraints Synergistically Enhance Neural PDE Surrogatescited by 5
  14. 2025PEAR: Equal Area Weather Forecasting on the Spherecited by 4
  15. 2025GEN2: A Generative Prediction-Correction Framework for Long-time Emulations of Spatially-Resolved Climate Extremescited by 4
  16. 2025Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flow Matching for Climate Emulationcited by 4
  17. 2024Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT)cited by 3
  18. 2025LUCIE-3D: A three-dimensional climate emulator for forced responsescited by 3
  19. 2025Score-based generative emulation of impact-relevant Earth system model outputscited by 3
  20. 2026Localized, High-resolution Geographic Representations with Slepian Functionscited by 3
  21. 2025Generating realistic global precipitation fields from modelled atmospheric circulationcited by 2
  22. 2025MoWE : A Mixture of Weather Expertscited by 2
  23. 2024Enforcing Equity in Neural Climate Emulatorscited by 1
  24. 2024Divide And Conquer: Learning Chaotic Dynamical Systems With Multistep Penalty Neural Ordinary Differential Equationscited by 1
  25. 2025FuXi-RTM: A Physics-Guided Prediction Framework with Radiative Transfer Modelingcited by 1
  26. 2025Exploring Design Choices for Autoregressive Deep Learning Climate Modelscited by 1
  27. 2025LatticeVision: Image to Image Networks for Modeling Non-Stationary Spatial Datacited by 1
  28. 2025The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine-Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warmingcited by 1
  29. 2025Efficient probabilistic surrogate modeling techniques for partially-observed large-scale dynamical systemscited by 1
  30. 2026Examining Fast Radiatively Driven Responses Using Machine-Learning Weather Emulatorscited by 1
  31. 2026Samudra 2: Scaling Ocean Emulators across Resolutionscited by 1
  32. 2024A-UTE: Advection Informed, Uncertainty Aware Temperature Emulatorcited by 0
  33. 2025Investigating the use of terrain-following coordinates in AI-driven precipitation forecastscited by 0
  34. 2026Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning-Physics Global Atmosphere Modelcited by 0
  35. 2026Assessing Emulator Design and Training for Modal Aerosol Microphysics Parameterizations in E3SMv2cited by 0
  36. 2026Rescene: band-limited stochastic forcing turns a frozen neural weather operator into a climate emulatorcited by 0
  37. 2026Neptune: An AI model for Global Ocean Subseasonal Predictioncited by 0
  38. 2026CasEm: A Cascade Architecture for Long-Horizon Neural Emulationcited by 0

50 most cited of 53 All 53 (JSON)