mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective

arXiv 2410.06494 ↗First posted 9 Oct 2024cs.LGcited by 25

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified probability. However, modern data science diverse modalities, along with increasing data and model complexity, challenge traditional CP methods. These developments have spurred novel approaches to address evolving scenarios. This survey reviews the foundational concepts of CP and recent advancements from a data-centric perspective, including applications to structured, unstructured, and dynamic data. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities CP faces in large-scale data and models.

Key facts. Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 154 of its 214 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2024.

Builds on

154 of 214 references.

References · 154

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2021Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervisioncited by 33,744
  3. 2017Billion-scale similarity search with GPUscited by 2,497
  4. 2020LightGCN: Simplifying and Powering Graph Convolution Network for Recommendationcited by 1,139
  5. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  6. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 668
  7. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 629
  8. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 519
  9. 2017Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learningcited by 478
  10. 2020Hopfield Networks is All You Needcited by 475
  11. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 396
  12. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 375
38 more
  1. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 366
  2. 2022Conformal prediction beyond exchangeabilitycited by 355
  3. 2022Confident Adaptive Language Modelingcited by 310
  4. 2022Conformal Risk Controlcited by 299
  5. 2021Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Setscited by 288
  6. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 272
  7. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 211
  8. 2023Conformal Language Modelingcited by 170
  9. 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 161
  10. 2020Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effectscited by 151
  11. 2023Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answeringcited by 139
  12. 2024Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guaranteescited by 131
  13. 2022Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shiftscited by 128
  14. 2024Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 126
  15. 2022Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Predictioncited by 119
  16. 2020Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challengescited by 118
  17. 2021Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework for Conformal Predictioncited by 114
  18. 2023Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classescited by 109
  19. 2022Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imagingcited by 107
  20. 2019Distributional conformal predictioncited by 105
  21. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 88
  22. 2013A Conformal Prediction Approach to Explore Functional Datacited by 86
  23. 2020Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shiftcited by 82
  24. 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
  25. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 78
  26. 2019A comparison of some conformal quantile regression methodscited by 76
  27. 2022Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Seriescited by 75
  28. 2021Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imagingcited by 74
  29. 2024API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Accesscited by 69
  30. 2018Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Methods for Predictive Machine Learning With Dependent Datacited by 66
  31. 2021Cross-validation: what does it estimate and how well does it do it?cited by 65
  32. 2022Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 65
  33. 2022Training Uncertainty-Aware Classifiers with Conformalized Deep Learningcited by 64
  34. 2021Sensitivity Analysis of Individual Treatment Effects: A Robust Conformal Inference Approachcited by 62
  35. 2019PAC Confidence Sets for Deep Neural Networks via Calibrated Predictioncited by 60
  36. 2024Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizescited by 56
  37. 2022Conformal Prediction Under Feedback Covariate Shift for Biomolecular Designcited by 54
  38. 2024Conformal Alignment: Knowing When to Trust Foundation Models with Guaranteescited by 54

50 most cited of 154 All 154 (JSON)

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 12; 2026: 13.

25 papers.

Sort:

  1. 2025Multivariate Standardized Residuals for Conformal Predictioncited by 6
  2. 2025Extreme Conformal Prediction: Reliable Intervals for High-Impact Eventscited by 5
  3. 2025WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shiftscited by 5
  4. 2026Set-Valued Prediction for Large Language Models with Feasibility-Aware Coverage Guaranteescited by 4
  5. 2025Towards Reliable and Holistic Visual In-Context Learning Prompt Selectioncited by 2
  6. 2025Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Time Series Forecastingcited by 1
  7. 2025Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusalcited by 1
  8. 2025Efficient Conformal Prediction for Regression Models under Label Noisecited by 1
  9. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  10. 2025Aerial Image Classification in Scarce and Unconstrained Environments via Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  11. 2025Trustworthy Prediction with Gaussian Process Knowledge Scorescited by 0
  12. 2025Effect of Data Augmentation on Conformal Prediction for Diabetic Retinopathycited by 0
13 more
  1. 2025Q-Sat AI: Machine Learning-Based Decision Support for Data Saturation in Qualitative Studiescited by 0
  2. 2025Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive and Valid Mask-Conditional Coverage for General Missing Data Mechanismscited by 0
  3. 2026Communication-Efficient Byzantine-Robust Federated Conformal Prediction via Partial Sharingcited by 0
  4. 2026LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Treescited by 0
  5. 2026Beyond Accuracy: Reliability and Uncertainty Estimation in Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 0
  6. 2026ARTEMIS: A Neuro Symbolic Framework for Economically Constrained Market Dynamicscited by 0
  7. 2026Stable Localized Conformal Prediction via Transductioncited by 0
  8. 2026Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Reliable and Explainable Medical Image Classificationcited by 0
  9. 2026Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagationcited by 0
  10. 2026Coordinate Singularities Break Conformal Coverage for Gaze and Head Posecited by 0
  11. 2026A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
  12. 2026Can VLMs Reliably Assess Sidewalk Accessibility Attributes from Pedestrian-Level Imagery?cited by 0
  13. 2026Multivariate conformal uncertainty propagation in multitask atomistic simulation: Successes and pitfallscited by 0