ConformalGuard: False-Positive-Controlled Action Gating for LM Classifiers

Language model classifiers are increasingly deployed for high-stakes decisions such as phishing screening, content moderation, and fraud triage, yet validation-set thresholds provide no finite-sample control of deployment-time false positives. We present ConformalGuard, a model-agnostic calibration layer that wraps a fixed scoring function with finite-sample control over the rate at which legitimate inputs trigger an intervention tier. Our contribution is empirical and operational, not a new conformal theorem: zero-shot LM API scores can be coarse enough (10--11 unique values here) to make temperature scaling and isotonic regression operationally identical to raw thresholding for low-FPR action gating. We compare these methods with conformal calibration for fine-tuned BERT, Claude Sonnet 4, and GPT-4o on public email corpora. For Claude, conformal calibration reduces FPR from 0.040 to 0.008 while recall falls from 0.938 to 0.875. For deterministic GPT-4o scores, the 1% operating point is too conservative to deploy (recall 0.564); three-run stochastic averaging raises recall to 0.732 at FPR 0.005. At 2% prevalence with BERT, conformal calibration removes 25 false-positive reviews per 10,000 emails (95% CI [10, 43]). The guarantee is legitimate-event-rate control under exchangeability; discrimination, workload effects, and robustness to shift remain empirical.