mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks

arXiv 2303.12783 ↗First posted 22 Mar 2023cs.LG cs.AI stat.MLcited by 42

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Abstract (arXiv)

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

Key facts. Cited by 42 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 32 of its 83 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Mar 2023.

Builds on

32 of 83 references.

References · 32

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2019PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Librarycited by 20,305
  3. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,448
  4. 2017DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networkscited by 1,013
  5. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  6. 2019N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecastingcited by 753
  7. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 519
  8. 2020Hopfield Networks is All You Needcited by 475
  9. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 375
  10. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 366
  11. 2022Conformal prediction beyond exchangeabilitycited by 355
  12. 2016Dense Associative Memory for Pattern Recognitioncited by 236
20 more
  1. 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 161
  2. 2020Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challengescited by 118
  3. 2021Darts: User-Friendly Modern Machine Learning for Time Seriescited by 91
  4. 2021CLOOB: Modern Hopfield Networks with InfoLOOB Outperform CLIPcited by 89
  5. 2022Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Seriescited by 75
  6. 2019Towards Learning Universal, Regional, and Local Hydrological Behaviors via Machine-Learning Applied to Large-Sample Datasetscited by 69
  7. 2020Modern Hopfield Networks and Attention for Immune Repertoire Classificationcited by 53
  8. 2020Conformal prediction for time seriescited by 53
  9. 2017Deep and Confident Prediction for Time Series at Ubercited by 50
  10. 2022History Compression via Language Models in Reinforcement Learningcited by 39
  11. 2022Predictive Inference with Feature Conformal Predictioncited by 34
  12. 2022Txt2Img-MHN: Remote Sensing Image Generation from Text Using Modern Hopfield Networkscited by 30
  13. 2022Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecastingcited by 29
  14. 2022Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecastingcited by 27
  15. 2022Hopular: Modern Hopfield Networks for Tabular Datacited by 18
  16. 2020Time series forecasting with Gaussian Processes needs priorscited by 13
  17. 2020Uncertainty Estimation with Deep Learning for Rainfall-Runoff Modellingcited by 9
  18. 2022Conformal prediction set for time-seriescited by 5
  19. 2021Modeling Regime Shifts in Multiple Time Seriescited by 2
  20. 2023Adaptive Sampling for Probabilistic Forecasting under Distribution Shiftcited by 2

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 2; 2024: 14; 2025: 15; 2026: 11.

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  1. 2023Conformal PID Control for Time Series Predictioncited by 88
  2. 2024Uniform Memory Retrieval with Larger Capacity for Modern Hopfield Modelscited by 38
  3. 2024Outlier-Efficient Hopfield Layers for Large Transformer-Based Modelscited by 38
  4. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  5. 2024BiSHop: Bi-Directional Cellular Learning for Tabular Data with Generalized Sparse Modern Hopfield Modelcited by 21
  6. 2024Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Setscited by 20
  7. 2024Conv-CoA: Improving Open-domain Question Answering in Large Language Models via Conversational Chain-of-Actioncited by 19
  8. 2024Provably Optimal Memory Capacity for Modern Hopfield Models: Transformer-Compatible Dense Associative Memories as Spherical Codescited by 19
  9. 2024Nonparametric Modern Hopfield Modelscited by 16
  10. 2024Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Predictioncited by 15
  11. 2025Relational Conformal Prediction for Correlated Time Seriescited by 11
  12. 2024Energy-based Hopfield Boosting for Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 9
30 more
  1. 2023Bridging Dimensions: Confident Reachability for High-Dimensional Controllerscited by 5
  2. 2025Flow-based Conformal Prediction for Multi-dimensional Time Seriescited by 5
  3. 2025Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Pointscited by 5
  4. 2025ResCP: Reservoir Conformal Prediction for Time Series Forecastingcited by 5
  5. 2024Provably Reliable Conformal Prediction Sets in the Presence of Data Poisoningcited by 4
  6. 2025Unveiling the Potential of Text in High-Dimensional Time Series Forecastingcited by 4
  7. 2024CoRMF: Criticality-Ordered Recurrent Mean Field Ising Solvercited by 3
  8. 2024Conformal time series decomposition with component-wise exchangeabilitycited by 3
  9. 2025HopCast: Calibration of Autoregressive Dynamics Modelscited by 3
  10. 2025Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Conformal Predictioncited by 3
  11. 2025Conformal Prediction in The Loop: A Feedback-Based Uncertainty Model for Trajectory Optimizationcited by 3
  12. 2025Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Predictioncited by 2
  13. 2025A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Time Series Forecastingcited by 2
  14. 2025Distribution-informed Online Conformal Predictioncited by 2
  15. 2026Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Seriescited by 2
  16. 2025Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Time Series Forecastingcited by 1
  17. 2025A Systematic Review of Conformal Inference Procedures for Treatment Effect Estimation: Methods and Challengescited by 1
  18. 2026AP-OOD: Attention Pooling for Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 1
  19. 2026RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  20. 2024Enhancing reliability in prediction intervals using point forecasters: Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression and Width-Adaptive Conformal Inferencecited by 0
  21. 2025Feature Fitted Online Conformal Prediction for Deep Time Series Forecasting Modelcited by 0
  22. 2025Attention-Based Feature Online Conformal Prediction for Time Seriescited by 0
  23. 2026Bounded-Abstention Multi-horizon Time-series Forecastingcited by 0
  24. 2026Delving into Non-Exchangeability for Conformal Prediction in Graph-Structured Multivariate Time Seriescited by 0
  25. 2026Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Datacited by 0
  26. 2026DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  27. 2026ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecastingcited by 0
  28. 2026Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Seriescited by 0
  29. 2026Active Adversarial Perturbation-driven Associative Memory Retrieval for RGB-Event Visual Object Trackingcited by 0
  30. 2026State-Matched Sequence Conformal Predictioncited by 0