mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather

arXiv 2312.15796 ↗First posted 25 Dec 2023cs.LG physics.ao-phcited by 169

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Cited by 47 in Diffusion models, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

Key facts. Cited by 169 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 33 of its 65 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Dec 2023.

Builds on

33 of 65 references.

References · 33

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
  3. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 8,964
  4. 2015Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamicscited by 7,005
  5. 2022Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Modelscited by 2,994
  6. 2022Imagen Video: High Definition Video Generation with Diffusion Modelscited by 1,765
  7. 2023Align your Latents: High-Resolution Video Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Modelscited by 1,465
  8. 2022DPM-Solver++: Fast Solver for Guided Sampling of Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 924
  9. 2022FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 748
  10. 2021Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecastingcited by 332
  11. 2021Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radarcited by 308
  12. 2022Flexible Diffusion Modeling of Long Videoscited by 294
21 more
  1. 2020WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecastingcited by 272
  2. 2022GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecastingcited by 261
  3. 2022Diffusion Probabilistic Modeling for Video Generationcited by 237
  4. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 237
  5. 2023Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climatecited by 232
  6. 2023WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather modelscited by 227
  7. 2023TPU v4: An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddingscited by 198
  8. 2021Conditional Image Generation with Score-Based Diffusion Modelscited by 195
  9. 2022FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 188
  10. 2023FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Leadcited by 170
  11. 2022Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networkscited by 165
  12. 2022Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecastcited by 164
  13. 2019Transformers without Tears: Improving the Normalization of Self-Attentioncited by 153
  14. 2023Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecastingcited by 106
  15. 2021AdaSpeech: Adaptive Text to Speech for Custom Voicecited by 98
  16. 2023PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Modelscited by 96
  17. 2023DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Modelscited by 81
  18. 2023Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observationscited by 70
  19. 2023SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Modelscited by 26
  20. 2023Precipitation nowcasting with generative diffusion modelscited by 22
  21. 2023Towards Unifying Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Learningcited by 20

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 61; 2025: 60; 2026: 48.

169 papers.

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  1. 2024Rolling Diffusion Modelscited by 102
  2. 2025How to build a consistency model: Learning flow maps via self-distillationcited by 96
  3. 2024DiffDA: a Diffusion Model for Weather-scale Data Assimilationcited by 59
  4. 2024ACE2: Accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responsescited by 53
  5. 2024Meta Flow Matching: Integrating Vector Fields on the Wasserstein Manifoldcited by 41
  6. 2025Guided Diffusion Sampling on Function Spaces with Applications to PDEscited by 33
  7. 2024Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modelingcited by 32
  8. 2024On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Modelscited by 31
  9. 2024FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecastingcited by 30
  10. 2024LUCIE: A Lightweight Uncoupled ClImate Emulator with long-term stability and physical consistency for O(1000)-member ensemblescited by 30
  11. 2025OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecastingcited by 30
  12. 2024Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networkscited by 29
38 more
  1. 2024Wavelet Diffusion Neural Operatorcited by 28
  2. 2025Generative Latent Neural PDE Solver using Flow Matchingcited by 28
  3. 2024Generative Data Assimilation of Sparse Weather Station Observations at Kilometer Scalescited by 27
  4. 2024Foundation Models for the Electric Power Gridcited by 27
  5. 2024Fast, Scale-Adaptive, and Uncertainty-Aware Downscaling of Earth System Model Fields with Generative Machine Learningcited by 26
  6. 2024Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?cited by 26
  7. 2024Samudra: An AI Global Ocean Emulator for Climatecited by 26
  8. 2024A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Modelscited by 25
  9. 2024Generative Diffusion-based Downscaling for Climatecited by 25
  10. 2024Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather modelscited by 24
  11. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  12. 2025Thermalizer: Stable autoregressive neural emulation of spatiotemporal chaoscited by 21
  13. 2024Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-gridcited by 20
  14. 2024Data driven weather forecasts trained and initialised directly from observationscited by 19
  15. 2024Dynamical-generative downscaling of climate model ensemblescited by 19
  16. 2024DiffPhyCon: A Generative Approach to Control Complex Physical Systemscited by 17
  17. 2024Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 17
  18. 2024Generative Learning of the Solution of Parametric Partial Differential Equations Using Guided Diffusion Models and Virtual Observationscited by 16
  19. 2024DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models with 3D Diffusion Modelscited by 15
  20. 2025Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Surveycited by 15
  21. 2024Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Eventscited by 14
  22. 2024Deep learning for precipitation nowcasting: A survey from the perspective of time series forecastingcited by 14
  23. 2024Zero-Shot Uncertainty Quantification using Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 14
  24. 2024FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecastingcited by 13
  25. 2025FlowDAS: A Stochastic Interpolant-based Framework for Data Assimilationcited by 13
  26. 2025Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecastingcited by 13
  27. 2024Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 12
  28. 2026Demystifying Data-Driven Probabilistic Medium-Range Weather Forecastingcited by 12
  29. 2024Uncertainty Quantification of Surrogate Models using Conformal Predictioncited by 11
  30. 2025OmniCast: A Masked Latent Diffusion Model for Weather Forecasting Across Time Scalescited by 11
  31. 2024Weather Prediction with Diffusion Guided by Realistic Forecast Processescited by 10
  32. 2025A Probabilistic Approach to Wildfire Spread Prediction Using a Denoising Diffusion Surrogate Modelcited by 10
  33. 2024DiffObs: Generative Diffusion for Global Forecasting of Satellite Observationscited by 9
  34. 2025ClimateLLM: Efficient Weather Forecasting via Frequency-Aware Large Language Modelscited by 9
  35. 2025Hierarchical Implicit Neural Emulatorscited by 9
  36. 2024CL-DiffPhyCon: Closed-loop Diffusion Control of Complex Physical Systemscited by 8
  37. 2024Exploring the design space of deep-learning-based weather forecasting systemscited by 8
  38. 2024Predicting Change, Not States: An Alternate Framework for Neural PDE Surrogatescited by 8

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