mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models

arXiv 2410.05431 ↗First posted 7 Oct 2024cs.LG physics.ao-phcited by 27

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Abstract (arXiv)

Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble forecasts. These models are trained on a single forecasting step and rolled out autoregressively. However, they are computationally expensive and accumulate errors for high temporal resolution due to the many rollout steps. We address these limitations with Continuous Ensemble Forecasting, a novel and flexible method for sampling ensemble forecasts in diffusion models. The method can generate temporally consistent ensemble trajectories completely in parallel, with no autoregressive steps. Continuous Ensemble Forecasting can also be combined with autoregressive rollouts to yield forecasts at an arbitrary fine temporal resolution without sacrificing accuracy. We demonstrate that the method achieves competitive results for global weather forecasting with good probabilistic properties.

Key facts. Cited by 27 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 31 of its 55 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Oct 2024.

Builds on

31 of 55 references.

References · 31

  1. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
  2. 2020Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 8,964
  3. 2016SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restartscited by 4,993
  4. 2022Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Modelscited by 2,994
  5. 2017Decoupled Weight Decay Regularizationcited by 1,722
  6. 2022Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolantscited by 964
  7. 2018Lipschitz regularity of deep neural networks: analysis and efficient estimationcited by 413
  8. 2019Sliced Score Matching: A Scalable Approach to Density and Score Estimationcited by 381
  9. 2023ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climatecited by 325
  10. 2020WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecastingcited by 272
  11. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 237
  12. 2023Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climatecited by 232
19 more
  1. 2023PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solverscited by 205
  2. 2022FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operatorscited by 188
  3. 2023Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecastingcited by 106
  4. 2023DYffusion: A Dynamics-informed Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Forecastingcited by 105
  5. 2023Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscalingcited by 103
  6. 2024ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEscited by 78
  7. 2021Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction modelscited by 76
  8. 2024A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Datacited by 66
  9. 2023Benchmarking Autoregressive Conditional Diffusion Models for Turbulent Flow Simulationcited by 65
  10. 2023SwinRDM: Integrate SwinRNN with Diffusion Model towards High-Resolution and High-Quality Weather Forecastingcited by 32
  11. 2024Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modelingcited by 32
  12. 2022SwinVRNN: A Data-Driven Ensemble Forecasting Model via Learned Distribution Perturbationcited by 31
  13. 2023A Denoising Diffusion Model for Fluid Field Predictioncited by 31
  14. 2024Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networkscited by 29
  15. 2024Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusioncited by 21
  16. 2024FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecastingcited by 13
  17. 2024Weather Prediction with Diffusion Guided by Realistic Forecast Processescited by 10
  18. 2023DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Earth System Models with Diffusion Modelscited by 9
  19. 2024STC-ViT: Spatio Temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for Medium-range Global Weather Forecastingcited by 3

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 12; 2026: 14.

27 papers.

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  1. 2025FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scalecited by 56
  2. 2025On the Guidance of Flow Matchingcited by 44
  3. 2025Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Surveycited by 15
  4. 2025Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamicscited by 12
  5. 2025Diffusion-LAM: Probabilistic Limited Area Weather Forecasting with Diffusioncited by 11
  6. 2026U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecastercited by 10
  7. 2025Multimodal Atmospheric Super-Resolution With Deep Generative Modelscited by 8
  8. 2026Flow Learners for PDEs: Toward a Physics-to-Physics Paradigm for Scientific Computingcited by 4
  9. 2025Generating ensembles of spatially-coherent in-situ forecasts using flow matchingcited by 3
  10. 2025DAISI: Data Assimilation with Inverse Sampling using Stochastic Interpolantscited by 3
  11. 2026Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic Weather Forecastingcited by 3
  12. 2024Flow Matching Posterior Sampling: A Training-free Conditional Generation for Flow Matchingcited by 2
15 more
  1. 2025A Malliavin-Gamma calculus approach to Score Based Diffusion Generative models for random fieldscited by 2
  2. 2025Data-Efficient Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion Modelscited by 1
  3. 2025Graph-based Neural Space Weather Forecastingcited by 1
  4. 2026SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerlandcited by 1
  5. 2025KunPeng: A Global Ocean Environmental Modelcited by 0
  6. 2026Deterministic and probabilistic neural surrogates of global hybrid-Vlasov simulationscited by 0
  7. 2026Native Extrapolation Awareness in Flow-Based Conditional Generationcited by 0
  8. 2026Physics-Informed Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Extreme Rare Weather Events Datacited by 0
  9. 2026A Diffusion-Contrastive Graph Neural Network with Virtual Nodes for Wind Nowcasting in Unobserved Regionscited by 0
  10. 2026Earth Science Foundation Models: From Perception to Reasoning and Discoverycited by 0
  11. 2026RealBench: Benchmarking Data-Driven Numerical Weather Forecasting Under Operational Conditions and Extreme Event Challengescited by 0
  12. 2026DiffUNet^2: Bidirectional Conditional Diffusion for Probabilistic Scientific Spatiotemporal Modelingcited by 0
  13. 2026Geospatial Diffusion-based Evolution Synthesis (GeoDES) for Storm-Centered Weather Augmentationcited by 0
  14. 2026FLARE: Flow Matching with Local Axis-Angle Representations for Stochastic Micromagnetic Evolutioncited by 0
  15. 2026Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecastingcited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecasting
  2. 2025DEF: Diffusion-augmented Ensemble Forecasting
  3. 2025LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting
  4. 2024CoDiCast: Conditional Diffusion Model for Global Weather Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification
  5. 2023SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models
  6. 2026PuYun-LDM: A Latent Diffusion Model for High-Resolution Ensemble Weather Forecasts
  7. 2026Diffusion Distillation for Efficient Weather Ensembles
  8. 2026Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?