mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Universal distribution of the empirical coverage in split conformal prediction

arXiv 2303.02770 ↗First posted 5 Mar 2023math.ST cs.LG stat.MLcited by 15

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Abstract (arXiv)

When split conformal prediction operates in batch mode with exchangeable data, we determine the exact distribution of the empirical coverage of prediction sets produced for a finite batch of future observables, as well as the exact distribution of its almost sure limit when the batch size goes to infinity. Both distributions are universal, being determined solely by the nominal miscoverage level and the calibration sample size, thereby establishing a criterion for choosing the minimum required calibration sample size in applications.

Key facts. Cited by 15 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 4 of its 11 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 Mar 2023.

Builds on

4 of 11 references.

References · 4

  1. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 657
  2. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  3. 2020Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challengescited by 118
  4. 2022Distribution-Free Finite-Sample Guarantees and Split Conformal Predictioncited by 4

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 2; 2024: 1; 2025: 5; 2026: 7.

15 papers.

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  1. 2023Transductive conformal inference with adaptive scorescited by 21
  2. 2026Anytime-Valid Conformal Risk Controlcited by 4
  3. 2023Conformal prediction for frequency-severity modelingcited by 2
  4. 2025Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Rankingcited by 2
  5. 2025Stacked conformal predictioncited by 2
  6. 2025Fundamental bounds on efficiency-confidence trade-off for transductive conformal predictioncited by 2
  7. 2025Probabilistic Conformal Coverage Guarantees in Small-Data Settingscited by 2
  8. 2026Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Lawscited by 2
  9. 2024Projected random forests and conformal prediction of circular datacited by 0
  10. 2025Class conditional conformal prediction for multiple inputs by p-value aggregationcited by 0
  11. 2026Conformal Tradeoffs: Operational Profiles Beyond Coveragecited by 0
  12. 2026Skew-adaptive conformal predictioncited by 0
3 more
  1. 2026Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inferencecited by 0
  2. 2026Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQLcited by 0
  3. 2026Scaling Full Conformal Image Classifierscited by 0