mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity

arXiv 2506.06941 ↗First posted 7 Jun 2025cs.AI cs.CL cs.LGcited by 302

On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking

Abstract (arXiv)

Recent generations of language models have introduced Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) that generate detailed thinking processes before providing answers. While these models demonstrate improved performance on reasoning benchmarks, their fundamental capabilities, scaling properties, and limitations remain insufficiently understood. Current evaluations primarily focus on established math and coding benchmarks, emphasizing final answer accuracy. However, this evaluation paradigm often suffers from contamination and does not provide insights into the reasoning traces. In this work, we systematically investigate these gaps with the help of controllable puzzle environments that allow precise manipulation of complexity while maintaining consistent logical structures. This setup enables the analysis of not only final answers but also the internal reasoning traces, offering insights into how LRMs think. Through extensive experiments, we show that LRMs face a complete accuracy collapse beyond certain complexities. Moreover, they exhibit a counterintuitive scaling limit: their reasoning effort increases with problem complexity up to a point, then declines despite having remaining token budget. By comparing LRMs with their standard LLM counterparts under same inference compute, we identify three performance regimes: (1) low-complexity tasks where standard models outperform LRMs, (2) medium-complexity tasks where LRMs demonstrates advantage, and (3) high-complexity tasks where both models face complete collapse. We found that LRMs have limitations in exact computation: they fail to use explicit algorithms and reason inconsistently across scales. We also investigate the reasoning traces in more depth, studying the patterns of explored solutions and analyzing the models' computational behavior, shedding light on their strengths, limitations, and raising questions about their reasoning capabilities.

Key facts. Cited by 302 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 34 of its 52 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Jun 2025.

Builds on

34 of 52 references.

Closest ancestors · 7

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025Reasoning Models Can Be Effective Without Thinking14 Apr
  2. 2025Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models20 Mar
  3. 2025The relationship between reasoning and performance in large language models--o3 (mini) thinks harder, not longer21 Feb
  4. 2025Sample, Scrutinize and Scale: Effective Inference-Time Search by Scaling Verification3 Feb
  5. 2024Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs30 Dec
  6. 2023Think before you speak: Training Language Models With Pause Tokens3 Oct
  7. 2022STaR: Bootstrapping Reasoning With Reasoning28 Mar

Other references · 27

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
  2. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,459
  3. 2025DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learningcited by 6,330
  4. 2022Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasonerscited by 4,374
  5. 2023Let's Verify Step by Stepcited by 3,789
  6. 2024Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phonecited by 1,917
  7. 2024Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Trainingcited by 1,053
  8. 2025Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?cited by 982
  9. 2024GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 550
  10. 2023Faith and Fate: Limits of Transformers on Compositionalitycited by 503
  11. 2025Reasoning Models Don't Always Say What They Thinkcited by 415
  12. 2022Large Language Models are Better Reasoners with Self-Verificationcited by 307
15 more
  1. 2022Making Large Language Models Better Reasoners with Step-Aware Verifiercited by 233
  2. 2025ARC-AGI-2: A New Challenge for Frontier AI Reasoning Systemscited by 190
  3. 2023Embers of Autoregression: Understanding Large Language Models Through the Problem They are Trained to Solvecited by 178
  4. 2025LLMs Can Easily Learn to Reason from Demonstrations Structure, not content, is what matters!cited by 132
  5. 2025Optimizing Test-Time Compute via Meta Reinforcement Fine-Tuningcited by 123
  6. 2022Teaching Algorithmic Reasoning via In-context Learningcited by 112
  7. 2024LLMs Still Can't Plan; Can LRMs? A Preliminary Evaluation of OpenAI's o1 on PlanBenchcited by 94
  8. 2025DeepSeek-R1 Thoughtology: Let's think about LLM Reasoningcited by 92
  9. 2024Alice in Wonderland: Simple Tasks Showing Complete Reasoning Breakdown in State-Of-the-Art Large Language Modelscited by 68
  10. 2022LAMBADA: Backward Chaining for Automated Reasoning in Natural Languagecited by 66
  11. 2025When Thinking Fails: The Pitfalls of Reasoning for Instruction-Following in LLMscited by 53
  12. 2024LMAct: A Benchmark for In-Context Imitation Learning with Long Multimodal Demonstrationscited by 32
  13. 2024Thinking Tokens for Language Modelingcited by 24
  14. 2024Limits of Deep Learning: Sequence Modeling through the Lens of Complexity Theorycited by 19
  15. 2025Improving Large Language Model Planning with Action Sequence Similaritycited by 7

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 150; 2026: 152.

302 papers.

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  1. 2025Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards Implicitly Incentivizes Correct Reasoning in Base LLMscited by 289
  2. 2025The Illusion of Diminishing Returns: Measuring Long Horizon Execution in LLMscited by 64
  3. 2025OMEGA: Can LLMs Reason Outside the Box in Math? Evaluating Exploratory, Compositional, and Transformative Generalizationcited by 50
  4. 2025Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage? A Data Distribution Lenscited by 43
  5. 2025No Free Lunch: Rethinking Internal Feedback for LLM Reasoningcited by 37
  6. 2025Reinforcement Learning Meets Large Language Models: A Survey of Advancements and Applications Across the LLM Lifecyclecited by 35
  7. 2025RL Squeezes, SFT Expands: A Comparative Study of Reasoning LLMscited by 34
  8. 2025Energy-Based Transformers are Scalable Learners and Thinkerscited by 31
  9. 2025The Open Proof Corpus: A Large-Scale Study of LLM-Generated Mathematical Proofscited by 30
  10. 2026Logical Phase Transitions: Understanding Collapse in LLM Logical Reasoningcited by 25
  11. 2025Comment on The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexitycited by 23
  12. 2025Frontier LLMs Still Struggle with Simple Reasoning Taskscited by 21
38 more
  1. 2026Large Language Model Reasoning Failurescited by 21
  2. 2025Variation in Verification: Understanding Verification Dynamics in Large Language Modelscited by 19
  3. 2025CME-CAD: Heterogeneous Collaborative Multi-Expert Reinforcement Learning for CAD Code Generationcited by 19
  4. 2025Technological folie `a deux: Feedback Loops Between AI Chatbots and Mental Illnesscited by 15
  5. 2025How Far Are AI Scientists from Changing the World?cited by 15
  6. 2025MEML-GRPO: Heterogeneous Multi-Expert Mutual Learning for RLVR Advancementcited by 14
  7. 2026NeuReasoner: Towards Explainable, Controllable, and Unified Reasoning via Mixture-of-Neuronscited by 14
  8. 2025Formalizing Learning from Language Feedback with Provable Guaranteescited by 13
  9. 2025Towards Reliable Benchmarking: A Contamination Free, Controllable Evaluation Framework for Multi-step LLM Function Callingcited by 13
  10. 2025Context Is What You Need: The Maximum Effective Context Window for Real World Limits of LLMscited by 12
  11. 2025Position: The Hidden Costs and Measurement Gaps of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewardscited by 12
  12. 2025A Unified Reasoning Framework for Holistic Zero-Shot Video Anomaly Analysiscited by 12
  13. 2025Code Like Humans: A Multi-Agent Solution for Medical Codingcited by 11
  14. 2025Epistemological Fault Lines Between Human and Artificial Intelligencecited by 11
  15. 2025Do LLMs Really Need 10+ Thoughts for "Find the Time 1000 Days Later"? Towards Structural Understanding of LLM Overthinkingcited by 10
  16. 2026The Hot Mess of AI: How Does Misalignment Scale With Model Intelligence and Task Complexity?cited by 10
  17. 2026Recursive Multi-Agent Systemscited by 10
  18. 2025From Prompts to Constructs: A Dual-Validity Framework for Large Language Model Research in Psychologycited by 9
  19. 2025Comprehension Without Competence: Architectural Limits of LLMs in Symbolic Computation and Reasoningcited by 9
  20. 2025From Reasoning to Super-Intelligence: A Search-Theoretic Perspectivecited by 9
  21. 2025Thinking Isn't an Illusion: Overcoming the Limitations of Reasoning Models via Tool Augmentationscited by 9
  22. 2025Are LLM Belief Updates Consistent with Bayes' Theorem?cited by 9
  23. 2025Revolution or Hype? Seeking the Limits of Large Models in Hardware Designcited by 9
  24. 2025h1: Bootstrapping LLMs to Reason over Longer Horizons via Reinforcement Learningcited by 9
  25. 2025Tracing the Traces: Latent Temporal Signals for Efficient and Accurate Reasoningcited by 9
  26. 2026The Illusion of Insight in Reasoning Modelscited by 9
  27. 2026Symphony: A Cognitively-Inspired Multi-Agent System for Long-Video Understandingcited by 9
  28. 2025A Comment On "The Illusion of Thinking": Reframing the Reasoning Cliff as an Agentic Gapcited by 8
  29. 2025MazeEval: A Benchmark for Testing Sequential Decision-Making in Language Modelscited by 8
  30. 2025BeyondBench: Contamination-Resistant Evaluation of Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 8
  31. 2025Probing the Difficulty Perception Mechanism of Large Language Modelscited by 8
  32. 2025Dyna-Mind: Learning to Simulate from Experience for Better AI Agentscited by 8
  33. 2026Neural Chain-of-Thought Search: Searching the Optimal Reasoning Path to Enhance Large Language Modelscited by 8
  34. 2025From Multi-Agent Systems and the Semantic Web to Agentic AI: A Unified Narrative of the Web of Agentscited by 7
  35. 2025Towards a Common Framework for Autoformalizationcited by 7
  36. 2025Planner-R1: Reward Shaping Enables Efficient Agentic RL with Smaller LLMscited by 7
  37. 2025VeriEquivBench: An Equivalence Score for Ground-Truth-Free Evaluation of Formally Verifiable Codecited by 7
  38. 2025Benefits and Limitations of Communication in Multi-Agent Reasoningcited by 7

50 most cited of 302 All 302 (JSON)

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  1. 2025Exploring the System 1 Thinking Capability of Large Reasoning Models
  2. 2025Reasoning Effort and Problem Complexity: A Scaling Analysis in LLMs
  3. 2025FINEREASON: Evaluating and Improving LLMs' Deliberate Reasoning through Reflective Puzzle Solving
  4. 2024The Role of Deductive and Inductive Reasoning in Large Language Models
  5. 2025Demystifying Reasoning Dynamics with Mutual Information: Thinking Tokens are Information Peaks in LLM Reasoning
  6. 2026An Enigma of Artificial Reason: Investigating the Production-Evaluation Gap in Large Reasoning Models
  7. 2025THINK-Bench: Evaluating Thinking Efficiency and Chain-of-Thought Quality of Large Reasoning Models
  8. 2026When More Thinking Hurts: Overthinking in LLM Test-Time Compute Scaling