mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift

arXiv 2106.00170 ↗First posted 1 Jun 2021stat.ME cs.LG stat.MLcited by 360

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Abstract (arXiv)

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data points are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

Key facts. Cited by 360 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 14 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2021.

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14 of 34 references.

References · 14

  1. 2019Introduction to Online Convex Optimizationcited by 793
  2. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  3. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  4. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 511
  5. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 390
  6. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
  7. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
  8. 2020Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effectscited by 150
  9. 2019Self-Driving Cars: A Surveycited by 147
  10. 2020Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shiftcited by 82
  11. 2019Adaptive, Distribution-Free Prediction Intervals for Deep Networkscited by 56
  12. 2021Conformalized Survival Analysiscited by 53
2 more
  1. 2021Learning Prediction Intervals for Regression: Generalization and Calibrationcited by 16
  2. 2020Conformal prediction intervals for the individual treatment effectcited by 10

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 4; 2022: 27; 2023: 35; 2024: 71; 2025: 86; 2026: 137.

360 papers.

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  1. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 777
  2. 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 290
  3. 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 256
  4. 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 155
  5. 2022Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shiftscited by 123
  6. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 85
  7. 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
  8. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 76
  9. 2025SAFE: Multitask Failure Detection for Vision-Language-Action Modelscited by 74
  10. 2022Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Seriescited by 71
  11. 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
  12. 2022Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 65
38 more
  1. 2022Conformal Prediction Under Feedback Covariate Shift for Biomolecular Designcited by 53
  2. 2024Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizescited by 53
  3. 2022RankFeat: Rank-1 Feature Removal for Out-of-distribution Detectioncited by 52
  4. 2024Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Surveycited by 52
  5. 2023Conformal Decision Theory: Safe Autonomous Decisions from Imperfect Predictionscited by 46
  6. 2021PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shiftcited by 42
  7. 2023High-Dimensional Prediction for Sequential Decision Makingcited by 41
  8. 2023Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networkscited by 40
  9. 2022Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settingscited by 38
  10. 2024Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal setscited by 37
  11. 2022Identifying Weight-Variant Latent Causal Modelscited by 33
  12. 2022Predictive Inference with Feature Conformal Predictioncited by 33
  13. 2023Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programmingcited by 33
  14. 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shiftcited by 29
  15. 2023Non-Exchangeable Conformal Risk Controlcited by 29
  16. 2022Distribution Free Prediction Sets for Node Classificationcited by 28
  17. 2022Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecastingcited by 28
  18. 2023Designing Decision Support Systems Using Counterfactual Prediction Setscited by 26
  19. 2024Conformal Validity Guarantees Exist for Any Data Distribution (and How to Find Them)cited by 26
  20. 2022Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustmentscited by 25
  21. 2023Probabilistically robust conformal predictioncited by 25
  22. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  23. 2023Adaptive conformal classification with noisy labelscited by 24
  24. 2023Conformal Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effectscited by 23
  25. 2022Split Localized Conformal Predictioncited by 20
  26. 2023Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Controlcited by 19
  27. 2024Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatmentscited by 19
  28. 2024Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibrationcited by 18
  29. 2022MAPIE: an open-source library for distribution-free uncertainty quantificationcited by 17
  30. 2023Prompt Risk Control: A Rigorous Framework for Responsible Deployment of Large Language Modelscited by 17
  31. 2022PAC Prediction Sets for Meta-Learningcited by 16
  32. 2024Localized Adaptive Risk Controlcited by 16
  33. 2023Selective Generation for Controllable Language Modelscited by 15
  34. 2023Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learningcited by 14
  35. 2024Active, anytime-valid risk controlling prediction setscited by 14
  36. 2025Wasserstein-regularized Conformal Prediction under General Distribution Shiftcited by 14
  37. 2022Recommendation Systems with Distribution-Free Reliability Guaranteescited by 13
  38. 2025The Relationship between No-Regret Learning and Online Conformal Predictioncited by 13

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