TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platform
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Abstract (arXiv)
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated train and test time series. To address this, we introduce TS-Arena, a live forecasting platform that shifts evaluation from the known past to the unknown future. Building on the concept of continuous benchmarking, TS-Arena evaluates models on future data. Crucially, we introduce a strict forecasting pre-registration protocol: models must submit predictions before the ground-truth data physically exists. This makes test-set contamination impossible by design. The platform relies on a modular microservice architecture that harmonizes and structures data from different sources and orchestrates containerized model submissions. By enforcing a strict pre-registration protocol on live data streams, TS-Arena prevents information leakage offers a faster alternative to traditional static, infrequently repeated competitions (e.g. the M-Competitions). First empirical results derived from operating TS-Arena over one year of energy time series demonstrate that established TSFMs accumulate robust longitudinal scores over time, while the continuous nature of the benchmark simultaneously allows newcomers to demonstrate immediate competitiveness. TS-Arena provides the necessary infrastructure to assess the true generalization capabilities of modern forecasting models. The platform and corresponding code are available at https://ts-arena.live/.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 20 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 23 Dec 2025.
Builds on
20 of 41 references.
References · 20
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- 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 614
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- 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 180
- 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 176
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8 more
- 2020Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunitycited by 56
- 2023Rethinking Model Evaluation as Narrowing the Socio-Technical Gapcited by 56
- 2024Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 33
- 2025Rethinking Evaluation in the Era of Time Series Foundation Models: (Un)known Information Leakage Challengescited by 16
- 2024Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Short-Term Household Electricity Load Forecastingcited by 12
- 2025VisionTS++: Cross-Modal Time Series Foundation Model with Continual Pre-trained Vision Backbonescited by 12
- 2025Multi-period Learning for Financial Time Series Forecastingcited by 11
- 2025Measuring Time Series Forecast Stability for Demand Planningcited by 2
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.
3 papers.
- 2026Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecastingcited by 1
- 2026Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependencecited by 1
- 2026LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sportscited by 1
- 2026LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sports27 Jul 2026
- 2026Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependence2 Jul 2026
- 2026Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting27 Apr 2026