mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Safe Real-World Autonomous Driving by Learning to Predict and Plan with a Mixture of Experts

arXiv 2211.02131 ↗First posted 3 Nov 2022cs.RO cs.LGcited by 29

On the map: End-to-end autonomous driving → End-to-end system architecture

Abstract (arXiv)

The goal of autonomous vehicles is to navigate public roads safely and comfortably. To enforce safety, traditional planning approaches rely on handcrafted rules to generate trajectories. Machine learning-based systems, on the other hand, scale with data and are able to learn more complex behaviors. However, they often ignore that agents and self-driving vehicle trajectory distributions can be leveraged to improve safety. In this paper, we propose modeling a distribution over multiple future trajectories for both the self-driving vehicle and other road agents, using a unified neural network architecture for prediction and planning. During inference, we select the planning trajectory that minimizes a cost taking into account safety and the predicted probabilities. Our approach does not depend on any rule-based planners for trajectory generation or optimization, improves with more training data and is simple to implement. We extensively evaluate our method through a realistic simulator and show that the predicted trajectory distribution corresponds to different driving profiles. We also successfully deploy it on a self-driving vehicle on urban public roads, confirming that it drives safely without compromising comfort. The code for training and testing our model on a public prediction dataset and the video of the road test are available at https://woven.mobi/safepathnet

Key facts. Cited by 29 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in End-to-end system architecture, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving. Builds on 26 of its 40 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Nov 2022.

Builds on

26 of 40 references.

Closest ancestors · 3

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2021SafetyNet: Safe planning for real-world self-driving vehicles using machine-learned policies28 Sep
  2. 2021SimNet: Learning Reactive Self-driving Simulations from Real-world Observations26 May
  3. 2021End-to-end Interpretable Neural Motion Planner17 Jan

Other references · 23

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2020End-to-End Object Detection with Transformerscited by 7,414
  3. 2016PointNet: Deep Learning on Point Sets for 3D Classification and Segmentationcited by 5,248
  4. 2016SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restartscited by 5,045
  5. 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,515
  6. 2016End to End Learning for Self-Driving Carscited by 1,009
  7. 2020VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representationcited by 530
  8. 2018ChauffeurNet: Learning to Drive by Imitating the Best and Synthesizing the Worstcited by 397
  9. 2016Safe, Multi-Agent, Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 311
  10. 2018Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networkscited by 289
  11. 2018Learning to Drive in a Daycited by 273
  12. 2019CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Setscited by 259
11 more
  1. 2016A Survey of Motion Planning and Control Techniques for Self-driving Urban Vehiclescited by 254
  2. 2021MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Predictioncited by 246
  3. 2020One Thousand and One Hours: Self-driving Motion Prediction Datasetcited by 240
  4. 2020Perceive, Predict, and Plan: Safe Motion Planning Through Interpretable Semantic Representationscited by 153
  5. 2020Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecastingcited by 116
  6. 2021LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Drivingcited by 96
  7. 2019Urban Driving with Conditional Imitation Learningcited by 86
  8. 2021Identifying Driver Interactions via Conditional Behavior Predictioncited by 48
  9. 2018Variational End-to-End Navigation and Localizationcited by 34
  10. 2021PredictionNet: Real-Time Joint Probabilistic Traffic Prediction for Planning, Control, and Simulationcited by 29
  11. 2021Heterogeneous-Agent Trajectory Forecasting Incorporating Class Uncertaintycited by 19

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 5; 2024: 12; 2025: 9; 2026: 3.

29 papers.

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By area:

  1. 2023Parting with Misconceptions about Learning-based Vehicle Motion Planningcited by 242
  2. 2024GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 225
  3. 2024PLUTO: Pushing the Limit of Imitation Learning-based Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 84
  4. 2025HiP-AD: Hierarchical and Multi-Granularity Planning with Deformable Attention for Autonomous Driving in a Single Decodercited by 35
  5. 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Reviewcited by 29
  6. 2023Rethinking Imitation-based Planner for Autonomous Drivingcited by 25
  7. 2025Plan-R1: Safe and Feasible Trajectory Planning as Language Modelingcited by 20
  8. 2024Hybrid-Prediction Integrated Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 18
  9. 2024AD4RL: Autonomous Driving Benchmarks for Offline Reinforcement Learning with Value-based Datasetcited by 15
  10. 2025Enhancing Autonomous Driving Safety with Collision Scenario Integrationcited by 9
  11. 2023CRITERIA: a New Benchmarking Paradigm for Evaluating Trajectory Prediction Models for Autonomous Drivingcited by 8
  12. 2024Learning Multiple Probabilistic Decisions from Latent World Model in Autonomous Drivingcited by 8
17 more
  1. 2024Integration of Mixture of Experts and Multimodal Generative AI in Internet of Vehicles: A Surveycited by 6
  2. 2025GEMINUS: Dual-aware Global and Scene-Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
  3. 2024Pioneering SE(2)-Equivariant Trajectory Planning for Automated Drivingcited by 4
  4. 2025Perfect Prediction or Plenty of Proposals? What Matters Most in Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 4
  5. 2023Imagination-Augmented Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Safe and Interactive Autonomous Driving in Urban Environmentscited by 3
  6. 2024PP-TIL: Personalized Planning for Autonomous Driving with Instance-based Transfer Imitation Learningcited by 3
  7. 2025ExpertAD: Enhancing Autonomous Driving Systems with Mixture of Expertscited by 3
  8. 2024CoCoGesture: Toward Coherent Co-speech 3D Gesture Generation in the Wildcited by 2
  9. 2026The Rise of Sparse Mixture-of-Experts: A Survey from Algorithmic Foundations to Decentralized Architectures and Vertical Domain Applicationscited by 2
  10. 2024Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Vehicle Using Iterative Reward Prediction in Reinforcement Learningcited by 1
  11. 2024Utilizing Navigation Paths to Generate Target Points for Enhanced End-to-End Autonomous Driving Planningcited by 1
  12. 2024Hybrid Imitation-Learning Motion Planner for Urban Drivingcited by 1
  13. 2025CAFE-AD: Cross-Scenario Adaptive Feature Enhancement for Trajectory Planning in Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
  14. 2025PIE: Perception and Interaction Enhanced End-to-End Motion Planning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
  15. 2025Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Responsecited by 1
  16. 2026STAGE: STyle-controllable Action GEneration for personalized autonomous drivingcited by 0
  17. 2026Risk-Aware World Modeling with Flow-Guided Occupancy Evolution for Selective Trajectory Planning in Automated Drivingcited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025Drive in Corridors: Enhancing the Safety of End-to-end Autonomous Driving via Corridor Learning and Planning
  2. 2020Safe Trajectory Planning Using Reinforcement Learning for Self Driving
  3. 2026Towards Safer Autonomous Driving in an Open World: A Dual-Process Approach
  4. 2026Learning-Based Behavior Planning for Automated Driving: Real-World Integration and Deployment
  5. 2024Towards learning-based planning:The nuPlan benchmark for real-world autonomous driving
  6. 2021Reinforcement Learning Based Safe Decision Making for Highway Autonomous Driving
  7. 2024A Safety-Oriented Self-Learning Algorithm for Autonomous Driving: Evolution Starting from a Basic Model
  8. 2022Distribution-aware Goal Prediction and Conformant Model-based Planning for Safe Autonomous Driving