Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning
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Abstract (arXiv)
Fairness in machine learning has predominantly been studied in static classification settings without concern for how decisions change the underlying population over time. Conventional wisdom suggests that fairness criteria promote the long-term well-being of those groups they aim to protect. We study how static fairness criteria interact with temporal indicators of well-being, such as long-term improvement, stagnation, and decline in a variable of interest. We demonstrate that even in a one-step feedback model, common fairness criteria in general do not promote improvement over time, and may in fact cause harm in cases where an unconstrained objective would not. We completely characterize the delayed impact of three standard criteria, contrasting the regimes in which these exhibit qualitatively different behavior. In addition, we find that a natural form of measurement error broadens the regime in which fairness criteria perform favorably. Our results highlight the importance of measurement and temporal modeling in the evaluation of fairness criteria, suggesting a range of new challenges and trade-offs.
Key facts. Cited by 183 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 12 Mar 2018.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 36; 2022: 38; 2023: 38; 2024: 26; 2025: 26; 2026: 19.
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- 2021A survey on datasets for fairness-aware machine learningcited by 157
- 2023Harms from Increasingly Agentic Algorithmic Systemscited by 134
- 2021A Clarification of the Nuances in the Fairness Metrics Landscapecited by 98
- 2021Towards Unbiased and Accurate Deferral to Multiple Expertscited by 71
- 2021Fairness in Credit Scoring: Assessment, Implementation and Profit Implicationscited by 65
- 2023Performative Prediction: Past and Futurecited by 52
- 2022Evaluation Gaps in Machine Learning Practicecited by 48
- 2022Causal Conceptions of Fairness and their Consequencescited by 38
- 2021An Examination of Fairness of AI Models for Deepfake Detectioncited by 34
- 2021Stateful Strategic Regressioncited by 32
- 2022Fairness Transferability Subject to Bounded Distribution Shiftcited by 28
- 2022Explanations, Fairness, and Appropriate Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Makingcited by 25
38 more
- 2023Long-Term Fairness with Unknown Dynamicscited by 25
- 2024Large Language Models as Recommender Systems: A Study of Popularity Biascited by 25
- 2021A Sociotechnical View of Algorithmic Fairnesscited by 24
- 2021Fair Classification with Adversarial Perturbationscited by 23
- 2023Causal Reinforcement Learning: A Surveycited by 22
- 2021Strategic Rankingcited by 21
- 2022Fair ranking: a critical review, challenges, and future directionscited by 21
- 2021Fairness On The Ground: Applying Algorithmic Fairness Approaches to Production Systemscited by 20
- 2022De-biasing "bias" measurementcited by 20
- 2021Unintended Selection: Persistent Qualification Rate Disparities and Interventionscited by 18
- 2022Achieving Long-Term Fairness in Sequential Decision Makingcited by 18
- 2022What-is and How-to for Fairness in Machine Learning: A Survey, Reflection, and Perspectivecited by 18
- 2022Algorithmic Fairness in Business Analytics: Directions for Research and Practicecited by 18
- 2023Runtime Monitoring of Dynamic Fairness Propertiescited by 17
- 2023Can Fairness be Automated? Guidelines and Opportunities for Fairness-aware AutoMLcited by 16
- 2021Achieving Counterfactual Fairness for Causal Banditcited by 15
- 2022Graph Learning for Anomaly Analytics: Algorithms, Applications, and Challengescited by 15
- 2022Survey on Fair Reinforcement Learning: Theory and Practicecited by 14
- 2023Improved Bayes Risk Can Yield Reduced Social Welfare Under Competitioncited by 14
- 2022Policy Optimization with Advantage Regularization for Long-Term Fairness in Decision Systemscited by 13
- 2021FairCanary: Rapid Continuous Explainable Fairnesscited by 12
- 2021A comparison of approaches to improve worst-case predictive model performance over patient subpopulationscited by 12
- 2021Towards Return Parity in Markov Decision Processescited by 12
- 2022The Long Arc of Fairness: Formalisations and Ethical Discoursecited by 12
- 2023A Classification of Feedback Loops and Their Relation to Biases in Automated Decision-Making Systemscited by 12
- 2024Trustworthy Distributed AI Systems: Robustness, Privacy, and Governancecited by 12
- 2024Non-linear Welfare-Aware Strategic Learningcited by 12
- 2021Learning to be Fair: A Consequentialist Approach to Equitable Decision-Makingcited by 11
- 2022Fair When Trained, Unfair When Deployed: Observable Fairness Measures are Unstable in Performative Prediction Settingscited by 11
- 2024Accounting for AI and Users Shaping One Another: The Role of Mathematical Modelscited by 11
- 2021Recommendation Fairness: From Static to Dynamiccited by 10
- 2022Towards Substantive Conceptions of Algorithmic Fairness: Normative Guidance from Equal Opportunity Doctrinescited by 10
- 2025Robustness and Cybersecurity in the EU Artificial Intelligence Actcited by 10
- 2021Fairness with Continuous Optimal Transportcited by 9
- 2022Equalizing Credit Opportunity in Algorithms: Aligning Algorithmic Fairness Research with U.S. Fair Lending Regulationcited by 9
- 2022Reinforcement Learning with Stepwise Fairness Constraintscited by 9
- 2024Automating Data Annotation under Strategic Human Agents: Risks and Potential Solutionscited by 9
- 2021Pareto Efficient Fairness in Supervised Learning: From Extraction to Tracingcited by 8
50 most cited of 183 All 183 (JSON)
- 2026Fairness Theatre: Evaluating Post-Hoc Fairness Interventions in Vendor-Controlled Early Warning Systems29 Sep 2026
- 2026Evaluating Model Retraining under Drift: Paired Comparisons of Cumulative Subgroup Disparity9 Sep 2026
- 2026Beyond Outcome Gaps: Process-Aware Fairness Diagnosis for LLM-based Multi-Agent Decision Systems2 Sep 2026
- 2026Beyond Binary: Continuous State Optimization with Graph-Structured Objectives10 Aug 2026
- 2026A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning9 Aug 2026
- 2026Inference-Time Policy Alignment for Fair Reinforcement Learning31 Jul 2026
- 2026End-to-End Fairness Optimization with Fair Decision-Focused Learning31 Jul 2026
- 2026Retraining Seeks Stable Signals17 Jul 2026
- 2026Simulating Eutopia: Revisiting Long-term Fairness with Outcomes, Performativity, and Dynamics2 Jul 2026
- 2026No-Free-Fairness: Fundamental Limits and Trade-offs in Learning Systems16 Jun 2026
- 2026COPF: An Online Framework for Deployment-Stable Counterfactual Fairness in Evolving Graphs30 May 2026
- 2026Energy Shields for Fairness24 May 2026
38 more
- 2026Long-term Fairness with Selective Labels21 May 2026
- 2026Price of Fairness in Short-Term and Long-Term Algorithmic Selections7 May 2026
- 2026Fairness under uncertainty in sequential decisions23 Apr 2026
- 2026Fairness May Backfire: When Leveling-Down Occurs in Fair Machine Learning6 Mar 2026
- 2026How Predicted Links Influence Network Evolution: Disentangling Choice and Algorithmic Feedback in Dynamic Graphs4 Mar 2026
- 2026Dissecting Performative Prediction: A Comprehensive Survey10 Feb 2026
- 2026Failing on Bias Mitigation: A Case Study on the Challenges of Fairness in Government Data21 Jan 2026
- 2025Happiness as a Measure of Fairness2 Nov 2025
- 2025Understanding Fairness and Prediction Error through Subspace Decomposition and Influence Analysis27 Oct 2025
- 2025Tabular Diffusion Counterfactual Explanations31 Aug 2025
- 2025Toward Substantive Intersectional Algorithmic Fairness: Desiderata for a Feminist Approach25 Aug 2025
- 2025Online Learning with Multiple Fairness Regularizers via Graph-Structured Feedback19 Aug 2025
- 2025Unequal Uncertainty: Rethinking Algorithmic Interventions for Mitigating Discrimination from AI11 Aug 2025
- 2025Algorithmic Fairness: A Runtime Perspective28 Jul 2025
- 2025The Impact of Pseudo-Science in Financial Loans Risk Prediction22 Jul 2025
- 2025Fair CCA for Fair Representation Learning: An ADNI Study12 Jul 2025
- 2025Monitoring of Static Fairness3 Jul 2025
- 2025A Causal Lens for Learning Long-term Fair Policies12 Jun 2025
- 2025Strategically Deceptive Model Deployment in Performative Prediction10 Jun 2025
- 2025A Computational Approach to Improving Fairness in K-means Clustering29 May 2025
- 2025Effort-aware Fairness: Incorporating a Philosophy-informed, Human-centered Notion of Effort into Algorithmic Fairness Metrics25 May 2025
- 2025Fairness under Competition22 May 2025
- 2025Algorithmic Tradeoffs in Fair Lending: Profitability, Compliance, and Long-Term Impact8 May 2025
- 2025Anticipating Gaming to Incentivize Improvement: Guiding Agents in (Fair) Strategic Classification8 May 2025
- 2025Counting Hours, Counting Losses: The Toll of Unpredictable Work Schedules on Financial Security10 Apr 2025
- 2025Voices of Freelance Professional Writers on AI: Limitations, Expectations, and Fears7 Apr 2025
- 2025Evolutionary Prediction Games5 Mar 2025
- 2025MAFE: Enabling Equitable Algorithm Design in Multi-Agent Multi-Stage Decision-Making Systems25 Feb 2025
- 2025Robustness and Cybersecurity in the EU Artificial Intelligence Act22 Feb 2025
- 2025Welfare as a Guiding Principle for Machine Learning -- From Compass, to Lens, to Roadmap17 Feb 2025
- 2025A Critical Review of Predominant Bias in Neural Networks16 Feb 2025
- 2025Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning via Sequential Data Preprocessing10 Jan 2025
- 2025FairSense: Long-Term Fairness Analysis of ML-Enabled Systems3 Jan 2025
- 2024An Experimental Study on Fairness-aware Machine Learning for Credit Scoring Problems28 Dec 2024
- 2024Fairness in Reinforcement Learning with Bisimulation Metrics22 Dec 2024
- 2024Lookahead Counterfactual Fairness2 Dec 2024
- 2024Fair Resource Allocation in Weakly Coupled Markov Decision Processes14 Nov 2024
- 2024Microfoundation Inference for Strategic Prediction13 Nov 2024
50 newest of 183 All 183 (JSON)
- 2021A survey on datasets for fairness-aware machine learningcited by 157
- 2021A Clarification of the Nuances in the Fairness Metrics Landscapecited by 98
- 2021Towards Unbiased and Accurate Deferral to Multiple Expertscited by 71
- 2021Fairness in Credit Scoring: Assessment, Implementation and Profit Implicationscited by 65
- 2023Performative Prediction: Past and Futurecited by 52
- 2022Evaluation Gaps in Machine Learning Practicecited by 48
- 2022Causal Conceptions of Fairness and their Consequencescited by 38
- 2021An Examination of Fairness of AI Models for Deepfake Detectioncited by 34
- 2021Stateful Strategic Regressioncited by 32
- 2022Fairness Transferability Subject to Bounded Distribution Shiftcited by 28
- 2022Explanations, Fairness, and Appropriate Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Makingcited by 25
- 2023Long-Term Fairness with Unknown Dynamicscited by 25
12 most cited of 181 All 181 (JSON)
- 2026Fairness Theatre: Evaluating Post-Hoc Fairness Interventions in Vendor-Controlled Early Warning Systems29 Sep 2026
- 2026Evaluating Model Retraining under Drift: Paired Comparisons of Cumulative Subgroup Disparity9 Sep 2026
- 2026Beyond Binary: Continuous State Optimization with Graph-Structured Objectives10 Aug 2026
- 2026A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning9 Aug 2026
- 2026Inference-Time Policy Alignment for Fair Reinforcement Learning31 Jul 2026
- 2026End-to-End Fairness Optimization with Fair Decision-Focused Learning31 Jul 2026
- 2026Retraining Seeks Stable Signals17 Jul 2026
- 2026Simulating Eutopia: Revisiting Long-term Fairness with Outcomes, Performativity, and Dynamics2 Jul 2026
- 2026No-Free-Fairness: Fundamental Limits and Trade-offs in Learning Systems16 Jun 2026
- 2026COPF: An Online Framework for Deployment-Stable Counterfactual Fairness in Evolving Graphs30 May 2026
- 2026Energy Shields for Fairness24 May 2026
- 2026Long-term Fairness with Selective Labels21 May 2026
12 newest of 181 All 181 (JSON)