Future Rendering neq Future Surface: A Benchmark and Dataset for Dynamic Surface Reconstruction Beyond the Observed Window

Dynamic-scene reconstruction is almost always evaluated inside the observed time window, yet deployment settings such as AR overlays, robot interaction, and anticipatory planning need the future surface: the geometry at times beyond those captured. No standard benchmark measures this. We introduce FutureSurf, a controlled diagnostic benchmark and dataset for future-time surface reconstruction that trades scene diversity for exact future ground truth and falsification controls. A method trains on the observed first 75% of a sequence; we score its extracted per-frame surface on the held-out future by Chamfer distance, reporting absolute future CD as the primary score and the future/observed gap as a diagnostic. The dataset contains eight analytically defined controlled motions, including three falsification controls, with exact per-frame ground-truth meshes. We also provide a ground-truth-side recoverability oracle. The release includes split files, scoring code, a benchmark card, and Croissant metadata. On the controlled motions, the DG-Mesh backbone leaves a 2.7-4.1× gap even for futures predictable in principle (four of five recoverable from observed motion by a fixed rule), while the falsification controls behave as designed (the surface-invariant motion shows no gap). Beyond the contributed dataset, the gap persists across six animated DG-Mesh asset scenes and a second backbone, Deformable-3DGS (2.0-6.6×; both share a deformation-MLP temporal model). The benchmark also shows that future rendering quality and future-surface accuracy are statistically decoupled, so the novel-view-synthesis metrics the field reports do not track future geometry. The future error is structured, concentrating where the surface moves. The dataset, evaluation toolkit, and scoring code are available on Hugging Face and GitHub (https://github.com/Ricky-S/futuresurf).