mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges

arXiv 2005.07972 ↗First posted 16 May 2020cs.LG econ.EM stat.MEcited by 118

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Abstract (arXiv)

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.

Key facts. Cited by 118 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 16 May 2020.

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 2; 2022: 14; 2023: 14; 2024: 33; 2025: 35; 2026: 20.

118 papers.

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  1. 2024Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 124
  2. 2022Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Seriescited by 71
  3. 2021Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 49
  4. 2023Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networkscited by 40
  5. 2024Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal setscited by 37
  6. 2023Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shiftcited by 29
  7. 2024Uncertainty-Aware Evaluation for Vision-Language Modelscited by 28
  8. 2024Fast yet Safe: Early-Exiting with Risk Controlcited by 27
  9. 2023One-Shot Federated Conformal Predictioncited by 26
  10. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  11. 2024Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Predictioncited by 23
  12. 2022Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regressioncited by 19
38 more
  1. 2024Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibrationcited by 18
  2. 2021Anomalous Edge Detection in Edge Exchangeable Social Network Modelscited by 17
  3. 2023Equal Opportunity of Coverage in Fair Regressioncited by 16
  4. 2024Enhancing Conformal Prediction Using E-Test Statisticscited by 16
  5. 2023Universal distribution of the empirical coverage in split conformal predictioncited by 15
  6. 2022JAWS: Auditing Predictive Uncertainty Under Covariate Shiftcited by 14
  7. 2024Conformal Risk Minimization with Variance Reductioncited by 10
  8. 2022Conformal Credal Self-Supervised Learningcited by 8
  9. 2022Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chainscited by 8
  10. 2024Cross-Validation Conformal Risk Controlcited by 8
  11. 2024Conformal Risk Control for Ordinal Classificationcited by 8
  12. 2022Conformal Prediction Bands for Two-Dimensional Functional Time Seriescited by 7
  13. 2022Exact and Approximate Conformal Inference for Multi-Output Regressioncited by 7
  14. 2024Conformal Convolution and Monte Carlo Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effectscited by 7
  15. 2024CONFLARE: CONFormal LArge language model REtrievalcited by 6
  16. 2022Conformal prediction set for time-seriescited by 5
  17. 2022Improved conformalized quantile regressioncited by 5
  18. 2022Nonparametric Quantile Regression: Non-Crossing Constraints and Conformal Predictioncited by 5
  19. 2022Intervening With Confidence: Conformal Prescriptive Monitoring of Business Processescited by 5
  20. 2024On-line conformalized neural networks ensembles for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity pricescited by 5
  21. 2025Improving the statistical efficiency of cross-conformal predictioncited by 5
  22. 2023Distribution-Free Matrix Prediction Under Arbitrary Missing Patterncited by 4
  23. 2023Prescriptive Process Monitoring Under Resource Constraints: A Reinforcement Learning Approachcited by 4
  24. 2024Adaptive Conformal Inference by Particle Filtering under Hidden Markov Modelscited by 4
  25. 2025Efficient MAP Estimation of LLM Judgment Performance with Prior Transfercited by 4
  26. 2025COMPASS: Robust Feature Conformal Prediction for Medical Segmentation Metricscited by 4
  27. 2023Conformal Loss-Controlling Predictioncited by 3
  28. 2024Metric-Guided Conformal Bounds for Probabilistic Image Reconstructioncited by 3
  29. 2024Uncertainty quantification in metric spacescited by 3
  30. 2024JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-seriescited by 3
  31. 2024A Conformal Approach to Feature-based Newsvendor under Model Misspecificationcited by 3
  32. 2025Conformal Object Detection by Sequential Risk Controlcited by 3
  33. 2023Conformal prediction for frequency-severity modelingcited by 2
  34. 2023Probabilistic Safety Regions Via Finite Families of Scalable Classifierscited by 2
  35. 2024Two-Stage Surrogate Modeling for Data-Driven Design Optimization with Application to Composite Microstructure Generationcited by 2
  36. 2024Distribution-free Conformal Prediction for Ordinal Classificationcited by 2
  37. 2024Structured Learning of Compositional Sequential Interventionscited by 2
  38. 2024Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflictcited by 2

50 most cited of 118 All 118 (JSON)