A Review and Comparative Study on Probabilistic Object Detection in Autonomous Driving
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Abstract (arXiv)
Capturing uncertainty in object detection is indispensable for safe autonomous driving. In recent years, deep learning has become the de-facto approach for object detection, and many probabilistic object detectors have been proposed. However, there is no summary on uncertainty estimation in deep object detection, and existing methods are not only built with different network architectures and uncertainty estimation methods, but also evaluated on different datasets with a wide range of evaluation metrics. As a result, a comparison among methods remains challenging, as does the selection of a model that best suits a particular application. This paper aims to alleviate this problem by providing a review and comparative study on existing probabilistic object detection methods for autonomous driving applications. First, we provide an overview of generic uncertainty estimation in deep learning, and then systematically survey existing methods and evaluation metrics for probabilistic object detection. Next, we present a strict comparative study for probabilistic object detection based on an image detector and three public autonomous driving datasets. Finally, we present a discussion of the remaining challenges and future works. Code has been made available at https://github.com/asharakeh/pod_compare.git
Key facts. Cited by 115 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 20 Nov 2020.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 8; 2022: 16; 2023: 28; 2024: 30; 2025: 23; 2026: 10.
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- 2023Milestones in Autonomous Driving and Intelligent Vehicles: Survey of Surveyscited by 75
- 2024Explainable AI for Safe and Trustworthy Autonomous Driving: A Systematic Reviewcited by 52
- 2022Benchmarking Bayesian Deep Learning on Diabetic Retinopathy Detection Taskscited by 49
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- 2022Domain Adaptive Object Detection for Autonomous Driving under Foggy Weathercited by 41
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- 2021Uncertainty for Identifying Open-Set Errors in Visual Object Detectioncited by 26
- 2023Choose Your Simulator Wisely: A Review on Open-source Simulators for Autonomous Drivingcited by 26
- 2024Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Predictioncited by 23
- 2023Confident Object Detection via Conformal Prediction and Conformal Risk Control: an Application to Railway Signalingcited by 22
- 2021Injecting Planning-Awareness into Prediction and Detection Evaluationcited by 21
- 2021Monte Carlo DropBlock for Modelling Uncertainty in Object Detectioncited by 20
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- 2025MiLA: Multi-view Intensive-fidelity Long-term Video Generation World Model for Autonomous Drivingcited by 18
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- 2021Rethinking Trajectory Forecasting Evaluationcited by 11
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- 2022SOTIF Entropy: Online SOTIF Risk Quantification and Mitigation for Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
- 2023Overcoming the Limitations of Localization Uncertainty: Efficient & Exact Non-Linear Post-Processing and Calibrationcited by 5
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- 2021Exploring the Limits of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification in Low-Shot Settingscited by 4
- 2022Robust Perception Architecture Design for Automotive Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 4
50 most cited of 115 All 115 (JSON)
- 2026Rethinking Detection Calibration: A Coordinate and Direction Perspective31 Jul 2026
- 2026PhaseWin: An Efficient Search Algorithm for Faithful Visual Attribution16 Jun 2026
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- 2026Probabilistic Object Detection with Conformal Prediction8 May 2026
- 2026Query2Uncertainty: Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration for 3D Object Detection under Distribution Shift6 May 2026
- 2026Recipes for Calibration Checks in Safety-Critical Applications29 Apr 2026
- 2026Confidence Calibration under Ambiguous Ground Truth24 Mar 2026
- 2026Seeing Roads Through Words: A Language-Guided Framework for RGB-T Driving Scene Segmentation7 Feb 2026
- 2026BadDet+: Robust Backdoor Attacks for Object Detection28 Jan 2026
- 2025Representation Space Constrained Learning with Modality Decoupling for Multimodal Object Detection19 Nov 2025
- 2025CoDS: Enhancing Collaborative Perception in Heterogeneous Scenarios via Domain Separation15 Oct 2025
38 more
- 2025Calibrating the Full Predictive Class Distribution of 3D Object Detectors for Autonomous Driving2 Oct 2025
- 2025Cumulative Consensus Score: Label-Free and Model-Agnostic Evaluation of Object Detectors in Deployment16 Sep 2025
- 2025Enabling Federated Object Detection for Connected Autonomous Vehicles: A Deployment-Oriented Evaluation2 Sep 2025
- 2025Towards Powerful and Practical Patch Attacks for 2D Object Detection in Autonomous Driving14 Aug 2025
- 2025Calibration Attention: Learning Reliability-Aware Representations for Vision Transformers12 Aug 2025
- 2025De-Simplifying Pseudo Labels to Enhancing Domain Adaptive Object Detection1 Jul 2025
- 2025Deterministic Object Pose Confidence Region Estimation28 Jun 2025
- 2025Conformal Object Detection by Sequential Risk Control29 May 2025
- 2025Improving Object Detection Performance through YOLOv8: A Comprehensive Training and Evaluation Study16 May 2025
- 2025Impact Analysis of Inference Time Attack of Perception Sensors on Autonomous Vehicles5 May 2025
- 2025A Decade of You Only Look Once (YOLO) for Object Detection: A Review24 Apr 2025
- 2025A Review of YOLOv12: Attention-Based Enhancements vs. Previous Versions16 Apr 2025
- 2025NeuRadar: Neural Radiance Fields for Automotive Radar Point Clouds1 Apr 2025
- 2025MiLA: Multi-view Intensive-fidelity Long-term Video Generation World Model for Autonomous Driving20 Mar 2025
- 2025OCCUQ: Exploring Efficient Uncertainty Quantification for 3D Occupancy Prediction13 Mar 2025
- 2025PostHoc FREE Calibrating on Kolmogorov Arnold Networks3 Mar 2025
- 2025Bayesian Approximation-Based Trajectory Prediction and Tracking with 4D Radar3 Feb 2025
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- 2025Constrained Hybrid Metaheuristic Algorithm for Probabilistic Neural Networks Learning26 Jan 2025
- 2025Wasserstein-regularized Conformal Prediction under General Distribution Shift23 Jan 2025
- 2025Leveraging Confident Image Regions for Source-Free Domain-Adaptive Object Detection17 Jan 2025
- 2024DrIFT: Autonomous Drone Dataset with Integrated Real and Synthetic Data, Flexible Views, and Transformed Domains6 Dec 2024
- 2024Optimizing Multispectral Object Detection: A Bag of Tricks and Comprehensive Benchmarks27 Nov 2024
- 2024Interpreting Object-level Foundation Models via Visual Precision Search25 Nov 2024
- 2024OCDet: Object Center Detection via Bounding Box-Aware Heatmap Prediction on Edge Devices with NPUs23 Nov 2024
- 2024YOLO Evolution: A Comprehensive Benchmark and Architectural Review of YOLOv12, YOLO11, and Their Previous Versions31 Oct 2024
- 2024An Efficient Approach to Generate Safe Drivable Space by LiDAR-Camera-HDmap Fusion29 Oct 2024
- 2024Radar and Camera Fusion for Object Detection and Tracking: A Comprehensive Survey24 Oct 2024
- 2024Cocoon: Robust Multi-Modal Perception with Uncertainty-Aware Sensor Fusion16 Oct 2024
- 2024Building Real-time Awareness of Out-of-distribution in Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles25 Sep 2024
- 2024Prediction Accuracy & Reliability: Classification and Object Localization under Distribution Shift5 Sep 2024
- 2024UTrack: Multi-Object Tracking with Uncertain Detections30 Aug 2024
- 2024Convolutional Neural Network Compression Based on Low-Rank Decomposition29 Aug 2024
- 2024CUQDS: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift for Trajectory Prediction17 Jun 2024
- 2024α-OCC: Uncertainty-Aware Camera-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction16 Jun 2024
- 2024Situation Monitor: Diversity-Driven Zero-Shot Out-of-Distribution Detection using Budding Ensemble Architecture for Object Detection5 Jun 2024
- 2024Multi-Object Tracking based on Imaging Radar 3D Object Detection3 Jun 2024
- 2024Ambiguous Annotations: When is a Pedestrian not a Pedestrian?14 May 2024
50 newest of 115 All 115 (JSON)
- 2023Milestones in Autonomous Driving and Intelligent Vehicles: Survey of Surveyscited by 75
- 2024Explainable AI for Safe and Trustworthy Autonomous Driving: A Systematic Reviewcited by 52
- 2022Benchmarking Bayesian Deep Learning on Diabetic Retinopathy Detection Taskscited by 49
- 2022Uncertainty Quantification of Collaborative Detection for Self-Drivingcited by 46
- 2022Domain Adaptive Object Detection for Autonomous Driving under Foggy Weathercited by 41
- 2023Collaborative Multi-Object Tracking with Conformal Uncertainty Propagationcited by 27
- 2021Uncertainty for Identifying Open-Set Errors in Visual Object Detectioncited by 26
- 2023Choose Your Simulator Wisely: A Review on Open-source Simulators for Autonomous Drivingcited by 26
- 2024Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Predictioncited by 23
- 2023Confident Object Detection via Conformal Prediction and Conformal Risk Control: an Application to Railway Signalingcited by 22
- 2021Injecting Planning-Awareness into Prediction and Detection Evaluationcited by 21
- 2021Monte Carlo DropBlock for Modelling Uncertainty in Object Detectioncited by 20
12 most cited of 111 All 111 (JSON)
- 2026Rethinking Detection Calibration: A Coordinate and Direction Perspective31 Jul 2026
- 2026Taming Perception Jitter: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Object Detection for Reliable Motion Classification8 Jun 2026
- 2026Calibrating Probabilistic Object Detectors with Annotator Disagreement23 May 2026
- 2026Probabilistic Object Detection with Conformal Prediction8 May 2026
- 2026Query2Uncertainty: Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration for 3D Object Detection under Distribution Shift6 May 2026
- 2026Recipes for Calibration Checks in Safety-Critical Applications29 Apr 2026
- 2026Confidence Calibration under Ambiguous Ground Truth24 Mar 2026
- 2026BadDet+: Robust Backdoor Attacks for Object Detection28 Jan 2026
- 2025Representation Space Constrained Learning with Modality Decoupling for Multimodal Object Detection19 Nov 2025
- 2025CoDS: Enhancing Collaborative Perception in Heterogeneous Scenarios via Domain Separation15 Oct 2025
- 2025Calibrating the Full Predictive Class Distribution of 3D Object Detectors for Autonomous Driving2 Oct 2025
- 2025Cumulative Consensus Score: Label-Free and Model-Agnostic Evaluation of Object Detectors in Deployment16 Sep 2025
12 newest of 111 All 111 (JSON)