mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Diffusion Distillation for Efficient Weather Ensembles

arXiv 2608.27728 ↗First posted 27 Aug 2026cs.LG stat.APcited by 0

On the map: Diffusion models → Flow matching, time series and science

Abstract (arXiv)

Diffusion models generate skillful weather ensembles but require costly iterative sampling. We introduce a supervised energy-distance distillation method that compresses a multi-step diffusion teacher into a single-step student by aligning student forecasts with teacher samples and ground-truth observations. Experiments on global forecasting and typhoon-track prediction show that our student outperforms existing distillation methods and preserves skill for extreme events. It matches or surpasses the teacher across key metrics using only one neural function evaluation per autoregressive step.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 33 of its 54 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 27 Aug 2026.

Builds on

33 of 54 references.

Closest ancestors · 2

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecasting30 Sep
  2. 2025Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamics24 Jun

Other references · 31

  1. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 21,076
  2. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 9,122
  3. 2022Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Modelscited by 3,045
  4. 2023Consistency Modelscited by 1,822
  5. 2023ProlificDreamer: High-Fidelity and Diverse Text-to-3D Generation with Variational Score Distillationcited by 1,219
  6. 2023One-step Diffusion with Distribution Matching Distillationcited by 1,019
  7. 2022DPM-Solver++: Fast Solver for Guided Sampling of Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 938
  8. 2022On Distillation of Guided Diffusion Modelscited by 725
  9. 2024Improved Distribution Matching Distillation for Fast Image Synthesiscited by 684
  10. 2023Consistency Trajectory Models: Learning Probability Flow ODE Trajectory of Diffusioncited by 459
  11. 2024Simplifying, Stabilizing and Scaling Continuous-Time Consistency Modelscited by 283
  12. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 241
19 more
  1. 2023Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climatecited by 239
  2. 2023Diff-Instruct: A Universal Approach for Transferring Knowledge From Pre-trained Diffusion Modelscited by 236
  3. 2023WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather modelscited by 236
  4. 2024Score identity Distillation: Exponentially Fast Distillation of Pretrained Diffusion Models for One-Step Generationcited by 214
  5. 2022FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 188
  6. 2025Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginalscited by 63
  7. 2025FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scalecited by 62
  8. 2023Training neural operators to preserve invariant measures of chaotic attractorscited by 46
  9. 2025One-step Diffusion Models with f-Divergence Distribution Matchingcited by 43
  10. 2021Learning Dissipative Dynamics in Chaotic Systemscited by 42
  11. 2020Learning Variational Data Assimilation Models and Solverscited by 36
  12. 2022Generalised Latent Assimilation in Heterogeneous Reduced Spaces with Machine Learning Surrogate Modelscited by 26
  13. 2025Distributional Diffusion Models with Scoring Rulescited by 25
  14. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  15. 2024Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observationscited by 18
  16. 2025Uni-Instruct: One-step Diffusion Model through Unified Diffusion Divergence Instructioncited by 13
  17. 2025DiffRatio: Training One-Step Diffusion Models Without Teacher Supervisioncited by 9
  18. 2025Tensor-Var: Efficient Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilationcited by 4
  19. 2025Information Shapes Koopman Representationcited by 4

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  5. 2026Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
  6. 2025DEF: Diffusion-augmented Ensemble Forecasting
  7. 2026PuYun-LDM: A Latent Diffusion Model for High-Resolution Ensemble Weather Forecasts
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