mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Models

arXiv 2608.13262 ↗First posted 13 Aug 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have advanced primarily through architectural innovation, while training regimes for large-scale heterogeneous corpora remain under-explored. As a result, pre-training distributions are often poorly controlled with respect to domain imbalance, context requirements, prediction horizons, and missingness. We introduce ORBIT (Omni-Range Bootstrap Incremental Training), a training paradigm that makes this distribution explicit and controllable. ORBIT combines Bootstrap Multi-Level Sampling, which controls dataset exposure and samples records, target variables, context windows, and prediction horizons, with Omni-Range Incremental Training, which varies context lengths and prediction horizons throughout a single training stage. Under ORBIT, we train Falcon-2.0, a simple univariate encoder-only Transformer with missingness-aware triple-channel patch tokenization and parallel patch prediction. We further introduce Rank-Guided Cross-Depth Alignment, a training objective that uses late-layer representations as stop-gradient teachers for shallow layers without additional inference cost. Evaluations on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting performance across diverse domains and frequencies.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 51 of its 78 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 Aug 2026.

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51 of 78 references.

References · 51

  1. 2021RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embeddingcited by 4,581
  2. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,141
  3. 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 1,981
  4. 2019Megatron-LM: Training Multi-Billion Parameter Language Models Using Model Parallelismcited by 1,829
  5. 2020GLU Variants Improve Transformercited by 1,724
  6. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,654
  7. 2022FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 1,200
  8. 2023iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecastingcited by 906
  9. 2017Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networkscited by 869
  10. 2019Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecastingcited by 748
  11. 2024Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Seriescited by 712
  12. 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 650
38 more
  1. 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 588
  2. 2016Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Valuescited by 548
  3. 2024MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Modelscited by 453
  4. 2024Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Expertscited by 280
  5. 2025Gated Attention for Large Language Models: Non-linearity, Sparsity, and Attention-Sink-Freecited by 266
  6. 2021Monash Time Series Forecasting Archivecited by 256
  7. 2022Self-Supervised Contrastive Pre-Training For Time Series via Time-Frequency Consistencycited by 246
  8. 2024Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Surveycited by 234
  9. 2024Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Modelscited by 198
  10. 2024GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluationcited by 188
  11. 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 168
  12. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 158
  13. 2024Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Seriescited by 120
  14. 2023Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysiscited by 113
  15. 2025TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learningcited by 107
  16. 2024Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecastingcited by 83
  17. 2025TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecastingcited by 60
  18. 2025Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecastingcited by 59
  19. 2025This Time is Different: An Observability Perspective on Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 57
  20. 2025fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecastingcited by 52
  21. 2025No Other Representation Component Is Needed: Diffusion Transformers Can Provide Representation Guidance by Themselvescited by 50
  22. 2025From Tables to Time: Extending TabPFN-v2 to Time Series Forecastingcited by 49
  23. 2024Adaptive Multi-Scale Decomposition Framework for Time Series Forecastingcited by 34
  24. 2020A machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time seriescited by 28
  25. 2023Toward a Foundation Model for Time Series Datacited by 28
  26. 2026Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scalingcited by 24
  27. 2022SDWPF: A Dataset for Spatial Dynamic Wind Power Forecasting Challenge at KDD Cup 2022cited by 21
  28. 2026Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Eracited by 21
  29. 2025Foundation Models for Time Series: A Surveycited by 19
  30. 2025Bridging Past and Future: Distribution-Aware Alignment for Time Series Forecastingcited by 19
  31. 2023AutoMixer for Improved Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting on Business and IT Observability Datacited by 17
  32. 2026TiRex-2: Generalizing TiRex to Multivariate Data and Streamingcited by 10
  33. 2026QuitoBench: A High-Quality Open Time Series Forecasting Benchmarkcited by 9
  34. 2025Understanding Transformers for Time Series: Rank Structure, Flow-of-ranks, and Compressibilitycited by 8
  35. 2026Falcon-X: A Time Series Foundation Model for Heterogeneous Multivariate Modelingcited by 7
  36. 2024Time is Not Enough: Time-Frequency based Explanation for Time-Series Black-Box Modelscited by 6
  37. 2022HERMES: Hybrid Error-corrector Model with inclusion of External Signals for nonstationary fashion time seriescited by 5
  38. 2025GTM: A General Time-series Model for Enhanced Representation Learning of Time-Series Datacited by 4

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