mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Can Deep Generative Models Reproduce Non-Stationary Gaussian Random Fields?

arXiv 2607.25929 ↗First posted 28 Jul 2026stat.ML cs.LGcited by 0

On the map: Diffusion models → Flow matching, time series and science

Abstract (arXiv)

Deep generative models (DGMs) are widely used for complex high-dimensional data and increasingly applied to spatial and spatio-temporal modeling. Their generated samples implicitly represent the learned data distribution and associated uncertainty. However, for real-world data, assessing whether DGMs have learned the underlying process is difficult because the ground truth is unknown and evaluation often relies on observations alone. We evaluate representative DGMs, flow matching (FM), DDPM, score-SDE, and VAE, on a known non-stationary Gaussian random field. This paper provides comprehensive metrics to assess recovery of the ground-truth mean and covariance structures, with oracle samples and a stationary control as references. All four models recover the mean surface, while their covariance recovery differs across model families: DDPM and score-SDE recover the covariance structure reasonably well, FM exhibits mildly attenuated non-stationarity and slight variance under-dispersion, and VAE has difficulty recovering the covariance structure. An experiment on ERA5 temperature anomalies further demonstrates how the framework can support the validation and development of DGMs for complex real-world spatio-temporal data.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 14 of its 38 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Jul 2026.

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14 of 38 references.

Closest ancestors · 3

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025Neural Conditional Simulation for Complex Spatial Processes27 Aug
  2. 2025Predictive posterior sampling from non-stationnary Gaussian process priors via Diffusion models with application to climate data23 May
  3. 2023Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling24 Sep

Other references · 11

  1. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
  2. 2020Denoising Diffusion Implicit Modelscited by 9,655
  3. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 8,964
  4. 2021Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 3,736
  5. 2023WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather modelscited by 227
  6. 2019Convolutional Conditional Neural Processescited by 139
  7. 2025An Analytical Theory of Spectral Bias in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Modelscited by 26
  8. 2024Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather modelscited by 24
  9. 2016Review: Nonstationary Spatial Modeling, with Emphasis on Process Convolution and Covariate-Driven Approachescited by 7
  10. 2013Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histogramscited by 6
  11. 2023Which Parameterization of the Mat'ern Covariance Function?cited by 3

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  6. 2026Benchmarking Generative Models for Weather Data Assimilation on Real Station Observations
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