mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts

arXiv 2302.00170 ↗First posted 1 Feb 2023cs.LG physics.ao-phcited by 17

On the map: Diffusion models → Flow matching, time series and science

Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting future weather and climate is inherently difficult. Machine learning offers new approaches to increase the accuracy and computational efficiency of forecasts, but current methods are unable to accurately model uncertainty in high-dimensional predictions. Score-based diffusion models offer a new approach to modeling probability distributions over many dependent variables, and in this work, we demonstrate how they provide probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate variables at unprecedented resolution, speed, and accuracy. We apply the technique to day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts by generating many samples from a diffusion model trained to super-resolve coarse-resolution numerical weather predictions to high-resolution weather satellite observations.

Key facts. Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 17 of its 30 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 1 Feb 2023.

Builds on

17 of 30 references.

References · 17

  1. 2015U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentationcited by 19,604
  2. 2022Photorealistic Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Deep Language Understandingcited by 6,322
  3. 2021Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generationcited by 4,276
  4. 2021GLIDE: Towards Photorealistic Image Generation and Editing with Text-Guided Diffusion Modelscited by 3,595
  5. 2015Variational Inference with Normalizing Flowscited by 2,161
  6. 2018Glow: Generative Flow with Invertible 1x1 Convolutionscited by 1,539
  7. 2021Cascaded Diffusion Models for High Fidelity Image Generationcited by 1,155
  8. 2014NICE: Non-linear Independent Components Estimationcited by 1,052
  9. 2022FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 748
  10. 2021Maximum Likelihood Training of Score-Based Diffusion Modelscited by 670
  11. 2021Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radarcited by 308
  12. 2022GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecastingcited by 261
5 more
  1. 2022Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecastcited by 164
  2. 2020MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecastingcited by 128
  3. 2016Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimationcited by 94
  4. 2018Deep Photovoltaic Nowcastingcited by 21
  5. 2020Cloud Cover Nowcasting with Deep Learningcited by 4

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 9; 2024: 4; 2025: 2; 2026: 2.

17 papers.

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  1. 2023Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscalingcited by 103
  2. 2023PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Modelscited by 96
  3. 2024A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Datacited by 66
  4. 2023On the Design Fundamentals of Diffusion Models: A Surveycited by 59
  5. 2023DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcastingcited by 57
  6. 2023Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Surveycited by 32
  7. 2024Diffusion Models Meet Remote Sensing: Principles, Methods, and Perspectivescited by 27
  8. 2023Precipitation nowcasting with generative diffusion modelscited by 22
  9. 2023Precipitation Downscaling with Spatiotemporal Video Diffusioncited by 16
  10. 2024DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models with 3D Diffusion Modelscited by 15
  11. 2023Forecasting Tropical Cyclones with Cascaded Diffusion Modelscited by 10
  12. 2025DiffScale: Continuous Downscaling and Bias Correction of Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts using Diffusion Modelscited by 3
5 more
  1. 2025How to use score-based diffusion in earth system science: A satellite nowcasting examplecited by 3
  2. 2024DaYu: Data-Driven Model for Geostationary Satellite Observed Cloud Images Forecastingcited by 1
  3. 2023Multi-Modal Learning-based Reconstruction of High-Resolution Spatial Wind Speed Fieldscited by 0
  4. 2026Hybrid Quantum-Classical Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Meteorological Downscalingcited by 0
  5. 2026Apeliotes: A Diffusion-Based Modeling Framework for km-scale Multi-Level Atmospheric Fieldscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2026Universal Diffusion-Based Probabilistic Downscaling
  2. 2026Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
  3. 2024Enhancing Weather Predictions: Super-Resolution via Deep Diffusion Models
  4. 2026Inpainting-Style Conditional Diffusion for Multivariable Time Series Forecasting
  5. 2024Weather Prediction with Diffusion Guided by Realistic Forecast Processes
  6. 2025Data-Efficient Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion Models
  7. 2026PuYun-LDM: A Latent Diffusion Model for High-Resolution Ensemble Weather Forecasts
  8. 2025Multimodal Atmospheric Super-Resolution With Deep Generative Models