Rescene: band-limited stochastic forcing turns a frozen neural weather operator into a climate emulator
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Abstract (arXiv)
Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES). However, when these models are integrated freely beyond the horizon they were trained for, they blow up, drift, or lose their seasonal cycle, and retraining them for stability is expensive. We therefore ask what can be recovered from a strictly frozen backbone. We present Rescene, a 0.4 M-parameter wrapper around a frozen 1.5 degree, 6-hourly vision-transformer operator, developed using ERA5 reanalysis data and comprising a deterministic "slow clock" (0.33 M) that blends the forecast toward a lead-aware day-of-year climatology and a generative head (0.06 M) that adds a spectrally shaped stochastic perturbation at every step. The performance evaluation demonstrates that the deterministic wrapper alone is stable for decades but collapses daily variability to 40% of ERA5. Adding the generative head restores 126% (Z500) and 130% (MSLP) of the observed daily variability with pattern correlations of 0.89 and 0.92, recovers 82% of the observed blocking frequency, keeps the ensemble calibrated (spread-skill ratio 0.78-0.97 from day 7 to day 90), and integrates for 100 years with no detectable drift (+0.008 +/- 0.014 K per century). Moreover, because the perturbation is band-limited to total wavenumber k ≤ 20, the small scales are never forced, yet realistic k ≥ 20 power is sustained: a direct decomposition of the 6-hourly energy budget shows that the frozen operator supplies 28 times more energy than the perturbation at k ≥ 40, with a fractional growth rate 247 times larger at the grid scale than at planetary scales.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 54 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 30 Jul 2026.
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References · 24
- 2022FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 776
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12 more
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- 2022Long-term stability and generalization of observationally-constrained stochastic data-driven models for geophysical turbulencecited by 8
- 2025A multi-scale loss formulation for learning a probabilistic model with proper score optimisationcited by 6
- 2026Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rolloutscited by 4
- 2025ArchesClimate: Probabilistic Decadal Ensemble Generation With Flow Matchingcited by 3
- 2025Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layerscited by 3
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- 2026Sonny: Breaking the Compute Wall in Medium-Range Weather Forecastingcited by 2
- 2025DEF: Diffusion-augmented Ensemble Forecastingcited by 1
- 2026Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulationscited by 1
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