Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywhere
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Vehicle trajectory prediction is nowadays a fundamental pillar of self-driving cars. Both the industry and research communities have acknowledged the need for such a pillar by providing public benchmarks. While state-of-the-art methods are impressive, i.e., they have no off-road prediction, their generalization to cities outside of the benchmark remains unexplored. In this work, we show that those methods do not generalize to new scenes. We present a method that automatically generates realistic scenes causing state-of-the-art models to go off-road. We frame the problem through the lens of adversarial scene generation. The method is a simple yet effective generative model based on atomic scene generation functions along with physical constraints. Our experiments show that more than 60% of existing scenes from the current benchmarks can be modified in a way to make prediction methods fail (i.e., predicting off-road). We further show that the generated scenes (i) are realistic since they do exist in the real world, and (ii) can be used to make existing models more robust, yielding 30-40 reductions in the off-road rate. The code is available online: https://s-attack.github.io/.
Key facts. Cited by 39 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 37 of its 57 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Dec 2021.
Builds on
37 of 57 references.
References · 37
- 2019nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous drivingcited by 4,485
- 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 728
- 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 532
- 2020VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representationcited by 528
- 2019MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Predictioncited by 417
- 2018ChauffeurNet: Learning to Drive by Imitating the Best and Synthesizing the Worstcited by 391
- 2020Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecastingcited by 380
- 2017DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agentscited by 310
- 2017DeepTest: Automated Testing of Deep-Neural-Network-driven Autonomous Carscited by 249
- 2021IntentNet: Learning to Predict Intention from Raw Sensor Datacited by 158
- 2020Physically Realizable Adversarial Examples for LiDAR Object Detectioncited by 137
- 2021AdvSim: Generating Safety-Critical Scenarios for Self-Driving Vehiclescited by 132
25 more
- 2020Human Trajectory Forecasting in Crowds: A Deep Learning Perspectivecited by 128
- 2019Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactionscited by 117
- 2020Towards Robust LiDAR-based Perception in Autonomous Driving: General Black-box Adversarial Sensor Attack and Countermeasurescited by 95
- 2018GenAttack: Practical Black-box Attacks with Gradient-Free Optimizationcited by 82
- 2020What-If Motion Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 80
- 2019PhysGAN: Generating Physical-World-Resilient Adversarial Examples for Autonomous Drivingcited by 72
- 2020A Survey of Algorithms for Black-Box Safety Validation of Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 71
- 2020Diverse and Admissible Trajectory Forecasting through Multimodal Context Understandingcited by 68
- 2020Dirty Road Can Attack: Security of Deep Learning based Automated Lane Centering under Physical-World Attackcited by 64
- 2021Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planningcited by 63
- 2019Adversarial Objects Against LiDAR-Based Autonomous Driving Systemscited by 62
- 2018DeepBillboard: Systematic Physical-World Testing of Autonomous Driving Systemscited by 50
- 2021HDMapGen: A Hierarchical Graph Generative Model of High Definition Mapscited by 40
- 2019Failure-Scenario Maker for Rule-Based Agent using Multi-agent Adversarial Reinforcement Learning and its Application to Autonomous Drivingcited by 36
- 2017CAR-Net: Clairvoyant Attentive Recurrent Networkcited by 34
- 2021Are socially-aware trajectory prediction models really socially-aware?cited by 32
- 2019Attacking Vision-based Perception in End-to-End Autonomous Driving Modelscited by 31
- 2020The Importance of Prior Knowledge in Precise Multimodal Predictioncited by 25
- 2020PRANK: motion Prediction based on RANKingcited by 22
- 2021Injecting Knowledge in Data-driven Vehicle Trajectory Predictorscited by 18
- 2020Pedestrian Intention Prediction: A Multi-task Perspectivecited by 16
- 2021Safety-aware Motion Prediction with Unseen Vehicles for Autonomous Drivingcited by 15
- 2021A Scenario-Based Platform for Testing Autonomous Vehicle Behavior Prediction Models in Simulationcited by 6
- 2020A Little Fog for a Large Turncited by 5
- 2021SVG-Net: An SVG-based Trajectory Prediction Modelcited by 2
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 6; 2023: 13; 2024: 12; 2025: 6; 2026: 2.
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- 2024GenAD: Generalized Predictive Model for Autonomous Drivingcited by 150
- 2024UniTraj: A Unified Framework for Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 51
- 2023Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Predictioncited by 47
- 2022A generic diffusion-based approach for 3D human pose prediction in the wildcited by 33
- 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Reviewcited by 29
- 2023Towards Motion Forecasting with Real-World Perception Inputs: Are End-to-End Approaches Competitive?cited by 22
- 2024Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 22
- 2023Pre-training on Synthetic Driving Data for Trajectory Predictioncited by 18
- 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory predictioncited by 13
- 2024Reliable Trajectory Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification with Conditioned Diffusion Modelscited by 13
- 2022RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planningcited by 12
- 2022Motion Style Transfer: Modular Low-Rank Adaptation for Deep Motion Forecastingcited by 12
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- 2025Unraveling the Effects of Synthetic Data on End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 12
- 2022Pedestrian 3D Bounding Box Predictioncited by 11
- 2023Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting with Uncertaintycited by 11
- 2023Driving through the Concept Gridlock: Unraveling Explainability Bottlenecks in Automated Drivingcited by 9
- 2024Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving via Polynomial Representationscited by 8
- 2024TrACT: A Training Dynamics Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Predictioncited by 7
- 2024Adaptive Prediction Ensemble: Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Motion Forecastingcited by 7
- 2023nuScenes Knowledge Graph -- A comprehensive semantic representation of traffic scenes for trajectory predictioncited by 6
- 2024Certified Human Trajectory Predictioncited by 6
- 2022An Empirical Bayes Analysis of Object Trajectory Representation Modelscited by 5
- 2023Adversarial Backdoor Attack by Naturalistic Data Poisoning on Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Drivingcited by 5
- 2023DESTINE: Dynamic Goal Queries with Temporal Transductive Alignment for Trajectory Predictioncited by 5
- 2023KI-PMF: Knowledge Integrated Plausible Motion Forecastingcited by 5
- 2024Towards Generalizable and Interpretable Motion Prediction: A Deep Variational Bayes Approachcited by 5
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- 2023Privacy-preserving and Uncertainty-aware Federated Trajectory Prediction for Connected Autonomous Vehiclescited by 4
- 2024Testing autonomous vehicles and AI: perspectives and challenges from cybersecurity, transparency, robustness and fairnesscited by 3
- 2024Efficient Data Representation for Motion Forecasting: A Scene-Specific Trajectory Set Approachcited by 2
- 2025Goal-based Trajectory Prediction for improved Cross-Dataset Generalizationcited by 2
- 2023Robustness Benchmark of Road User Trajectory Prediction Models for Automated Drivingcited by 1
- 2023Attacking Motion Planners Using Adversarial Perception Errorscited by 1
- 2024Map-Free Trajectory Prediction with Map Distillation and Hierarchical Encodingcited by 1
- 2025X-TRACK: Physics-Aware xLSTM for Realistic Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 1
- 2025Boundary-Guided Trajectory Prediction for Road Aware and Physically Feasible Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
- 2025Path Diffuser: Diffusion Model for Data-Driven Traffic Simulatorcited by 0
- 2026Perception-to-Pursuit: Track-Centric Temporal Reasoning for Open-World Drone Detection and Autonomous Chasingcited by 0
- 2026Active Client Selection in Federated Trajectory Prediction with Uncertainty-Awareness and Heterogeneous Complexitycited by 0
- 2026Active Client Selection in Federated Trajectory Prediction with Uncertainty-Awareness and Heterogeneous Complexity27 Aug 2026
- 2026Perception-to-Pursuit: Track-Centric Temporal Reasoning for Open-World Drone Detection and Autonomous Chasing27 Jan 2026
- 2025X-TRACK: Physics-Aware xLSTM for Realistic Vehicle Trajectory Prediction31 Oct 2025
- 2025Path Diffuser: Diffusion Model for Data-Driven Traffic Simulator29 Sep 2025
- 2025Goal-based Trajectory Prediction for improved Cross-Dataset Generalization24 Jul 2025
- 2025AGENTS-LLM: Augmentative GENeration of Challenging Traffic Scenarios with an Agentic LLM Framework18 Jul 2025
- 2025Boundary-Guided Trajectory Prediction for Road Aware and Physically Feasible Autonomous Driving10 May 2025
- 2025Unraveling the Effects of Synthetic Data on End-to-End Autonomous Driving23 Mar 2025
- 2024Map-Free Trajectory Prediction with Map Distillation and Hierarchical Encoding17 Nov 2024
- 2024Efficient Data Representation for Motion Forecasting: A Scene-Specific Trajectory Set Approach30 Jul 2024
- 2024Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving via Polynomial Representations18 Jul 2024
- 2024Adaptive Prediction Ensemble: Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Motion Forecasting12 Jul 2024
27 more
- 2024Reliable Trajectory Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification with Conditioned Diffusion Models23 May 2024
- 2024TrACT: A Training Dynamics Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction18 Apr 2024
- 2024Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction31 Mar 2024
- 2024UniTraj: A Unified Framework for Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Prediction22 Mar 2024
- 2024Certified Human Trajectory Prediction20 Mar 2024
- 2024GenAD: Generalized Predictive Model for Autonomous Driving14 Mar 2024
- 2024Towards Generalizable and Interpretable Motion Prediction: A Deep Variational Bayes Approach10 Mar 2024
- 2024Testing autonomous vehicles and AI: perspectives and challenges from cybersecurity, transparency, robustness and fairness21 Feb 2024
- 2023nuScenes Knowledge Graph -- A comprehensive semantic representation of traffic scenes for trajectory prediction15 Dec 2023
- 2023Attacking Motion Planners Using Adversarial Perception Errors21 Nov 2023
- 2023Driving through the Concept Gridlock: Unraveling Explainability Bottlenecks in Automated Driving25 Oct 2023
- 2023KI-PMF: Knowledge Integrated Plausible Motion Forecasting18 Oct 2023
- 2023DESTINE: Dynamic Goal Queries with Temporal Transductive Alignment for Trajectory Prediction11 Oct 2023
- 2023Pre-training on Synthetic Driving Data for Trajectory Prediction18 Sep 2023
- 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Review10 Aug 2023
- 2023Adversarial Backdoor Attack by Naturalistic Data Poisoning on Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving27 Jun 2023
- 2023Towards Motion Forecasting with Real-World Perception Inputs: Are End-to-End Approaches Competitive?15 Jun 2023
- 2023Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting with Uncertainty13 Apr 2023
- 2023Robustness Benchmark of Road User Trajectory Prediction Models for Automated Driving4 Apr 2023
- 2023Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Prediction28 Mar 2023
- 2023Privacy-preserving and Uncertainty-aware Federated Trajectory Prediction for Connected Autonomous Vehicles8 Mar 2023
- 2022Motion Style Transfer: Modular Low-Rank Adaptation for Deep Motion Forecasting6 Nov 2022
- 2022An Empirical Bayes Analysis of Object Trajectory Representation Models3 Nov 2022
- 2022A generic diffusion-based approach for 3D human pose prediction in the wild11 Oct 2022
- 2022RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planning4 Oct 2022
- 2022Pedestrian 3D Bounding Box Prediction28 Jun 2022
- 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory prediction15 May 2022
- 2024UniTraj: A Unified Framework for Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 51
- 2023Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Predictioncited by 47
- 2023The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Reviewcited by 29
- 2023Towards Motion Forecasting with Real-World Perception Inputs: Are End-to-End Approaches Competitive?cited by 22
- 2024Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 22
- 2023Pre-training on Synthetic Driving Data for Trajectory Predictioncited by 18
- 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory predictioncited by 13
- 2022RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planningcited by 12
- 2022Motion Style Transfer: Modular Low-Rank Adaptation for Deep Motion Forecastingcited by 12
- 2022Pedestrian 3D Bounding Box Predictioncited by 11
- 2023Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting with Uncertaintycited by 11
- 2023Driving through the Concept Gridlock: Unraveling Explainability Bottlenecks in Automated Drivingcited by 9
12 most cited of 33 All 33 (JSON)
- 2026Active Client Selection in Federated Trajectory Prediction with Uncertainty-Awareness and Heterogeneous Complexity27 Aug 2026
- 2026Perception-to-Pursuit: Track-Centric Temporal Reasoning for Open-World Drone Detection and Autonomous Chasing27 Jan 2026
- 2025X-TRACK: Physics-Aware xLSTM for Realistic Vehicle Trajectory Prediction31 Oct 2025
- 2025Goal-based Trajectory Prediction for improved Cross-Dataset Generalization24 Jul 2025
- 2025Boundary-Guided Trajectory Prediction for Road Aware and Physically Feasible Autonomous Driving10 May 2025
- 2024Map-Free Trajectory Prediction with Map Distillation and Hierarchical Encoding17 Nov 2024
- 2024Efficient Data Representation for Motion Forecasting: A Scene-Specific Trajectory Set Approach30 Jul 2024
- 2024Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving via Polynomial Representations18 Jul 2024
- 2024Adaptive Prediction Ensemble: Improving Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Motion Forecasting12 Jul 2024
- 2024TrACT: A Training Dynamics Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction18 Apr 2024
- 2024Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction31 Mar 2024
- 2024UniTraj: A Unified Framework for Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Prediction22 Mar 2024
12 newest of 33 All 33 (JSON)