Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models
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Abstract (arXiv)
Inherent temporal heterogeneity, such as varying sampling densities and periodic structures, has posed substantial challenges in zero-shot generalization for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). Existing TSFMs predominantly rely on massive parameterization to absorb such heterogeneity, as their static tokenization and positional encoding schemes entangle diverse temporal patterns into a fixed representation space, encouraging memorization rather than adaptation. To address this limitation, we propose Kairos, a flexible and parameter-efficient TSFM dedicated to forecasting tasks, which decouples temporal heterogeneity from model capacity through a novel tokenization perspective. Kairos introduces a dynamic patching tokenizer and a mixture-of-size encoding that adapt observational granularity to local information density, enabling fine-grained temporal abstraction without increasing model width or depth. In addition, we design a multi-granularity positional embedding based on dynamic rotary encodings, which conditions on instance-level spectral features and temporal structure induced by dynamic patching tokenization, allowing robust modeling of diverse temporal dependencies. Trained on a novel Predictability-Stratified Time-Series (PreSTS) corpus, Kairos achieves superior zero-shot performance with substantially fewer parameters on two mainstream benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and Time-Series-Library. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 41 of its 49 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2025.
Builds on
41 of 49 references.
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29 more
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 8.
9 papers.
- 2025Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecastingcited by 69
- 2026Reverso: Efficient Time Series Foundation Models for Zero-shot Forecastingcited by 13
- 2026KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoningcited by 5
- 2026TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecastingcited by 4
- 2026EXAONE Finance 1.0: An Attention-free Time Series Foundation Model for Financial Time Seriescited by 3
- 2026Adaptive Patching Is Harder Than It Looks For Time-Series Forecastingcited by 0
- 2026Air Quality Arena: A Large-Scale Multi-Region Ground Monitoring Dataset and Benchmark for Air Quality Forecasting with Time-Series Foundation Modelscited by 0
- 2026EXAONE Demand 1.0: A Time Series Foundation Model for Demand Forecastingcited by 0
- 2026A Unified Scaling Law for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 0
- 2026A Unified Scaling Law for Time Series Foundation Models4 Oct 2026
- 2026EXAONE Demand 1.0: A Time Series Foundation Model for Demand Forecasting25 Sep 2026
- 2026EXAONE Finance 1.0: An Attention-free Time Series Foundation Model for Financial Time Series4 Aug 2026
- 2026Air Quality Arena: A Large-Scale Multi-Region Ground Monitoring Dataset and Benchmark for Air Quality Forecasting with Time-Series Foundation Models1 Jul 2026
- 2026Adaptive Patching Is Harder Than It Looks For Time-Series Forecasting2 Jun 2026
- 2026KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning28 May 2026
- 2026TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecasting13 Apr 2026
- 2026Reverso: Efficient Time Series Foundation Models for Zero-shot Forecasting19 Feb 2026
- 2025Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting12 Nov 2025