mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Decision Theory: Safe Autonomous Decisions from Imperfect Predictions

arXiv 2310.05921 ↗First posted 9 Oct 2023stat.ML cs.LG cs.ROcited by 50

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Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce Conformal Decision Theory, a framework for producing safe autonomous decisions despite imperfect machine learning predictions. Examples of such decisions are ubiquitous, from robot planning algorithms that rely on pedestrian predictions, to calibrating autonomous manufacturing to exhibit high throughput and low error, to the choice of trusting a nominal policy versus switching to a safe backup policy at run-time. The decisions produced by our algorithms are safe in the sense that they come with provable statistical guarantees of having low risk without any assumptions on the world model whatsoever; the observations need not be I.I.D. and can even be adversarial. The theory extends results from conformal prediction to calibrate decisions directly, without requiring the construction of prediction sets. Experiments demonstrate the utility of our approach in robot motion planning around humans, automated stock trading, and robot manufacturing.

Key facts. Cited by 50 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 31 of its 55 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2023.

Builds on

31 of 55 references.

References · 31

  1. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,448
  2. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,926
  3. 2019Introduction to Online Convex Optimizationcited by 803
  4. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  5. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 375
  6. 2023Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Plannerscited by 308
  7. 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 299
  8. 2017Dex-Net 2.0: Deep Learning to Plan Robust Grasps with Synthetic Point Clouds and Analytic Grasp Metricscited by 264
  9. 2015Structural-RNN: Deep Learning on Spatio-Temporal Graphscited by 234
  10. 2017Hamilton-Jacobi Reachability: A Brief Overview and Recent Advancescited by 201
  11. 2017Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowdscited by 186
  12. 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 161
19 more
  1. 2020Bayesian Neural Networks: An Introduction and Surveycited by 131
  2. 2022Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Predictioncited by 119
  3. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 88
  4. 2023The Safety Filter: A Unified View of Safety-Critical Control in Autonomous Systemscited by 88
  5. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 78
  6. 2022Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 65
  7. 2022Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agentscited by 53
  8. 2020Real-time Out-of-distribution Detection in Learning-Enabled Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 46
  9. 2021Sample-Efficient Safety Assurances using Conformal Predictioncited by 41
  10. 2022Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settingscited by 39
  11. 2023Object Pose Estimation with Statistical Guarantees: Conformal Keypoint Detection and Geometric Uncertainty Propagationcited by 33
  12. 2023Non-Exchangeable Conformal Risk Controlcited by 29
  13. 2022Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Banditscited by 25
  14. 2023Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Predictioncited by 25
  15. 2022Introduction to Online Controlcited by 19
  16. 2023Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPCcited by 14
  17. 2022Conformal Prediction Intervals for Markov Decision Process Trajectoriescited by 12
  18. 2020Reactive motion planning with probabilistic safety guaranteescited by 10
  19. 2023Scenario-Based Motion Planning with Bounded Probability of Collisioncited by 7

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 3; 2024: 10; 2025: 14; 2026: 23.

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  1. 2025Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agentscited by 40
  2. 2024Conformal Validity Guarantees Exist for Any Data Distribution (and How to Find Them)cited by 26
  3. 2023Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Controlcited by 20
  4. 2024Probabilistically Correct Language-based Multi-Robot Planning using Conformal Predictioncited by 18
  5. 2024Localized Adaptive Risk Controlcited by 17
  6. 2024Active, anytime-valid risk controlling prediction setscited by 14
  7. 2025The Relationship between No-Regret Learning and Online Conformal Predictioncited by 13
  8. 2025Conformal Risk Training: End-to-End Optimization of Conformal Risk Controlcited by 11
  9. 2024Human-AI Safety: A Descendant of Generative AI and Control Systems Safetycited by 7
  10. 2025Human-AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 7
  11. 2026CORA: Conformal Risk-Controlled Agents for Safeguarded Mobile GUI Automationcited by 7
  12. 2023Conformal Policy Learning for Sensorimotor Control Under Distribution Shiftscited by 6
38 more
  1. 2024Adapting Prediction Sets to Distribution Shifts Without Labelscited by 6
  2. 2026Conformal Policy Controlcited by 6
  3. 2024CUQDS: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift for Trajectory Predictioncited by 5
  4. 2025WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shiftscited by 5
  5. 2026ReconVLA: An Uncertainty-Guided and Failure-Aware Vision-Language-Action Framework for Robotic Controlcited by 5
  6. 2025SafePath: Conformal Prediction for Safe LLM-Based Autonomous Navigationcited by 4
  7. 2026Optimal Decision-Making Based on Prediction Setscited by 4
  8. 2023Learned, uncertainty-driven adaptive acquisition for photon-efficient scanning microscopycited by 3
  9. 2024Metric-Guided Conformal Bounds for Probabilistic Image Reconstructioncited by 3
  10. 2025Conformal Prediction in The Loop: A Feedback-Based Uncertainty Model for Trajectory Optimizationcited by 3
  11. 2026Multi-Round Human-AI Collaboration with User-Specified Requirementscited by 3
  12. 2024Uncertainty-Aware Deployment of Pre-trained Language-Conditioned Imitation Learning Policiescited by 2
  13. 2025Calibrated Multi-Level Quantile Forecastingcited by 2
  14. 2026Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inferencecited by 2
  15. 2026Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guaranteecited by 2
  16. 2024Data-Adaptive Tradeoffs among Multiple Risks in Distribution-Free Predictioncited by 1
  17. 2025Uncertainty Guarantees on Automated Precision Weeding using Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  18. 2025DoublyAware: Dual Planning and Policy Awareness for Temporal Difference Learning in Humanoid Locomotioncited by 1
  19. 2025Reliable Inference in Edge-Cloud Model Cascades via Conformal Alignmentcited by 1
  20. 2025Uncertainty-Calibrated Prediction of Randomly-Timed Biomarker Trajectories with Conformal Bandscited by 1
  21. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  22. 2026Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policiescited by 1
  23. 2026Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 1
  24. 2025QUTCC: Quantile Uncertainty Training and Conformal Calibration for Imaging Inverse Problemscited by 0
  25. 2025Learning to Navigate Under Imperfect Perception: Conformalised Segmentation for Safe Reinforcement Learningcited by 0
  26. 2026Distribution-Free Robust Predict-Then-Optimize in Function Spacescited by 0
  27. 2026Conformal Tradeoffs: Operational Profiles Beyond Coveragecited by 0
  28. 2026Safe Probabilistic Planning for Human-Robot Interaction using Conformal Risk Controlcited by 0
  29. 2026Calibrating Conservatism for Scalable Oversightcited by 0
  30. 2026Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guaranteescited by 0
  31. 2026CoCoNav: Conformal Control for Safe Robot Navigation in Crowdscited by 0
  32. 2026A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
  33. 2026Compact Visuotactile World Models for Lifting: Prediction, Reward Alignment, and Force Constraintscited by 0
  34. 2026Risk-Aware Online Conformal State Probingcited by 0
  35. 2026Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Loggingcited by 0
  36. 2026Threshold-Aware Conformal Routingcited by 0
  37. 2026Coverage You Can Steer: Online Conformal Calibration for RL-Driven Hardware-Aware NAScited by 0
  38. 2026Conformal Sequential Decision Making With Cost and Sublinear Policy Regret Guaranteescited by 0

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  1. 2026Conformal Constraint Tightening for Chance-Constrained Motion Planning with Unknown Dynamics ↗
  2. 2025Towards Generalizable Safety in Crowd Navigation via Conformal Uncertainty Handling
  3. 2023How Safe Am I Given What I See? Calibrated Prediction of Safety Chances for Image-Controlled Autonomy
  4. 2026When Environments Shift: Safe Planning with Generative Priors and Robust Conformal Prediction
  5. 2026Modeling Latent Disturbances for Robust Decision-Making in World Models
  6. 2026Agentic Harnesses: LLM-Driven Verification Layers for Robot Autonomy
  7. 2026When World Models Lie: Adaptive Safety Analysis Under Wrong Imaginations
  8. 2025Conformalized Non-uniform Sampling Strategies for Accelerated Sampling-based Motion Planning ↗