mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Conformalized Survival Analysis

arXiv 2103.09763 ↗First posted 17 Mar 2021stat.ME stat.MLcited by 53

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Abstract (arXiv)

Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which can wrap around any survival prediction algorithm to produce calibrated, covariate-dependent lower predictive bounds on survival times. In the Type I right-censoring setting, when the censoring times are completely exogenous, the lower predictive bounds have guaranteed coverage in finite samples without any assumptions other than that of operating on independent and identically distributed data points. Under a more general conditionally independent censoring assumption, the bounds satisfy a doubly robust property which states the following: marginal coverage is approximately guaranteed if either the censoring mechanism or the conditional survival function is estimated well. Further, we demonstrate that the lower predictive bounds remain valid and informative for other types of censoring. The validity and efficiency of our procedure are demonstrated on synthetic data and real COVID-19 data from the UK Biobank.

Key facts. Cited by 53 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 105 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 Mar 2021.

Builds on

18 of 105 references.

References · 18

  1. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  2. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  3. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 511
  4. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 390
  5. 2016DeepSurv: Personalized Treatment Recommender System Using A Cox Proportional Hazards Deep Neural Networkcited by 354
  6. 2016Generalized Random Forestscited by 309
  7. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
  8. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
  9. 2020Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effectscited by 150
  10. 2019Distributional conformal predictioncited by 104
  11. 2019Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methodscited by 88
  12. 2019A comparison of some conformal quantile regression methodscited by 76
6 more
  1. 2019With Malice Towards None: Assessing Uncertainty via Equalized Coveragecited by 43
  2. 2019Conformal prediction with localizationcited by 22
  3. 2020Knowing what you know: valid and validated confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel predictioncited by 9
  4. 2020Censored Quantile Regression Forestcited by 6
  5. 2019Contrast Trees and Distribution Boostingcited by 5
  6. 2016Program Evaluation with Right-Censored Datacited by 1

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 4; 2022: 11; 2023: 8; 2024: 13; 2025: 7; 2026: 10.

53 papers.

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  1. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 777
  2. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 360
  3. 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 290
  4. 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 256
  5. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 85
  6. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 76
  7. 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
  8. 2021PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shiftcited by 42
  9. 2022Predictive Inference with Feature Conformal Predictioncited by 33
  10. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  11. 2023Adaptive conformal classification with noisy labelscited by 24
  12. 2024An Information Theoretic Perspective on Conformal Predictioncited by 21
38 more
  1. 2022Split Localized Conformal Predictioncited by 20
  2. 2022Conformal Off-policy Predictioncited by 14
  3. 2023Conformal Prediction for Network-Assisted Regressioncited by 14
  4. 2022Recommendation Systems with Distribution-Free Reliability Guaranteescited by 13
  5. 2022Conformal Prediction Intervals for Markov Decision Process Trajectoriescited by 12
  6. 2023Wasserstein Generative Regressioncited by 12
  7. 2024Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Seriescited by 12
  8. 2022Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Surveycited by 11
  9. 2024Weighted Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Classificationcited by 11
  10. 2025Conformal Prediction under Levy-Prokhorov Distribution Shifts: Robustness to Local and Global Perturbationscited by 11
  11. 2022Conformal Frequency Estimation using Discrete Sketched Data with Coverage for Distinct Queriescited by 10
  12. 2024Conformalized Survival Distributions: A Generic Post-Process to Increase Calibrationcited by 10
  13. 2023SymmPI: Predictive Inference for Data with Group Symmetriescited by 8
  14. 2025Conformal Tail Risk Control for Large Language Model Alignmentcited by 8
  15. 2024Distribution-Free Conformal Joint Prediction Regions for Neural Marked Temporal Point Processescited by 7
  16. 2023Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precisioncited by 5
  17. 2024Toward Conditional Distribution Calibration in Survival Predictioncited by 5
  18. 2022Conformal Frequency Estimation with Sketched Datacited by 4
  19. 2022Distribution-Free Finite-Sample Guarantees and Split Conformal Predictioncited by 4
  20. 2023Distribution-Free Matrix Prediction Under Arbitrary Missing Patterncited by 4
  21. 2024Uncertainty quantification in metric spacescited by 3
  22. 2024Conformal time series decomposition with component-wise exchangeabilitycited by 3
  23. 2024JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-seriescited by 3
  24. 2024Distributionally robust risk evaluation with an isotonic constraintcited by 3
  25. 2025Calibrated Predictive Lower Bounds on Time-to-Unsafe-Sampling in LLMscited by 3
  26. 2025A note on conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language model routingcited by 3
  27. 2024Uncertainty Quantification With Multiple Sourcescited by 2
  28. 2025Conformal and kNN Predictive Uncertainty Quantification Algorithms in Metric Spacescited by 2
  29. 2026Conformal Bayes for Two-Sided Censored Gaussian Regression under Label Shiftcited by 2
  30. 2025Assessing the robustness of heterogeneous treatment effects in survival analysis under informative censoringcited by 1
  31. 2024A robust assessment for invariant representationscited by 0
  32. 2025Joint Registration and Conformal Prediction for Partially Observed Functional Datacited by 0
  33. 2026Questioning the Coverage-Length Metric in Conformal Prediction: When Shorter Intervals Are Not Bettercited by 0
  34. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  35. 2026Debiased Machine Learning for Conformal Prediction of Counterfactual Outcomes Under Runtime Confoundingcited by 0
  36. 2026Geometry of tail allocation in conformal prediction intervalscited by 0
  37. 2026Isotonic Survival Regression: Calibrated Survival Distributions from Deep Cox Modelscited by 0
  38. 2026Adaptive Experimentation for Censored Survival Outcomescited by 0

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