Recommendation Systems with Distribution-Free Reliability Guarantees
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Abstract (arXiv)
When building recommendation systems, we seek to output a helpful set of items to the user. Under the hood, a ranking model predicts which of two candidate items is better, and we must distill these pairwise comparisons into the user-facing output. However, a learned ranking model is never perfect, so taking its predictions at face value gives no guarantee that the user-facing output is reliable. Building from a pre-trained ranking model, we show how to return a set of items that is rigorously guaranteed to contain mostly good items. Our procedure endows any ranking model with rigorous finite-sample control of the false discovery rate (FDR), regardless of the (unknown) data distribution. Moreover, our calibration algorithm enables the easy and principled integration of multiple objectives in recommender systems. As an example, we show how to optimize for recommendation diversity subject to a user-specified level of FDR control, circumventing the need to specify ad hoc weights of a diversity loss against an accuracy loss. Throughout, we focus on the problem of learning to rank a set of possible recommendations, evaluating our methods on the Yahoo! Learning to Rank and MSMarco datasets.
Key facts. Cited by 13 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Jul 2022.
Builds on
28 of 60 references.
References · 28
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- 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 375
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- 2018Fairness of Exposure in Rankingscited by 190
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- 2021Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-valuescited by 134
16 more
- 2017Beyond Parity: Fairness Objectives for Collaborative Filteringcited by 93
- 2020Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shiftcited by 82
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- 2021Conformalized Survival Analysiscited by 53
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 2; 2024: 4; 2025: 3; 2026: 3.
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- 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 299
- 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shiftcited by 29
- 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
- 2024Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classificationcited by 8
- 2024Two-stage Risk Control with Application to Ranked Retrievalcited by 6
- 2023Inference-time Stochastic Ranking with Risk Controlcited by 3
- 2025Assumption-free stability for ranking problemscited by 3
- 2025You Don't Bring Me Flowers: Mitigating Unwanted Recommendations Through Conformal Risk Controlcited by 3
- 2024Streamlining Conformal Information Retrieval via Score Refinementcited by 2
- 2025Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Rankingcited by 2
- 2026Distribution-informed Efficient Conformal Prediction for Full Rankingcited by 0
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?cited by 0
1 more
- 2026Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users18 May 2026
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?10 Mar 2026
- 2026Distribution-informed Efficient Conformal Prediction for Full Ranking30 Jan 2026
- 2025You Don't Bring Me Flowers: Mitigating Unwanted Recommendations Through Conformal Risk Control9 Jul 2025
- 2025Assumption-free stability for ranking problems2 Jun 2025
- 2025Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Ranking20 Jan 2025
- 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective9 Oct 2024
- 2024Streamlining Conformal Information Retrieval via Score Refinement3 Oct 2024
- 2024Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classification1 May 2024
- 2024Two-stage Risk Control with Application to Ranked Retrieval27 Apr 2024
- 2023Inference-time Stochastic Ranking with Risk Control12 Jun 2023
- 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift8 Jun 2023
1 more
- 2022Conformal Risk Control4 Aug 2022
- 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 299
- 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shiftcited by 29
- 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
- 2024Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classificationcited by 8
- 2024Two-stage Risk Control with Application to Ranked Retrievalcited by 6
- 2023Inference-time Stochastic Ranking with Risk Controlcited by 3
- 2025Assumption-free stability for ranking problemscited by 3
- 2025You Don't Bring Me Flowers: Mitigating Unwanted Recommendations Through Conformal Risk Controlcited by 3
- 2025Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Rankingcited by 2
- 2026Distribution-informed Efficient Conformal Prediction for Full Rankingcited by 0
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?cited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Userscited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users18 May 2026
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?10 Mar 2026
- 2026Distribution-informed Efficient Conformal Prediction for Full Ranking30 Jan 2026
- 2025You Don't Bring Me Flowers: Mitigating Unwanted Recommendations Through Conformal Risk Control9 Jul 2025
- 2025Assumption-free stability for ranking problems2 Jun 2025
- 2025Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Ranking20 Jan 2025
- 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective9 Oct 2024
- 2024Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classification1 May 2024
- 2024Two-stage Risk Control with Application to Ranked Retrieval27 Apr 2024
- 2023Inference-time Stochastic Ranking with Risk Control12 Jun 2023
- 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift8 Jun 2023
- 2022Conformal Risk Control4 Aug 2022