mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Risk Control

arXiv 2208.02814 ↗First posted 4 Aug 2022stat.ME cs.AI cs.LGcited by 299

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Abstract (arXiv)

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Key facts. Cited by 299 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 26 of its 44 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2022.

Builds on

26 of 44 references.

References · 26

  1. 2015Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognitioncited by 52,096
  2. 2014Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Contextcited by 17,608
  3. 2016SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Textcited by 4,148
  4. 2020Dense Passage Retrieval for Open-Domain Question Answeringcited by 3,824
  5. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  6. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 668
  7. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 629
  8. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 519
  9. 2020PraNet: Parallel Reverse Attention Network for Polyp Segmentationcited by 460
  10. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 396
  11. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 375
  12. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 366
14 more
  1. 2022Conformal prediction beyond exchangeabilitycited by 355
  2. 2022Confident Adaptive Language Modelingcited by 310
  3. 2021Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Setscited by 288
  4. 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 271
  5. 2020Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effectscited by 151
  6. 2020TResNet: High Performance GPU-Dedicated Architecturecited by 119
  7. 2022Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imagingcited by 107
  8. 2021Consistent Accelerated Inference via Confident Adaptive Transformerscited by 74
  9. 2019PAC Confidence Sets for Deep Neural Networks via Calibrated Predictioncited by 60
  10. 2021Conformalized Survival Analysiscited by 53
  11. 2022Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positivescited by 28
  12. 2019Conformal prediction with localizationcited by 23
  13. 2022Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent spacescited by 22
  14. 2022Recommendation Systems with Distribution-Free Reliability Guaranteescited by 13

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 8; 2023: 30; 2024: 54; 2025: 61; 2026: 146.

299 papers.

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  1. 2023Conformal Language Modelingcited by 170
  2. 2024Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guaranteescited by 131
  3. 2024Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methodscited by 92
  4. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 88
  5. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 78
  6. 2022Learning to Defer to Multiple Experts: Consistent Surrogate Losses, Confidence Calibration, and Conformal Ensemblescited by 60
  7. 2024Mitigating LLM Hallucinations via Conformal Abstentioncited by 59
  8. 2024Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Surveycited by 53
  9. 2023How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Controlcited by 50
  10. 2023Conformal Decision Theory: Safe Autonomous Decisions from Imperfect Predictionscited by 50
  11. 2025Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agentscited by 40
  12. 2022Calibrated Selective Classificationcited by 33
38 more
  1. 2023Object Pose Estimation with Statistical Guarantees: Conformal Keypoint Detection and Geometric Uncertainty Propagationcited by 33
  2. 2023Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programmingcited by 33
  3. 2024Fast yet Safe: Early-Exiting with Risk Controlcited by 30
  4. 2022Distribution Free Prediction Sets for Node Classificationcited by 28
  5. 2023Principal Uncertainty Quantification with Spatial Correlation for Image Restoration Problemscited by 28
  6. 2024C-RAG: Certified Generation Risks for Retrieval-Augmented Language Modelscited by 27
  7. 2024Conformal Validity Guarantees Exist for Any Data Distribution (and How to Find Them)cited by 26
  8. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  9. 2024A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Modelscited by 23
  10. 2022Efficiently Controlling Multiple Risks with Pareto Testingcited by 22
  11. 2023Confident Object Detection via Conformal Prediction and Conformal Risk Control: an Application to Railway Signalingcited by 22
  12. 2023Mitigating Temporal Misalignment by Discarding Outdated Factscited by 21
  13. 2023Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Controlcited by 20
  14. 2024Conformal Semantic Image Segmentation: Post-hoc Quantification of Predictive Uncertaintycited by 20
  15. 2024Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Setscited by 20
  16. 2025Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off between Factuality and Specificitycited by 20
  17. 2022Integrative conformal p-values for powerful out-of-distribution testing with labeled outlierscited by 19
  18. 2024Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibrationcited by 19
  19. 2024Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatmentscited by 19
  20. 2024Sample then Identify: A General Framework for Risk Control and Assessment in Multimodal Large Language Modelscited by 19
  21. 2024Localized Adaptive Risk Controlcited by 17
  22. 2023Conformal Autoregressive Generation: Beam Search with Coverage Guaranteescited by 16
  23. 2024Automatically Adaptive Conformal Risk Controlcited by 16
  24. 2024Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Setscited by 16
  25. 2024Adaptive Learn-then-Test: Statistically Valid and Efficient Hyperparameter Selectioncited by 15
  26. 2024End-to-End Conformal Calibration for Optimization Under Uncertaintycited by 15
  27. 2025Wasserstein-regularized Conformal Prediction under General Distribution Shiftcited by 15
  28. 2023Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Efficient Calibration of Image Segmentation Algorithmscited by 14
  29. 2025Conformal Prediction for Image Segmentation Using Morphological Prediction Setscited by 14
  30. 2025Conformal Language Model Reasoning with Coherent Factualitycited by 14
  31. 2026SCOPE: Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise LLM Judgingcited by 14
  32. 2024Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Seriescited by 13
  33. 2024Utility-Directed Conformal Prediction: A Decision-Aware Framework for Actionable Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 13
  34. 2024Semi-Supervised Risk Control via Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 13
  35. 2022Posterior-Variance-Based Error Quantification for Inverse Problems in Imagingcited by 12
  36. 2024Looks Too Good To Be True: An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Hallucinations in Generative Restoration Modelscited by 12
  37. 2024Split Conformal Prediction under Data Contaminationcited by 12
  38. 2025Conformal Arbitrage: Risk-Controlled Balancing of Competing Objectives in Language Modelscited by 12

50 most cited of 299 All 299 (JSON)