mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation

arXiv 2602.01733 ↗First posted 2 Feb 2026stat.ML cs.LGcited by 0

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP) inverts this paradigm by enforcing a predefined upper bound on set size and estimating the resulting coverage guarantee. However, the looseness induced by Markov's inequality within the BCP framework causes a significant gap between the estimated coverage bound and the empirical coverage. In this work, we introduce ST-BCP, a novel method that introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores to narrow the coverage gap. In particular, we develop a computable transformation and prove that it outperforms the baseline identity transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the average coverage gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on common benchmarks.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 39 of its 48 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Feb 2026.

Builds on

39 of 48 references.

References · 39

  1. 2015Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognitioncited by 51,809
  2. 2016Densely Connected Convolutional Networkscited by 6,691
  3. 2019EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 6,415
  4. 2017mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimizationcited by 5,155
  5. 2019Searching for MobileNetV3cited by 1,984
  6. 2016End to End Learning for Self-Driving Carscited by 1,000
  7. 2020A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challengescited by 813
  8. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  9. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 365
  10. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 360
  11. 2022Conformal prediction beyond exchangeabilitycited by 348
  12. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
27 more
  1. 2023Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guaranteescited by 146
  2. 2023Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answeringcited by 131
  3. 2020Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challengescited by 118
  4. 2023Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classescited by 109
  5. 2021Learning Optimal Conformal Classifierscited by 108
  6. 2022Image Data Augmentation for Deep Learning: A Surveycited by 96
  7. 2024Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Predictioncited by 96
  8. 2024Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methodscited by 91
  9. 2024API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Accesscited by 68
  10. 2022Batch Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 66
  11. 2020Conformal prediction for time seriescited by 53
  12. 2023Conformal Prediction for Deep Classifier via Label Rankingcited by 52
  13. 2023How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Controlcited by 50
  14. 2024Conformal Prediction with Learned Featurescited by 23
  15. 2025E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Predictioncited by 23
  16. 2020Conformal e-predictioncited by 20
  17. 2024Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibrationcited by 18
  18. 2024Enhancing Conformal Prediction Using E-Test Statisticscited by 16
  19. 2025Prediction-Powered E-Valuescited by 16
  20. 2022Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alphacited by 14
  21. 2025Backward Conformal Predictioncited by 13
  22. 2025Selective Conformal Risk Controlcited by 10
  23. 2023Measuring Evidence against Exchangeability and Group Invariance with E-valuescited by 7
  24. 2024C-Adapter: Adapting Deep Classifiers for Efficient Conformal Prediction Setscited by 7
  25. 2025Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Predictioncited by 4
  26. 2025Symmetric Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Efficient Uncertainty Setscited by 4
  27. 2024Beyond Conformal Predictors: Adaptive Conformal Inference with Confidence Predictorscited by 2

Built on by

Not cited yet.